River flat missing value?

What do you think he flats a 3bet with that has you beat here?

I am raising this nearly all the time. Seems likely he has an overpair, TT-QQ.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

What do you think he flats a 3bet with that has you beat here?
I am raising this nearly all the time. Seems likely he has an overpair, TT-QQ.

He does just barely get odds to setmine preflop, although that would be unwise with MP still to act. I'm just not expecting a 17/9 to lead the river with an overpair on a flushing, paired board. I also don't know that he flats the flop with an overpair - it's pretty drawy, I think most nits just try to get the money in before they get drawn out on if he holds an overpair here, although maybe he doesn't do that with something weakish like TT.

Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

He does just barely get odds to setmine preflop, although that would be unwise with MP still to act. I'm just not expecting a 17/9 to lead the river with an overpair on a flushing, paired board. I also don't know that he flats the flop with an overpair - it's pretty drawy, I think most nits just try to get the money in before they get drawn out on if he holds an overpair here, although maybe he doesn't do that with something weakish like TT.

I believe he needs 17x to make a pre-flop call profitable when he is set mining (MMM to confirm?)

Give me some hands that he flats a 3bet with that has you beat here

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

I believe he needs 17x to make a pre-flop call profitable when he is set mining (MMM to confirm?)

Give me some hands that he flats a 3bet with that has you beat here

The odds of making a set are about 8.5:1, so normally you want at least twice that, because people just won't stack off often enough to mean you actually have the implied odds to mine getting only 10:1-ish.

I'm not so worried about what he has that has me beat when he bets (I'm not thinking about folding) - I'm more concerned that nothing that I beat calls a raise. I mean, he did actually have me beat with something unlikely, so he can have it here, but yeah, generally, I think you make a valid point of asking "what can a nit flat a 3bet with that beats the nut flush here".

I think a more relevant question though is, can a nit who flatted a 3bet pre, called the flop then led out on the river call a raise with anything worse than my hand?