River call or fold?

CO is a total whale: 80/43/23.1 - 90 hands

I'v just been value betting the crap out of him, this is the first time he's raised one of my bets, although he was betting a very weak range when I checked to him OOP.

Call or fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

SB ($9.77)
BB ($12.45)
UTG ($5)
Hero (MP) ($12.32)
CO ($6.45)
Button ($13.59)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K, K
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.20, CO calls $0.20, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.47) 3, 8, J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.35, CO calls $0.35

Turn: ($1.17) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.75, CO calls $0.75

River: ($2.67) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.70, CO raises to $3.40, Hero??

Fold

Yeah I'm folding. You're way behind his minraise range, like I don't even think there is one combo in it that you beat.

I like a fold. The unbluffable don't bluff.

Maybe he has J8 and hasn't realized his hand is counterfeited. We need 28% equity here to call... Hmm Ok it seems even after including AJo and J8o we're too far behind to call here. [edit: math fail, see below] He has enough random 7x-straight draw type combos plus every spade draw imaginable that the river really screws up our equity.

My question to you is why you're betting so small on the flop and turn vs a station??

Errr arithmetic fail. We need 18% to call here guys... We just need a handful of top pair hands that spazz out to make this an easy call. Like, you have to give me a pretty strong argument for folding getting better than 5:1...

Originally Posted by eugmac

you have to give me a pretty strong argument for folding getting better than 5:1...

I'll give it a try.

Giving him an 80% flop range, which includes any 2 suited cards, all offsuit gappers, one-gappers etc.

I think it's reasonable to assume that he calls the flop with any PP, and draw including backdoor, and piece of the board, bare overs and slowplays any monster.

I'm not going to bother typing it out - it's like half his range, and he has every imaginable flushdraw.

On the turn, I assume he continues with any FD, any gutter or better, any pair 8s or better and slowplays any monster or overpair.

That gives him a river range of:

AA, KhKd, QQ, JdJc, JhJc, JhJd, 8d8c, 8h8c, 8h8d, 77, 3h3c, 3s3c, 3s3h, AsQs, AdJd, AsTs, As9s, Ad8d, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, AsJh, AsJc, AsJd, As8h, As8c, As8d, KdJd, Kd8d, KhJc, KhJd, KdJh, KdJc, Kh8c, Kh8d, Kd8h, Kd8c, QdJd, QdTd, QsTs, Qd9d, Qs9s, Qd8d, Qs7s, Qs6s, Qs5s, Qs4s, Qs3s, Qs2s, QsJh, QsJc, QsJd, QhTs, QcTs, QdTs, QsTh, QsTc, QsTd, Qh9s, Qc9s, Qd9s, Qs9h, Qs9c, Qs9d, Qs8h, Qs8c, Qs8d, JdTd, Jd9d, Jd8d, Jd7d, Jd6d, Jd5d, Jd4d, Jh3h, Jc3c, Jd2d, JhTs, JcTs, JdTs, Jh9s, Jc9s, Jd9s, Jh8c, Jh8d, Jc8h, Jc8d, Jd8h, Jd8c, Jh7s, Jc7s, Jd7s, Td9d, Ts9s, Td8d, Td7d, Ts7s, Ts6s, Ts5s, Ts4s, Ts3s, Ts2s, Th9s, Tc9s, Td9s, Ts9h, Ts9c, Ts9d, Ts8h, Ts8c, Ts8d, Th7s, Tc7s, Td7s, Ts7h, Ts7c, Ts7d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 9s7s, 9s6s, 9s5s, 9s4s, 9s3s, 9s2s, 9s8h, 9s8c, 9s8d, 9h7s, 9c7s, 9d7s, 9s7h, 9s7c, 9s7d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 8d5d, 8d4d, 8h3h, 8c3c, 8d2d, 8h7s, 8c7s, 8d7s, 8h6s, 8c6s, 8d6s, 8h5s, 8c5s, 8d5s, 7s6s, 7s5s, 7s4s, 7s3s, 7s2s, 6s5s, 6s4s, 6s3s, 6s2s, 5s4s, 5s3s, 5s2s, 4s3s, 4s2s, 3s2s


Yeah, fish have wide ranges...

However, against his entire range we have only 56.5% equity!!! Which goes to show how much this texture (and runout) smashes a fishes range.

Let's say he raises the river with overpairs, J8o, AJ, boats, quads, trips, flushes and straights

That's 48% of his river range, and we have 21% equity against it.

Needing 18% that's barely a call, and I think it's optimistic to think he always raises J8o, AJ and overpairs. Fish are usually scared of flushes/trips.

I think when we take that into account, he never has worse than a straight and mostly he has a flush or better.

If he doesn't raise AJ (but does raise J8o, overpairs) we have 17%. If he raises only J8o but not AJ or overpairs we have 10%.

We're crushed, and having done the combos I actually almost want to c/f river, but that would be bad.

Yeah I mean I think the plan to b/f is definitely best - the majority of the hands we're getting value out of like top pair or TT might check behind a lot of the time if we plan to c/c. I personally don't know if I have the discipline on the spot to click fold when getting better than 5:1 is all.

edit: ok i had to delete a bunch of spew. apologies.

Whales see a suited hand and call. I'd imagine a whale like this is calling with every single suited hand possible, and obviously continuing with every FD on the flop and turn.

A whale of all players is also much more likely to show up with 7x somehow here. Like gutters with 7x, pairs+7x, and even BD FD's with 7x (7dd or something stupid).

Originally Posted by griffey24

Whales see a suited hand and call. I'd imagine a whale like this is calling with every single suited hand possible, and obviously continuing with every FD on the flop and turn.

A whale of all players is also much more likely to show up with 7x somehow here. Like gutters with 7x, pairs+7x, and even BD FD's with 7x (7dd or something stupid).

Do you want to c/f river? Having done the combos, it seems possible that might be best, but instinctively I feel like we give up too much value against this kind of player, so in-game I probably always b/f.

Certainly b/f. V betting the fuck outta fish is the money maker. Sometimes you have to do the folding part

Definitely b/f. He's playing 80% so he has tons of offsuit hands which means tons of Jx / pairs and also tons of pockets.