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Top 2 and the flush gets there - am I a massive station?

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  1. #1

    Default Top 2 and the flush gets there - am I a massive station?

    SB is a TAG on the slightly nitty side, 17/14. 6.3% 3bet over 70 hands. Haven't seen him play a flushdraw yet.

    I ended up stationing the river, but on reflection I really don't like it - can someone who looks fairly nitty so far really have too many 1-heart hands here? If he has AxJh he's freerolling on the turn, KhJx seems possible but I want to discount him flatting it pre quite a lot with those stats, JhKx again I want to discount pre, and I'm not sure he'd even raise the turn with it if he can have it at all. J9dd/cc probably raise the flop, hate this turn, and even if he could have them they get there on the river. A9cc/dd probably do raise the turn, but again, they get there on the river.

    QhTx/QxTh seems even more unlikely preflop, as do KhTx/KxTh.

    KhQx is about all I think he can have that I beat, but we don't know if he bombs the river with it very often.

    OTOH, I also can't see what flushes he can have that _don't_ raise the flop. Surely 78hh, KQhh, KJhh, KThh, QThh, JThh raise the flop more often than not - but he is an unknown, so he may play these hands passively.

    Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    BTN: $12.82 (128.2 bb)
    SB: $17.57 (175.7 bb)
    BB: $25.01 (250.1 bb)
    UTG: $18.08 (180.8 bb)
    Hero (MP): $11.08 (110.8 bb)
    CO: $15.85 (158.5 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is MP with A J
    UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

    Flop: ($0.90) 6 J 9 (3 players)
    SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.50, SB calls $0.50, BB folds

    Turn: ($1.90) A (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB raises to $2.50, Hero calls $1.50

    River: ($6.90) 9 (2 players)
    SB bets $4.95
    Last edited by BorisTheSpider; 11-13-2013 at 11:17 PM.
  2. #2
    It looks like villain's line says he has a flush. Not all villain's, especially nits (although I don't think 17/14 is that nitty), will play FD's aggressively. I don't like calling his c/r on turn given villain's line but he makes it so damn cheap I just don't think we can fold.

    As played, I'm folding river.
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  3. #3
    There's no reason why Jxhh has to be raising the flop.It already has top pair and it's not likely getting better to fold. Villain can definitely have all combos of Jxhh. Also not everyone is c/r combo draws either, esp not after you describe him as a nit.

    I mean.. in other posts you're trying to fold sets on flops when you're beat by only like 3 combos, but now you wanna call this down? Also SB has a much stronger range overall than BB would cold calling and calling the flop.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  4. #4
    Turn fold surely? What's the plan when we call turn and face a river bet?

    I'm not saying I make this fold on the turn, but I think I should.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  5. #5
    Looks to me more like the villain is representing the Ace on the turn rather than a made flush or perhaps floating a big king or queen flushdraw.
    So I would put the river bet down as a continuation. I would have to think top 2 is still good most of the time.

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