Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
I'm interested to see what others have to say here. In my experience at 10nl, bb vs button generally tend to call too light, and 3bet too tight. I'm not adjusting from x3 here if I think bb is calling too much. If bb is folding a lot, then I'll drop to x2.5

I certainly do not think that a x3 open from the button at 10nl is indicative of a fish. Whether it's optimal sizing is another matter. But the vast majority of players at 10nl are not betting optimally, so I don't anticipate a x3 open size to be a worrying leak at these stakes, even if it is sub optimal, which I'm not convinced about. It depends who's on the bb. In this case, it's you, and you say you don't have much history with the button. Maybe he's testing the water.

This really depends on WHY you are button opening. If you are opening the btn TO STEAL, and if the steal fails you fall back on the benefit of having position and initiative, then 2x has to work 57% of the time, while 3x has to work 66.7% of the time.

So if you 2x, if SB has a fold to steal of 82%, then BB needs a fold to steal of 69.5% for you to steal ANY two. Even if BB cold calls 30-31% (which is a lot), we can still almost profitably steal any two.

If you 3x, if SB has a fold to steal of 85% (will assume somewhat higher fold due to sizing), then BB needs a fold to steal of 78.4% for you to steal ANY two. If BB cold calls about 22% (which is not that much), we can't profitably steal any two.

This is definitely a mindset thing about why we're raising the btn. You saying if the BB is folding a lot you will actually DROP your sizing to 2.5x is indicative of wanting action on your hands. Only about 2% of ALL your hands are raising the btn for action (JJ-AA let's say). Compared to approximately 45%-50% of other hands that could be opening the btn to STEAL.