I need villain to be folding more than 40% to have a +EV bluff here, since I bet $3.05. I think we can pretty much narrow villain's range down to Kx here since he's never checking trips or better, it's just a matter of how much Kx.

JTs is literally the worst hand in my river range, so it's definitely a great bluffing candidate in this spot. Villain was getting 4.3:1 on his preflop call and was closing the action, so he's going to have a wider range than normal. I would say KJ and KT and definitely in this guys range, possibly hands like K9s as well. AK he'd be more likely to raise in my opinion but we can discount half the combos.

Villain range 1: AK (6) KJ (9) KT (9) - 24 combos. 24*0.41 = 10 combos, if villain is folding 10 combos I have a profitable bluff here. Even if villain is calling with KJ 50% of the time this is a nice wee spot.

Things are only going to get better as I widen his range. If it's profitable against a stronger range than he necessarily had, I think it's safe to assume this was a good bluff. Considering he could have TJ himself or some random spazz hand, I'm happy with the bluff.


@Griffey - I agree with you about conceding the hand sometimes when you brick, and perhaps I bluff too often, it's probably one of my many leaks, but I knew during play that JT was the absolute worst hand I could have in this spot and thought it was necessary to bluff out solely out of principle, since it's my best bluffing hand. I actually though I bet too much for it to be +EV that's why I posted the hand. Fwiw I think his calling range is going to fairly elastic in this spot and betting smaller would encourage a lot more crying calls from his weaker Kx. Anyway, it seems like a made a good play. Does my analysis seem skewed at all to you? Do you think this was a +EV play?