Flop stab multiway

The SB is spazzy and aggressive - only 24 hands so far, but is running 38/33 with a 12.5% 3bet.

The button I don't really know for sure yet, but seems very fishy, and his sizing on the button looks fishy too.

I think 4betting pre is arguable, but on the other hand it probably takes a lot of the air out of the agrotards range, so I called to let him bluff at it postflop, then the buttons overcall seems to have shut him down.

Do you like a stab here with the button still to act, if not, what's your plan?

Also, if the agrotard checkraises such a dry flop after this preflop action (in these positions) do you like just jamming it in with the overcards?

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $18.67 (186.7 bb)
SB: $10.45 (104.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $21.80 (218 bb)
UTG: $10.93 (109.3 bb)
MP: $8.98 (89.8 bb)
CO: $10.65 (106.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A Q
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.30, SB raises to $0.90, Hero calls $0.80, BTN calls $0.60

Flop: ($2.70) 9 3 3 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.90

I don't really like the flop bet. What are we repping? Not 99, and we shouldn't have any 3x in our range here. So this looks like air, flush draw or a weak pair, all of which hate being raised. We have showdown value here and flop isn't exactly action central for a 3bet pot, so I don't see why we can't just c/c flop and reasses turn.

Why is button's sizing fishy? He's stealing at x3, pretty much standard.

Pre flop I think calling or 4betting are both viable, I probably call but it depends just how fishy I feel the button is. Did you see how he doubled his stack?

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Why is button's sizing fishy? He's stealing at x3, pretty much standard.

I agree with a lot of what you said but I don't really agree with this - I see very few regs opening the button so big - it's by no means certain, but it does incline me to think of him as a bit fishy.

Seems like a very good spot for a cold 4b bluff to me with good blockers. I'd make it $1.80 or so. As played, I don't mind the bet if you're prepared to shove any turn if BTN calls and continue your QQ+ story.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Seems like a very good spot for a cold 4b bluff to me with good blockers. I'd make it $1.80 or so. As played, I don't mind the bet if you're prepared to shove any turn if BTN calls and continue your QQ+ story.

There'd be a 65bb turn pot with nearly 160bb behind (between BTN and I), so I presume you misread the stack sizes when you say shove turn? As deep as we are, if BTN called flop I'd probably barrel any turn quite big (like nearly pot).

If the agro SB c/r this flop, I'm happy just shoving it in (we're about 100bb deep together) - thoughts?

Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

I agree with a lot of what you said but I don't really agree with this - I see very few regs opening the button so big - it's by no means certain, but it does incline me to think of him as a bit fishy.

I'm interested to see what others have to say here. In my experience at 10nl, bb vs button generally tend to call too light, and 3bet too tight. I'm not adjusting from x3 here if I think bb is calling too much. If bb is folding a lot, then I'll drop to x2.5

I certainly do not think that a x3 open from the button at 10nl is indicative of a fish. Whether it's optimal sizing is another matter. But the vast majority of players at 10nl are not betting optimally, so I don't anticipate a x3 open size to be a worrying leak at these stakes, even if it is sub optimal, which I'm not convinced about. It depends who's on the bb. In this case, it's you, and you say you don't have much history with the button. Maybe he's testing the water.

Slam dunk 4bet pre imo.

As played, I wouldn't stab this texture. The flop will check around most of the time if nobody has anything and we won't get anybody to hero fold overpairs. Plus we have showdown value and we'll improve on the turn around 12% of the time too.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'm interested to see what others have to say here. In my experience at 10nl, bb vs button generally tend to call too light, and 3bet too tight. I'm not adjusting from x3 here if I think bb is calling too much. If bb is folding a lot, then I'll drop to x2.5

I certainly do not think that a x3 open from the button at 10nl is indicative of a fish. Whether it's optimal sizing is another matter. But the vast majority of players at 10nl are not betting optimally, so I don't anticipate a x3 open size to be a worrying leak at these stakes, even if it is sub optimal, which I'm not convinced about. It depends who's on the bb. In this case, it's you, and you say you don't have much history with the button. Maybe he's testing the water.

This really depends on WHY you are button opening. If you are opening the btn TO STEAL, and if the steal fails you fall back on the benefit of having position and initiative, then 2x has to work 57% of the time, while 3x has to work 66.7% of the time.

So if you 2x, if SB has a fold to steal of 82%, then BB needs a fold to steal of 69.5% for you to steal ANY two. Even if BB cold calls 30-31% (which is a lot), we can still almost profitably steal any two.

If you 3x, if SB has a fold to steal of 85% (will assume somewhat higher fold due to sizing), then BB needs a fold to steal of 78.4% for you to steal ANY two. If BB cold calls about 22% (which is not that much), we can't profitably steal any two.

