QQ CO vs BU 130bb deep and he calls my 4bet.

Villain is pretty unknown. I only have about 10 hands on him, but it's enough to say hes probably not some 80/60 maniac. I think my 4bet should have been slightly bigger given stack sizes. Maybe $2.60 ish?

I'm more than happy to get this in pre, but when he just calls the 4bet I feel like he has KK+ very often and won't be super comfortable getting money in the times he has AK/JJ-.

On the flop, I feel like a cbet is pretty spewy, and probably chases away anything I beat.

Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

SB ($10)
BB ($10.25)
UTG ($4)
Hero (MP) ($12.70)
Button ($13.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q, Q
1 fold, Hero raises $0.30, Button raises $0.90, 2 folds, Hero raises $2.40 (edited from 2.10), Button calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.95) 8, 3, 8 (2 players)

Hero c/f or c/c?

He prob has JJ+, AK.

If you bet, you get value from JJ & AK sometimes. I b/f 3.50.

I'm not sure wtf happened with this hand history, but my actual raise size was 2.40, hence the button calls 1.50.

Should it have been closer to 2.60? Also, flop action is hero cbet 2.40, villain minraise. If I call the minraise there $5 left in stacks and $16 in pot.

I'd just ship over his minraise. It's not like villain will be putting any more money in w/ his bluffs, and folding seems too tight.

It's Pelion! He has plenty of AK in his range that you can b/f.

Do you think he ever has TT/JJ in this spot jv? That said, I think he'd be more likely to shove TT/JJ on a "safe" flop which would lean towards a range of KK+ for min raising which would make this a b/f.

There are no reads or history that let me estimate his range better, default I assume TT/JJ are in his range but weighted less than AA/KK/AK.

The fact that he calls the 4bet instead of shove can also have multiple explanations which are really player dependent. Is he the kind of guy that would trapcall with AA instead of shove? Would he shove AK because 'there is no other way to play it' or can he call to see if an A or K hits the board and what you do? Can he have a hand he doesn't like to lay down like TT or AQs? Even over a small sample size if he shows a loose style (at 10NL pre and post are often strongly correlated, even moreso than when you go higher) then I'm more inclined to widen his range and AA/KK would be more of a cooler.

dunno how you could ever not b/c this flop unless you planned on c/shoving

why bikes? my reasoning would be that a min raise after this line is ridiculously strong from an unknown so we have to put him on the top of the range playing transparently rather than derping about in a 4 bet pot. that's coming from a tournament player though

Originally Posted by Pascal

why bikes? my reasoning would be that a min raise after this line is ridiculously strong from an unknown so we have to put him on the top of the range playing transparently rather than derping about in a 4 bet pot. that's coming from a tournament player though

by this logic we shouldnt even 4b in the first place.

We 4bet because I think he can get it in with worse, and also fold a lot of 3bets bluffs - but call 4bet/minraise cbet looks like a much stronger line to me than 5bet shove pre.

On the other hand, we are pretty close to the top of our range here and he is unknown.... I'm still on the fence.

Originally Posted by bikes

by this logic we shouldnt even 4b in the first place.

the min raise on the flop is what makes me suspicious, no problem with the flat but i think he ships the weaker parts of his range on the flop rather than min raising. idk that through me off a bit.

bet-get it in on the flop (i.e. call if he shoves, 3b if he raises)

If I were villain, I'd be minraising my bluffs since we effectively leverage our stack with a minraise. Would be really hard to for hero to be rebluffing too with no reads and after villain 3b/called pre.

It's 10NL don't see how this is ever a bluff, even if it would be a ridiculously sick spot

lol minraise bluff

This is COvBU at a 5-handed table against an unknown, and the flop is 883tt. People don't get dealt KK+ every time we get dealt QQ, and this isn't even the most likely line KK+ would take preflop.

I think we get most of our value here against other overpairs and against bad players who have hands they don't want to fold, so I'm gonna treat his range like it's pretty inelastic (even though it's not really), so I'd b/c like $3+.

No need to go bigger pre, btw. We're still shallow enough that it's lolbad for villain to call with PPs/SCs. Well, I guess he could call with SCs if we're planning on c/f'ing on a 883tt flop...

