Villain is 15/12 over 67 hands, hasn't 3bet once, cbets a lot so far, but I am going to presume he doesn't get out of line a ton, since a 15/12 is going to have it a lot so many of those cbets are going to be with a legit hand. Too early to say whether he's positionally aware.

I'm gonna be conservative and say his CO OR is strong, and given that he's nitty I'm going to give him something PP rich like [AA-22, AJo+, KQo+, QJs, KJs+, ATs+]

Wouldn't call pre here 100bb deep, but as deep as we are I think it's OK.

Not sure about flop, split between folding and calling. Don't like having the BB behind me, but in a multi-way pot and after my flop call I think he's relatively unlikely to get out of line, and if he has hit the flop for less than 2 pair he probably wants to keep me along so is likely to call rather than raise.

Nits flop betting range into two of us is: [AA-KK, JJ, 88, AK, AQdd, ATdd]

When nittychops checks the turn, I give him a mixture of 1. Slowplayed monsters and 2. Draws and hands he just wants to show down now. The monsters are [KK, JJ, 88] which is 34% of his range, his draws are [AQdd, ATdd] and he wants to show down [AA, AK].

I think there's nothing he can c/f turn with, well, maybe being this nitty he can c/f AK and even AA, but still I don't think he c/f often for one bet, so if we're going to bet turn we have to barrel river.

River doesn't look great initially, but he really has so little AQ that it can't have improved him and is more likely to scare him than anything else.

Even if we give him credit to c/r river with his monsters, he's likely folding with 2/3 of what he checked to us. I doubt he gives us a chance to check behind with his monsters anyway, at least not all the time, so it's even better than that.

His river calling range is [AQdd, KK, JJ, 88] for 8 combos which we will discount somewhat for him giving us a chance to check behind a bare jack.

His river c/f range is [AA, AK, KQs, ATdd] for 16 combos. I don't think we can discount any of this - I don't think a 15/12 ever turns any of this into a bluff.

So I think the river is a definite bet, and if we bet it and are to rep anything that he's afraid of, we have to bet big, so I pretty much pot it.

Thoughts?

25NL 6max zoom:

Hero (BTN): $48.06 (192.2 bb)
SB: $46.53 (186.1 bb)
BB: $25.58 (102.3 bb)
UTG: $56.24 (225 bb)
MP: $20.07 (80.3 bb)
CO: $47.33 (189.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with T A
2 folds, CO raises to $0.62, Hero calls $0.62, SB folds, BB calls $0.37

Flop: ($1.96) K 8 J (3 players)
BB checks, CO bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25, BB folds

Turn: ($4.46) J (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $2.75, CO calls $2.75

River: ($9.96) T (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $9