River flat missing value?

Villain is 17/9 with 3% 3bet over 90 hands, folded 80% of SB to BTN steals (10 opportunities) so far.

He's nitty - maybe he can lead the non-nut flush here expecting me to call a smallish bet, but I actually think he might just c/c it, especially on a paired board, so I think I'm beat quite a lot.

Do you agree that just flatting the river is best and we're not missing value here?

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (BTN): $11.08 (110.8 bb)
SB: $22.58 (225.8 bb)
BB: $25.28 (252.8 bb)
UTG: $10 (100 bb)
MP: $19.89 (198.9 bb)
CO: $11.12 (111.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with A T
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.30, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.90, SB calls $0.85, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.20) 9 3 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.10, SB calls $1.10

Turn: ($4.40) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($4.40) 7 (2 players)
SB bets $2.52, Hero calls $2.52

What do you think he flats a 3bet with that has you beat here?

I am raising this nearly all the time. Seems likely he has an overpair, TT-QQ.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

What do you think he flats a 3bet with that has you beat here?
I am raising this nearly all the time. Seems likely he has an overpair, TT-QQ.

He does just barely get odds to setmine preflop, although that would be unwise with MP still to act. I'm just not expecting a 17/9 to lead the river with an overpair on a flushing, paired board. I also don't know that he flats the flop with an overpair - it's pretty drawy, I think most nits just try to get the money in before they get drawn out on if he holds an overpair here, although maybe he doesn't do that with something weakish like TT.

Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

He does just barely get odds to setmine preflop, although that would be unwise with MP still to act. I'm just not expecting a 17/9 to lead the river with an overpair on a flushing, paired board. I also don't know that he flats the flop with an overpair - it's pretty drawy, I think most nits just try to get the money in before they get drawn out on if he holds an overpair here, although maybe he doesn't do that with something weakish like TT.

I believe he needs 17x to make a pre-flop call profitable when he is set mining (MMM to confirm?)

Give me some hands that he flats a 3bet with that has you beat here

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

I believe he needs 17x to make a pre-flop call profitable when he is set mining (MMM to confirm?)

Give me some hands that he flats a 3bet with that has you beat here

The odds of making a set are about 8.5:1, so normally you want at least twice that, because people just won't stack off often enough to mean you actually have the implied odds to mine getting only 10:1-ish.

I'm not so worried about what he has that has me beat when he bets (I'm not thinking about folding) - I'm more concerned that nothing that I beat calls a raise. I mean, he did actually have me beat with something unlikely, so he can have it here, but yeah, generally, I think you make a valid point of asking "what can a nit flat a 3bet with that beats the nut flush here".

I think a more relevant question though is, can a nit who flatted a 3bet pre, called the flop then led out on the river call a raise with anything worse than my hand?

Whatttt.. flatting this river in a 3b pot??

I would just triple barrel in the first place.

Definitely easy river raise. You get to the river with so much perceived air, AK/AQ etc, you have to raise this.

With nfd and overs I like a second barrel. That probably takes it down a lot. I'd probably min-raise otr, not sure that's best though.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Definitely easy river raise. You get to the river with so much perceived air, AK/AQ etc, you have to raise this.

Well, he probably checks the turn expecting me to bet again, so when I don't his river lead (and sizing) look value-ish.

Now obviously he can't particularly expect me to be as strong as I am - but if I raise the river, unless he's terrible, I'm not sure what worse I'm getting called by?

So I take it you're just rampant bluffing in this spot cause he just can't call you?

He's conceivably betting any pair here. If you don't wanna jam just raise smaller. Even discussing calling here is tilting me

Originally Posted by griffey24

Even discussing calling here is tilting me

I don't understand the 3bet pre. This guy is a nit and his range already beats us, I don't get why we want to bloat a pot with AT against a nit.

I'm gonna bet turn, probably b/f but a minraise might suck me in.

River, I guess it's a raise. I don't expect he'll fold out any flushes, even 9x is going to struggle, so there's value for sure. I question if he jams with worse, I'd expect Kxhh to call a raise now, so I suspect a r/f line is best on river, but I lack this discpline and likely call off a jam pretty much all day long.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I don't understand the 3bet pre. This guy is a nit and his range already beats us, I don't get why we want to bloat a pot with AT against a nit.

The nit cold calls it, I 3bet someone else (can't remember his stats, but would have been folding a lot to 3bets)

I'm gonna bet turn, probably b/f but a minraise might suck me in.

I felt like his flop calling range had a lot of 9x and overpairs, and that if I bet I stand a pretty good chance of getting jammed on, so I checked it behind.

River, I guess it's a raise. I don't expect he'll fold out any flushes, even 9x is going to struggle, so there's value for sure. I question if he jams with worse, I'd expect Kxhh to call a raise now, so I suspect a r/f line is best on river, but I lack this discpline and likely call off a jam pretty much all day long.

Yeah, unless we're a lot deeper I don't think I can raise/fold. I either raise/call or just don't.

I'm going to do the combos on this hand properly, everyone thinks I'm a massive nit flatting the river, but I just didn't see what he could call a raise with - maybe KhXh but that seemed like about it. Everyone else seems to think he won't fold a flush and might even feel commited with 9x or an overpair, I guess, although he's a nit, I wasn't putting enough weight on the fact that it's a 3bet pot.

I'll go and do the combos now.

OK, so these ranges I have specifically gone out of my way to try to make them such that they might contradict my idea that he can't call with worse.

OK so preflop I'm giving him (to cold call a 3bet OOP):

88-QQ, AQo+, KQo, A9s+, KJs+, QJs, T9s, JTs

I'll say he might slowplay 99 just to allow some possibility of hands that do beat me getting there, and that he can flat with:

88-QQ, KQhh, KJhh, QJhh, T9s, A9s

Turn checks through, and he leads the river with:

1 combo of 99 which beats me and:

TT-QQ, KQhh, KJhh, QJhh, T9s, A9s

All of which I beat.

If I raise, I can get called by his flushes, maybe his A9 and occasionally maybe even QQ.

But - I can't help but feel I've probably tried here specifically to contradict my own feeling that I couldn't raise and get called by worse. I think I have a fair bit to learn from this hand.

I'd appreciate anyone elses range estimates for him.

I don't want to spoiler what he showed up with yet, because I'm interested to know what ranges other people give him first - happy to spoiler it once anyone who's going to reply has done so though.

FWIW, I don't think a 17/9 is THAT nitty.

I agree with most of your range, although I probably take T9s out. You get calls from A9, his flushes and his overpairs some of the time as well.

The nit cold calls it, I 3bet someone else (can't remember his stats, but would have been folding a lot to 3bets)

Fair enough, my mistake.

FWIW, I don't think a 17/9 is THAT nitty.

It is if he's pfr (which he's not here so your point is valid).

I agree with most of your range, although I probably take T9s out. You get calls from A9, his flushes and his overpairs some of the time as well.

I think T9s is a hand a lot of people like to see a flop with in 3bet pots. It's the kind of hand that cracks aces. I've heard that said in private games a lot.