Not getting it in postflop seems pretty ridiculous. Either c/jam flop or b/c smallish. I'd c/jam as he rarely has AA/KK and probably auto bets some air.

you guys are all off the mark...check call and allow him to spew

If we give villain a range of TT+, AK, let's assume he will bet if we check. We get value from TT, JJ, AK and we're way behind kk, AA. By just calling are we not giving him a cheap draw with AK? Surely by c/r we give him the opportunity to make a mistake by calling with TT, JJ and AK. Or is the assumption that if we c/r we are folding out the hands we beat? I guess c/c allows TT and JJ to bet again, but is villain really going to with those hands? It's doubtful he will with AK.

he probably has some random suited bullshit in his range depending what hands he likes to 3bet (i.e suited bways or scs) so by checking we give him the opportunity to bluff these hands.

it seems unlikely we get 3 streets from much worse, people flat TT and JJ often preflop too when they arent sure about whether they can get it in vs a 4bet range so I think we can even discount those hands. we could make an arguement for discounting AA as well since sometimes people will 5bet it.

keeping villains range wide here is ideal, and we shouldnt really care much about a ace or king turning/rivering. thats 6 outs, and we could peel club turns on a card that will likely get bluffed enough for us to get away with it, so effectively less.

against a get it in range on the flop (included all combos of JJ but no TT) our equity is only 40%. I kept all JJ and AA in because I think they are both equally as likely - sometimes JJ will not 3bet preflop, and sometimes AA will flat our 4bet. we just need to approximate anyway, knowing how our hand stacks up vs different parts of villains range is the focus here:

Board: 8c 3c 8h
Hand 0: 59.284% 57.21% 02.08% 78159 2835.00 { JJ+, AcKc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac3c, Ac2c }
Hand 1: 40.716% 38.64% 02.08% 52791 2835.00 { QQ }

while we would be priced to get it in I think, or at least damn close if we take a c/r line and bloat the pot with dead money, we are narrowing villains range to him basically never getting it in w/ worse. there must be a more profitable line.

our equity against a range of some hands that would bluff (AK may bet but should pretty much always check imo) but if he never checks it:

Board: 8c 3c 8h
Hand 0: 23.601% 23.60% 00.00% 43458 0.00 { AKs, AJs-ATs, A3s-A2s, AKo }
Hand 1: 76.399% 76.40% 00.00% 140682 0.00 { QQ }

I chose some random suited Ax for this range, though perhaps some more middling gapped broadways and fewer Ax would be approriate (keep in mind that just about everyone flats 4bets ip with various suited shit at 100bb, so this deep its a given)

Board: 8c 3c 8h
Hand 0: 22.730% 22.73% 00.00% 45900 6.00 { AKs, A5s, KJs-K9s, QTs, AKo }
Hand 1: 77.270% 77.27% 00.00% 156048 6.00 { QQ }

you can see here that we have really awesome equity vs any potential bluff hands in villains range. you can add or subtract hands as you see fit depending on how you think his range is composed. if you think he only has AK:

Board: 8c 3c 8h
Hand 0: 26.386% 26.39% 00.00% 25077 0.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 73.614% 73.61% 00.00% 69963 0.00 { QQ }

There are 16 combos of AK which we beat. We can stack maybe 6 combos of JJ or worse which we are way ahead of, though that would be very optimistic. We want AK to put money in the pot. With 26% equity against us, we aren't really worried about giving a free card when we would win checking to showdown 73% of the time. And if villain has worse hands than AK that start betting... he is making an even bigger mistake.

This is a classic way ahead way behind scenario where we have little to no incentive to worry about betting to protect our hand, which makes check calling flop the optimal line.

Ok, so c/c.

But what are we doing against a turn bet. If we assume the flop is wa/wb then the turn, bar a q, is the same.

If we assume no 2 barrel bluffs, are we giving up to a turn bet? I think we have to give up to an A or k, and surely a J. So we call if we see a 2-10?

Actually we can't really call a T turn either. So we c/c 2-9, Q, and fold to T-A?

i agree this is way ahead/way behind,4b pre, c/c flop, and then c/c T i'd assume disguises the equity we have maybe almost to well. because what's the best line on river?