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Set vs possible nit

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  1. #1

    Default Set vs possible nit

    iPoker - €0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    BTN: €2.02 (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
    SB: €1.01 (VPIP: 6.67, PFR: 6.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
    Hero (BB): €2.36
    CO: €2.18 (VPIP: 19.15, PFR: 12.77, 3Bet Preflop: 6.25, Hands: 48)

    SB posts SB €0.01, Hero posts BB €0.02

    Pre Flop: (pot: €0.03) Hero has 7 7

    fold, fold, SB raises to €0.06, Hero calls €0.04

    Flop: (€0.12, 2 players) 7 8 4
    SB bets €0.06, Hero calls €0.06

    Turn: (€0.24, 2 players) J
    SB bets €0.06, Hero raises to €0.21, fold

    SB 7/7 low sample size. Possible range. 88+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+, KQo

    I think my turn raise is ok here (sizing?) as I think SB c/f the River if a brick comes.

    I get re-raised by JJ, so fold, called by AA, KK, QQ, 88 and folds the rest including 99 and TT

    What do I do if an A comes on the river and face a check? My equity is still 66%. Would I bet and try to get value from KK or QQ. I'll fold to a reraise of course or maybe check behind???
  2. #2
    Why on earth are you talking about folding to a river A facing a raise? Only 9 or T rivers are bad enough to even consider folding against.

    Villain is a fish. He's half stacked and he b/f's turn at 3bb, a bet which gets folds somewhere in the region of never. If he raises a river A, fistpump call that shit because he has AK a LOT more often than AA when he makes this turn bet.

    I'd probably call this turn bet, rather than raise, because I think he's drawing dead and has no showdown value. Better off letting him see a river and maybe fire another street.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  3. #3
    17 hands is not nearly a big enough sample to decide that villain is a nit. I can fold two or three orbits without playing a hand, and I'm far from nitty.

    Don't be afraid of him having AA if river is A. He can have AK, AQ, hell he can have 23s for all we know. You have a set. If the money is going in, then be happy.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  4. #4
    i'm probably raising flop, since a big part of his range is gonna be overpairs
  5. #5
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Raise flop. Even against 65 (made straight), you have good equity to ship it.

    In general, don't fold sets at the micros. You have nowhere near the tens of thousands of hands against any single opponent that you'd need to narrow their range down to shit that beats you.

    I mean, in the extreme example of there being a straight on the board OTR and you are facing big bet, then probably fold. Your pocket cards are not playing, and therefore you have trash.

    My point is that there are board run-outs that can turn your set into a poor holding, but in general, don't have any fear OTF, and only fear straights and flushes on later streets.

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