This is definitely a mindset thing about why we're raising the btn. You saying if the BB is folding a lot you will actually DROP your sizing to 2.5x is indicative of wanting action on your hands. Only about 2% of ALL your hands are raising the btn for action (JJ-AA let's say). Compared to approximately 45%-50% of other hands that could be opening the btn to STEAL.

On a dry flop if I'm last to act I routinely bet half pot with anything which usually takes it down. OOP I'm more likely to give up.

Since it's a 3-bet pot, which makes it protected to some degree, I'd prefer stabbing the turn after SB checked twice, if that happened. I'd size the stab closer to half pot too.

As played, if SB c/r's, I'd just fold. I think shipping overs is a big mistake. Those kinds of plays will sometimes work but overall they are a cost center not a profit center.

If BB cold calls about 22% (which is not that much), we can't profitably steal any two.

Well, bb can call 22% and we still make some money because our hand has equity, whatever we have. And if he's calling too much, then he's not hitting enough flops to continue to my cbet, which means we take down a slightly larger pot on the flop with a reasonable frequency.

You saying if the BB is folding a lot you will actually DROP your sizing to 2.5x is indicative of wanting action on your hands.

Well, it's not that I want action when I open, it's that I want to be able to steal cheaper, thus making more money. It depends if the bb adjusts his calling range to my sizing adjustment.

I just tend to find myself in trickier spots more often when I minraise, certainly at my stakes. I expect people to call wider because it's low stakes, so I want to raise my value hands more, and for that to not be transparent, I need to raise my steals to the same value.

You're right about WHY we're raising the button; if it's to steal, then we want folds, which doesn't happen all that often when we minraise. Not at 5nl zoom, anyway, which is currently where I'm grinding.

I do sometimes minraise the button with marginal steals, but I'm relying on the fact that most people are not adjusting at low stake zoom games, and I'm minraising people who don't auto-call the bb vs a minraise with everything they don't 3bet.

There's a good chance I'm misplaying the button though, I doubt very much I'm playing optimally because I too am guilty of autopilotting when multitabling at zoom.

Originally Posted by abelardx

As played, if SB c/r's, I'd just fold. I think shipping overs is a big mistake. Those kinds of plays will sometimes work but overall they are a cost center not a profit center.

What can he comfortably check-raise here though? I doubt he wants to check an overpair because it's multiway (so people will tend to play more straightforward) and there's a significant chance it checks through, leading to either a third heart or an overcard to his pair turning (and even if they don't he just missed out on a street of value), so I think he leads with an overpair. Even if he does check-shove an overpair, we probably have some outs, maybe even 6, and we have the backdoor nut flush.

He can check-ship a flush draw, but we block the nut flush draw and if he ships KhTh or similar we're slightly better than flipping, KhQh is only 41% vs our hand.

Literally the only hands he can comfortably check-shove are the 3 combos of 99, and 1 of 33 which he probably doesn't 3bet preflop. I also don't believe he will checkraise these too often here, because on this texture he's never going to believe we can have anything to pay him off with, so he'll rather flat and keep the air in our range (or let us value town ourselves with an overpair) than checkraise.

If he checkraises, he's so polarised and for the reasons above I think he has so little in his value range, I can't ever see folding. I also don't want to just flat a raise and let him have a chance to draw out or put me in a tough spot on the turn so I prefer just shipping it in.

I'm _far_ more worried if he flats the flop.

Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

What can he comfortably check-raise here though? I doubt he wants to check an overpair because it's multiway (so people will tend to play more straightforward) and there's a significant chance it checks through, leading to either a third heart or an overcard to his pair turning (and even if they don't he just missed out on a street of value), so I think he leads with an overpair. Even if he does check-shove an overpair, we probably have some outs, maybe even 6, and we have the backdoor nut flush.

He can check-ship a flush draw, but we block the nut flush draw and if he ships KhTh or similar we're flipping.

Literally the only hands he can comfortably check-shove are the 3 combos of 99, and 1 of 33 which he probably doesn't 3bet preflop. I also don't believe he will checkraise these too often here, because on this texture he's never going to believe we can have anything to pay him off with, so he'll rather flat and keep the air in our range (or let us value town ourselves with an overpair) than checkraise.

If he checkraises, he's so polarised and for the reasons above I think he has so little in his value range, I can't ever see folding. I'm _far_ more worried if he flats the flop.

When you cold call you signify some strength or at least that you're trying to rep some strong hand. Because of this SB can be fairly confident that you will bet, especially on a board like this. People in SB's position definitely go for a c/r here with QQ+, knowing that you will bet a very high % of the time.

You block QQ/AA which is nice, but I'd also fold to a c/r. Nobody is messing around here too light when you look so strong.