Super wierd line, anyone calling the river?

Villain is 20/12 over 110 hands.

First off, yeah, the 3bet pre is not good.

As played though, I know we're getting excellent odds and all, but does anyone feel like the river is ever a bluff? Only a bare ace or maybe a very oddly played QQ make sense as a bluff, wheras he can have a lot of slowplayed 2pr or a set.

River is probably too small also, but I felt he could have quite a lot of worse pair + draw that he could fold to a bigger bet.

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $12.50 (50 bb)
Hero (SB): $95.83 (383.3 bb)
BB: $32.52 (130.1 bb)
UTG: $100.52 (402.1 bb)
MP: $25 (100 bb)
CO: $46.03 (184.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q K
2 folds, CO raises to $0.75, BTN folds, Hero raises to $2.50, BB folds, CO calls $1.75

Flop: ($5.25) K T J (2 players)
Hero bets $3.75, CO calls $3.75

Turn: ($12.75) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($12.75) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $6, CO raises to $12

meh. 50/50 on call vs. fold.

Both of your lines look bluffy, and I don't expect Villain to necessarily have the goods here. Play OTT suggests Villain is unlikely to have had AA+ at that point.

River is basically a brick unless Villain floated with 7x no pair, which is basically A7s.

Hero's hand looks similarly bluffy, like a C-bet OTF, saw weakness OTT and stabbed OTR.

I think this is pretty much a 7 always. You're getting an astounding 5:1 to call but I have never caught anybody bluffing this way. I say don't pay him off and fold.

I'd be surprised if you've ever been min-raised at the micros and been good with tpgk. Looks like AQ almost exclusively to me.

Originally Posted by abelardx

I think this is pretty much a 7 always. You're getting an astounding 5:1 to call but I have never caught anybody bluffing this way. I say don't pay him off and fold.

Meh, that's the thing - I can't see what 7x he calls the flop with, he doesn't seem loose enough to call with a gutter with my sizing, and even the exceedingly unlikely 77 probably folds the flop.

What better than QK checks behind the turn? Maybe AK on this flop, but then he doesn't raise the river surely.

That said, wierd lines are normally for value.

Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

Meh, that's the thing - I can't see what 7x he calls the flop with, he doesn't seem loose enough to call with a gutter with my sizing, and even the exceedingly unlikely 77 probably folds the flop.

What better than QK checks behind the turn? Maybe AK on this flop, but then he doesn't raise the river surely.

That said, wierd lines are normally for value.

Well different stakes, different site. (Seriously jealous of getting to play on Stars/Tilt.) But on Bovada 5nl there are plenty of people who are never folding a pair to one bet on the flop.

edit: In my games he could have any of A7 - T7, possibly 77, AQ like BC said, or even be slowplaying a set. He'd have to be a second-level thinker here to look at your line, figure your hand for weak, and purposely make a scary river raise. I would be shocked by that in my games, but maybe it happens in yours.

IDK his stack size and bet sizes don't say fish. What do you think? At 25nl on Stars is this ever a bluff?

I think it's exceedingly rare that it could be a bluff. I don't feel bad that I folded, I was just interested if everyone agreed, especially given that his sizing makes it such that he only has to be bluffing very very rarely.

I think the only bluff that makes any sense to me is a bare ace. I don't think we need to assume he can think my line looks too weak to call a raise, I think it can be a spazz bluff from someone quite fishy sometimes where they haven't even put me on a range at all.

A slowplayed 2 pair makes most sense to me. A7s is certainly also possible but unlikely. 89s seems a good candidate too.

One more thing - I wanted to c/r turn but he never gave me the chance, does anyone feel it's a mistake to check and it's better to just bet again? Also, is a c/r here too likely to get called because of all the pair+draw he can have?

Don't like pre, calling is fine

On the flop, what are your reasons for betting? I know this sounds like an obvious question, but maybe we can give you more insight if we can hear your thoughts.

On the Turn, why were you planning to check raise?

Give a distinct range for what you think he could have after he calls the flop, and then a distinct description
of what part of that range bets when you check, and what you are trying to accomplish with a check raise.

After you've done that, we should talk about your bet size on the river as played.

i think with min raise is value so may be i fold here but i accept the call...really, the line is very strange

I would bet the turn. Most hands that beat us will raise this flop for sure (AQ,sets and some two pairs). Betting the turn gets us value from AJ/QJ/QQ/AT - all hands with pairs and draws that might not be able to fold.

As played, meh looks lame and I'm usually stationing but that's prob not great.

Thanks for the reply Caddie, excellent questions.

Originally Posted by caddie444

On the flop, what are your reasons for betting? I know this sounds like an obvious question, but maybe we can give you more insight if we can hear your thoughts.

I'm betting for value. He can call with a lot of pair+draw or just draws.

On the Turn, why were you planning to check raise?

Well I thought I was bluffing, but I obviously wasn't - see my range analysis below.

Give a distinct range for what you think he could have after he calls the flop, and then a distinct description
of what part of that range bets when you check, and what you are trying to accomplish with a check raise.

When he calls the flop: QQ, JJ, TT, 99, AJ, ATs, A9s, AQ, KJ, KQ, KTs, QTs, JTs

Bets (for value) when I check: KJ, KTs, AQ
Bets (semi)bluffing when I check: 99, QJ, QTs, AJ, ATs, A9s
Checks back for showdown value: QQ, JTs, KQ

Of the hands he bets, 65%+ are (semi)bluffs.

So yeah, I figured I would be bluffing if I C/R the turn, but if he bets the turn when I check it to him, he's super polarised and either has fat value hands that he's almost never folding, or stuff I beat anyway. So, if I was gonna c/r turn, it's better to do it with total air.

As Griffey said, I should have just bet the turn for value. It looks (to me, on first inspection) like the kind of spot where we can't bet the turn for value with TPGK, so it's obviously a spot I need to learn more about.

Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

I'd be surprised if you've ever been min-raised at the micros and been good with tpgk. Looks like AQ almost exclusively to me.

Pretty much my thoughts. There's pretty much no 7x in his range, sets raise this flop, but I can see the flopped nuts slowplaying against what villain will hope is KK+ AK. I don't like hero's 3bet pre, I don't like turn check either but I guess that's because hero is moneyscared after bloating a pot with something he should call pre with. As played I can't see me doing anything other than folding river unless this villain has given me reason to think that he thinks he can push me off top pair.

Do you think villain calls your 1/2 pot river bet with Q-10, QQ, AJ, A-10 or QJ?

Originally Posted by caddie444

Do you think villain calls your 1/2 pot river bet with Q-10, QQ, AJ, A-10 or QJ?

No. The river bet is definitely bad. Looking at what he probably checks back for showdown, and what he bets if I check, I think I should c/f river.

Probably betting the turn like griffey said is better too, because then I think he's less likely to stab at the river with the hands I beat and I get more value from his draws. I can then more comfortably c/f river.