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($27) Value bet this river?

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  1. #1

    Default ($27) Value bet this river?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

    UTG (t705)
    MP1 (t2380)
    Hero (t1430)
    CO (t1475)
    Button (t3025)
    SB (t1795)
    BB (t2690)

    Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q, A.
    2 folds, Hero raises to t150, 2 folds, SB calls t125, 1 fold.

    Flop: (t350) 4, T, J (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero checks.

    Turn: (t350) A (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets t225, SB calls t225.

    River: (t800) 7 (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero ???

    ---

    The Villian hasn't been involved in too many hands so far.

    Do you value bet this river?
  2. #2
    ya i make it 400 to go
  3. #3
    Tough call. At lower levels I think I bet this.

    This is a board where a lot of draws might call the turn though, so giving opp a chance to make a bluff might be a good idea. It probably costs you less if he has you buried -- two pair could easily price you in on a reraise. I.E., if you bet $400 on the river, opp. might reraise another $400. Whereas if you check, perhaps it costs you just $400 to call their value bet.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  4. #4
    I can go both ways. Lower levels, it's easy to value bet the river. The real question you have to ask yourself is, will you call a shove/raise?
  5. #5
    ok, go through the hands that beat AcQh-

    JJ,1010, 44, J10, 104, AJ, A10, A4, A7, J7, 10 7, 77, 47, J4, KQ

    Now your read i would assume by saying "hasn't been involved in many hands so far" would assume solid player (any arguments?)

    Solid player (average hands playability) - JJ, 1010, 44?, AJs(o?) A10s 77, KQs(o?)

    if he has JJ 1010 44 77 or KQ your drawing dead, any bet kills u
    - now a solid player would assumably play the hands above - i would assume with the check's all the way down if he raises a value bet on the river u fold. Make a value bet, 1/3-1/2 the pot size.
  6. #6
    Staresy's Avatar
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    does someone with a set check a JT and two flop here?

    I think I would bet. The whole, check, check-call, check business is a bit odd but for every time this is a (poorly - IMO) slow-played set, how often do you see a busted club draw or some crappy middle pair that villian is intent on showing down, even with multiple overs?
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