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 Originally Posted by The Bean Counter
So I've just started using Equilab to model how often a particular flop hits a particular villain's opening range, with the aim being to work out how I can respond to a c-bet - is this something worth continuing with?
You bet your ass it is. I think this kind of study is absolutely critical. It doesn't just teach you what to bluff at, it also teaches you how fast to play your value hands on different boards. I need to do a ton more of it.
Assuming yes, the only problem is that this is going to take a long time and I'm interested to know if you can think of any shortcuts or if anybody has seen this kind of information already completed online?
Meh, the trouble with finding stuff like this already done is that if you don't do the work yourself, it's tough to find the motivation to properly study it and learn it, wheras when you grind it out for yourself, it's kind of inevitable that you internalise some of the results.
One way to simplify is just to break down how hard they hit the flop into 2 categories rather than a ton, so rather than seeing how often they hit it for TP+, 2pr+, OESD, FD etc. just break it down into weak fits and strong fits. Make an arbitrary decision what constitutes a strong fit - I'd say a good way to do that is to say that a strong fit is a hand that's calling a turn barrel without improving. So you end up with 3 categories - misses, which they fold the flop with, weak fits which they peel then fold the turn unimproved, and strong fits which you probably don't stand too much chance of making fold.
Obviously these are relative - they are different categories on different flop textures, they are also different for different opponents - ie. TPTK is a strong fit on a dry, rainbow flop for everyone, but on QJ9m a reg will consider it a weak fit and fold to a turn barrel mostly wheras a fish will call you down all the way.
As an aside, http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25...xtures-988998/ is worth bearing in mind - ie. study the most common flop textures first, and think about how your own ranges want to hit the common flop textures hardest because it's not too important if they miss the really rare ones a lot. A good place to start with that is to try to make your 3bet bluff range hit a broader range of flop textures than most peoples 3bet calling ranges do.
Looking at the early results, there seems to be a lot of similarity between flop textures (e.g. non-ace high rainbow) and I guess I can therefore probably strip this down to a lot less flop textures than I originally imagined if I'm just looking for indicative numbers rather than exact figures?
Well yes, getting a broad overview at first without overcomplicating things by having tons and tons of very similar flop textures seems sensible. Look at the extremes first A72r vs KT9m or QJ7tt for example, then, an interesting exercise is to look at KQ2tt vs 762tt - instinctively, the first one looks worse to cbet bluff at, and it is against a reg, but against a fish they are basically the same flop, however, the fish will hit them both equally weakly wheras the reg will hit the first one hard more often and the second one _very_ weakly most often.
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