Nit check-calls pairing turn, barrel river?

Villain is 15/12 over 67 hands, hasn't 3bet once, cbets a lot so far, but I am going to presume he doesn't get out of line a ton, since a 15/12 is going to have it a lot so many of those cbets are going to be with a legit hand. Too early to say whether he's positionally aware.

I'm gonna be conservative and say his CO OR is strong, and given that he's nitty I'm going to give him something PP rich like [AA-22, AJo+, KQo+, QJs, KJs+, ATs+]

Wouldn't call pre here 100bb deep, but as deep as we are I think it's OK.

Not sure about flop, split between folding and calling. Don't like having the BB behind me, but in a multi-way pot and after my flop call I think he's relatively unlikely to get out of line, and if he has hit the flop for less than 2 pair he probably wants to keep me along so is likely to call rather than raise.

Nits flop betting range into two of us is: [AA-KK, JJ, 88, AK, AQdd, ATdd]

When nittychops checks the turn, I give him a mixture of 1. Slowplayed monsters and 2. Draws and hands he just wants to show down now. The monsters are [KK, JJ, 88] which is 34% of his range, his draws are [AQdd, ATdd] and he wants to show down [AA, AK].

I think there's nothing he can c/f turn with, well, maybe being this nitty he can c/f AK and even AA, but still I don't think he c/f often for one bet, so if we're going to bet turn we have to barrel river.

River doesn't look great initially, but he really has so little AQ that it can't have improved him and is more likely to scare him than anything else.

Even if we give him credit to c/r river with his monsters, he's likely folding with 2/3 of what he checked to us. I doubt he gives us a chance to check behind with his monsters anyway, at least not all the time, so it's even better than that.

His river calling range is [AQdd, KK, JJ, 88] for 8 combos which we will discount somewhat for him giving us a chance to check behind a bare jack.

His river c/f range is [AA, AK, KQs, ATdd] for 16 combos. I don't think we can discount any of this - I don't think a 15/12 ever turns any of this into a bluff.

So I think the river is a definite bet, and if we bet it and are to rep anything that he's afraid of, we have to bet big, so I pretty much pot it.

Thoughts?

25NL 6max zoom:

Hero (BTN): $48.06 (192.2 bb)
SB: $46.53 (186.1 bb)
BB: $25.58 (102.3 bb)
UTG: $56.24 (225 bb)
MP: $20.07 (80.3 bb)
CO: $47.33 (189.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with T A
2 folds, CO raises to $0.62, Hero calls $0.62, SB folds, BB calls $0.37

Flop: ($1.96) K 8 J (3 players)
BB checks, CO bets $1.25, Hero calls $1.25, BB folds

Turn: ($4.46) J (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $2.75, CO calls $2.75

River: ($9.96) T (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $9

I would just take the showdown we're being given. Yah we'll lose to Kx often, but I don't think we can take him off Kx either given FD bricked and we rep narrow (jx only).

I think he shows up with enough FD's that c/c turn that we can win with our Tx sometimes.

Originally Posted by griffey24

I would just take the showdown we're being given. Yah we'll lose to Kx often, but I don't think we can take him off Kx either given FD bricked and we rep narrow (jx only).

Don't you think it's OK here that we rep narrow? Like we rep really clear - he's in no doubt what we're repping.

Given that we flatted flop, I think all our bricked FDs are checking behind turn for the free card, so I really don't think we look like a busted FD.

I actually think a 15/12 is entirely capable of folding Kx here.

BTW, I will think again - I'm grateful for your advice, and spew is one of my biggest problems, so I'm not trying to contradict you or reject your advice, I just don't see how a river bet (given turn as played) can be so bad.

I think he shows up with enough FD's that c/c turn that we can win with our Tx sometimes.

I think we have barely any SD value with Tx, because I don't think he can really have many FDs to c/c turn with after the flop - what other FDs than AQdd and ATdd do you think he bets the flop into 2 opponents with?

EDIT TO ADD: Just realised he can bet flop then c/c turn with KQdd as well, but we can't beat it so doesn't improve our showdown value.

Once the float doesn't work, just give up and save your chips. I know from personal experience that trying to win hands by making people fold is very very expensive. You took a shot which is fine, but it didn't work, so that kinda officially makes it a bad spot now. Just move on to the next hand.

BTW, and I bring this up because I'm a recovering lagtard. Have you ever tried to play a couple sessions with no bluffing whatsoever? It was way harder than I thought. Turns out that a lot of my bluffs were not good ideas that just didn't work out. They were actually emotionally driven stuff that I had little control over, at the beginning anyways. Not bluffing much is not as much fun but it is much more profitable.

Originally Posted by abelardx

Once the float doesn't work, just give up and save your chips. I know from personal experience that trying to win hands by making people fold is very very expensive. You took a shot which is fine, but it didn't work, so that kinda officially makes it a bad spot now. Just move on to the next hand.

