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River spot with slowplayed aces

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  1. #1

    Default River spot with slowplayed aces

    CO is pretty much unknown, 18/18 over 20 hands so far.

    BB is 27/25 with 10% 3bet over 250 hands and has squeezed 30%, so I flat preflop hoping that he'll squeeze.

    Once that plan backfires and the flop gets 3bet, I'm pretty much c/f this turn then he checks it back. Just folding the flop might be better, but he makes it so small.

    What's your play on the river? I don't feel like he's value betting anything he value raised the flop with after this turn, but also not much he value raised is worse than my hand.

    Are you throwing a little blocker bet out there to get to showdown, c/c or something else?

    Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    BTN: $4.97 (49.7 bb)
    Hero (SB): $13.01 (130.1 bb)
    BB: $14.03 (140.3 bb)
    UTG: $13.52 (135.2 bb)
    MP: $11.80 (118 bb)
    CO: $12.91 (129.1 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with A A
    2 folds, CO raises to $0.30, BTN folds, Hero calls $0.25, BB folds

    Flop: ($0.70) K J 5 (2 players)
    Hero checks, CO bets $0.40, Hero raises to $1.10, CO raises to $1.80, Hero calls $0.70

    Turn: ($4.30) 9 (2 players)
    Hero checks, CO checks

    River: ($4.30) 7 (2 players)
  2. #2
    Just to state the obvious.... even if the 30% squeeze is accurate, 30% squeeze means you're ending up in this situation 70% of the time.

    Also probably his most likely squeeze spots are CO open BTN call, or BTN open SB call, somewhat less than CO open SB call. So maybe that makes his sq in that spot 20-25%, so 75-80% of the time you end up in this situation. Furthermore, given stacks he probably squeezes even less often, so maybe 15%.

    yada yada, when you're 130bb deep and have a good chance of ending up OOP, don't get fancy.

    After flatting pre I would c/c down and not c/r flop.

    As played, given all his bluffs would prob bet this particular turn card I don't think he has air so I'm checking river and re-evaluating.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks

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