NL $25 - best river line OOP FH

Party No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed)

Button ($36.84)
SB ($29.74)
Hero (BB) ($25)
MP ($21.89)
UTG ($53.01)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, K
1 fold, MP calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises $0.75, MP calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.10) 9, 10, 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.75, MP calls $1.75

Turn: ($5.60) 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.99, MP calls $3.99

River: ($13.58) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $18.26 (All-In), MP calls $15.15 (All-In)

Total pot: $43.88

Results below:

Spoiler: Show

Hero had 9, K (full house, nines over tens).
MP had 10, 6 (full house, tens over nines).
Outcome: MP won $41.69

Villian stats: http://scr.hu/0raf/xd0jn

Preflop
Iso raise K9s is in the middle of my raising range imo.

Flop
I cbet for (thin value) +EV I guess, I expect I lot of floats from V. here, any 9x or Tx, gutshots, straightdraws, flushdraws and overpairs.

Turn
Then another T comes then I thinks V.flop float range now has more draws in it, so I bet again, planning to fire the third barrel on blank rivers.

River
Have not done a crEV-sim yet, but I think it's the highest EV here, is to shove. Imo I will get called by all overpairs, all Tx(I only lose to two combos, which have rivered a FH), 55, I chop with all 9x.

Thoughs??

Thx in advance guys

All draws brick, and he won't call a jam with low pairs that got counterfeited but might bluff them, seems like a c/c to me.

I don't understand this river shove. I think 55 and overpairs fold. We're value towning ourself.

I'd check pre. As played post flop I prob do b/f flop and turn, but this river I think c/c or make a small b/f.

Besides he doesn't have overpairs. Surely JJ+ raise pre, not l/c. And I've looked at the spoiler now, if he has this hand he has a lot more than 2 combos of Tx. I do expect 55 to call river though, having seen how bad this guy is.

hands that call this shove that we lose to - T2s T3s T4s T5s T6 T7 T8 T9 TJ TQ TK TA (I make that 55 combos)

hands that call that we beat - 55 (that's 3 combos)

vs the Tx and 55 in his range, for every 58 hands, we win 3 and lose 55.

This river shove is massively -ev.

I hate the river shove too. Leaving aside everything else though, re:

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'd check pre

I think K9s is a mile ahead of this guys l/c range, and even if it wasn't, he's likely just going to pay to see a flop then fit-or-fold it anyway, so I'd be making this $1.50 with probably about the top 25% of hands, maybe even wider with reads, then cbetting very liberally but quite small, like half pot.

Ok thanks for repsponses Guys, b/f small is best imo, because if I check then my hand is face up that I don't hold a T and I'm very likely to get bluffed.

DUPLICATE POST

Originally Posted by Capua

Ok thanks for repsponses Guys, b/f small is best imo, because if I check then my hand is face up that I don't hold a T and I'm very likely to get bluffed.

Well, you do have the nut bluffcatcher so given the guys stats which indicate he might be stabby, and the fact that you can look like air here when you check the river, I don't mind c/c to let him bluff at it. Given his stats, he is also liable to value town himself with 55 if you check.

C/C on the river you want to look at it from an odds point of view - you'll be getting about 2:1 if he shoves, he has about as much Tx as 9x, and he'll bluff sometimes too, he can also rarely have 55. I think it's a good spot to c/c.

Sorry maybe the b/f camp can elaborate? Why is this a b/f? Vs what range is this a bet?

Any reads on villain? This is only close to a bet to begin with if villain is the type to call down all Axdd and stuff like AK/AQ/AJ here and get to river with A high AND also call a smallish bet with A high.

If he doesn't get to river with A high then I really don't get what you guys are hoping to get called by exactly.

To be fair when I said I check flop, I didn't know this guy l/c T6o. I didn't look at the stats link. I'd assume I have an essay of notes on this guy and would indeed raise him. Normally I'm quite happy to see a free flop with this hand, but yeah we're way ahead of his l/c range.

Sorry maybe the b/f camp can elaborate? Why is this a b/f? Vs what range is this a bet?

He has a lot of Ax, he's a donk and there's 2pr on the board, so ace high is suddenly awesome, hence small b/f. I can't see him jamming anything other than a ten.

I probably like c/c more, but I don't think b/f is terrible. I can easily be wrong, I agree it's thin value at best.

If he has a lot of Ax, he certainly has a low of KQ/KJ/QJ/diamonds/low pairs.

Not all Ax will necessarily be calling down two barrels, while most of the above hands will.

Not all Ax will call a river barrel, but most of the above hands might choose to bluff facing a river check.

OP - do some hand combo estimates on how many possible combos will call a river bet, and how many won't call and how many might bluff etc. That should make the river line pretty clear.

If he has a lot of Ax, he certainly has a low of KQ/KJ/QJ/diamonds/low pairs.

I guess you're right. Again, if this guy is l/c T6o, his l/c range is so ridiculously wide that he's more likely to have king high or worse, something that always folds, vs ace high and better. I'd expect him to call a $4 bet with ace high pretty often, but if he has junk more often then maybe we should let him fire.

I think I'd refer to the essay I'd have on this guy. We must know a lot about him if he's playing lots of hands. If he checks behind his king high crap at showdown, then I'm betting $4 and expect to see calls reasonably often with ace high and 9x, with the occasional jam from Tx. But if he's spewy on river, yeah c/c is going to be way better.

Seems pretty close between chk/call and c/f river to me (and this nit would normally fold vs this guy). This villain will call with nothing we beat, will not bluff the river, has twice as much 10x as 9x and we're chopping at best if he bets.

I mean i don't think anyone would expect to see T6o here. That is very light, so he probably ends up to river with 60 Tx boats combos.

To c/c a river shove we need to be good 34.5% of the time. So he needs 32 bluff combos on river.

This player gets to river with 36 combos of counterfeited pairs (pocket 2,3,4,6,7,8)
Gets to river with all QJ/KQ/KJ/J8/78 - 80 combos
Gets to river with any diamonds hands - seemingly stuff like 73dd even - I'll estimate around 50 combos of diamonds
Total bluffable combos = 166

So the question is out of these 166 combos, does he bluff 32 combos. Or 19.2% of the time, ~1/5 times he has complete air, will he shove? I don't think that's unreasonable at all.

This is assuming he wouldn't shove any Ax that gets to river, which he might also do.

This is also assuming he wouldn't shove any 9x on river, which he also should probably do facing a check.

Hopefully the above (166 bluffable combos) also makes it clear that betting this river is probably a pretty bad plan.

River shove is really bad. Everything bricked so your hand is good a ton, just check and let him bluff. If he's too passive then just check fold to a big bet.