BTW, and I bring this up because I'm a recovering lagtard. Have you ever tried to play a couple sessions with no bluffing whatsoever? It was way harder than I thought. Turns out that a lot of my bluffs were not good ideas that just didn't work out. They were actually emotionally driven stuff that I had little control over, at the beginning anyways. Not bluffing much is not as much fun but it is much more profitable.

Thanks for the reply. I will definitely try what you suggest (a session without any bluffs whatsoever) - I think it'll be interesting. FWIW, I don't really consider myself a LAGtard but I definitely do have a remaining spew problem, if anything, I guess I am like you described a "recovering lagtard" so I still need to learn to pick my spots better when I do run bluffs.

The problem with this particular turn card is the strength of his c/c range.

If the turn was some brick 6x, then I would say his turn c/c range is probably Jx, 8x some mid pair hand. Probably not top pair. I think ppl can convince themselves of letting go of mid/bottom pair to another river bet.

Now on a Jx turn people will show up with AA, AK/KQ and sometimes even Jx c/c the turn. So now they have a stronger c/c range AND the FD bricks AND you rep only Jx.

I like it much more if the flush gets there. Though note, after thinking about the above I do agree that our Tx doesn't have that much SD value on the river, but I still don't think we get enough folds.

And you don't need to rationalize disagreeing, that's the whole point of posting hands!

Originally Posted by griffey24

The problem with this particular turn card is the strength of his c/c range.

If the turn was some brick 6x, then I would say his turn c/c range is probably Jx, 8x some mid pair hand. Probably not top pair. I think ppl can convince themselves of letting go of mid/bottom pair to another river bet.

Agreed. I see how this turn makes his c/c range much stronger.

Now on a Jx turn people will show up with AA, AK/KQ and sometimes even Jx c/c the turn. So now they have a stronger c/c range AND the FD bricks AND you rep only Jx.

I like it much more if the flush gets there.

You see that really doesn't compute, so I obviously need to think about this more. I really don't like it if the flush gets there - I think after we flat the flop, we've decided to play a draw passively and are more likely to check behind the turn for the free card, so I think flatting the flop then betting turn with a supposed FD looks suspicious.

I can see how narrow we rep though, since I can't think of anything at all that {flat flop, bet turn when checked to} looks like other than Jx.

And you don't need to rationalize disagreeing, that's the whole point of posting hands!

Thanks! I just don't want to come across like I'm trying to rationalise or make excuses for my play - I mean, I'm here to learn, so yeah I'm often going to disagree, but it's not because I think I know better.

If I'm flatting a particular flop it's because I'm generally trying to balance with the rest of my range on a particular board.

If I have 89dd on Jx5d2d, I may flat this flop because most of my range (88,99,TT,Jx) will be flatting this flop. Raising this flop is very polarized to either 222/555 or a FD and given the number of combos of FD's to sets, it really weights our range to FD's if we raise.

By contrast, if I flat 88-TT,Jx and face a turn check. I will often be betting these hands. Since I'm betting these hands I can also bet my FD's on the turn. Calling the flop with a FD does not need to equate to checking back turn with a FD at all. They are completely separate actions. Also very few people take bet turn + c/r turn lines much anymore, so there's less risk getting blown off the draw if you bet.

Very interesting.

That said, I still think it looks suspicious - here's why. I don't think anyone at 25NL is balancing their range in this way.

I think it may happen the other way around, like if I spike a set on a 2-tone board and I'm heads up with an aggressive player I'm going to raise hoping for him to think I have a draw, but I don't think anyone is flatting a draw in order not to look too much like a draw.

I definitely think that lots of 25NL players are going to realise that a raise on Jx5d2d is quite likely to be a flush draw, but I don't think that leads to the adjustment you talked about of flatting flush draws because there are more of them than legit monsters.

If people are flatting with flush draws at 25NL, I think it's much more often because they are passive and that's just what they do, rather than it being any kind of adjustment.

All that said, this is an interesting discussion - it's nice to unexpectedly get into a discussion of this kind of stuff (balancing ranges) when dissecting this hand, as it's not something I have reached the stage of thinking about yet, at least not to the extent you're talking about.

Don't get me wrong, people are very likely raising Axdd, KQdd, KTdd on Jx5d2d.

But that still leaves 67dd, 68dd, 78dd, 79dd, 89dd, 8Tdd, 9Tdd, some Qxdd, some ppl even flat Jxdd. I doubt everyone at 25nl is rampant raising EVERY FD. Sure overs+FD yes, nut FD yes but not low FD's I don't think.

Is this nit ever calling any of that [Kx AA etc.] range to an overbet here? If we make it like 15 we probably fold out his entire range a huge amount of the time. 15 needs to work 60% of the time, this seems pretty damn achievable. I'd bet 15. It makes little sense for Jx to bet 15, but who cares if he's just a nit who never wants to call 15 with his capped range.