[Hand of the Week by donkbee] 4 - 88 in 6 Max MTT (Part 2 Released!)

Here is the next segment in our Hand of the Week series.

Link to the video below:
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Part I - Hand of the Week 4A (6 Max, 88 in HJ)

Description: In the next hand of the week series, Courtney looks at a 6 Max hand from 2 players. First, we start with 88 in HJ. Once getting to the river, Courtney asks the question - How much should Player 1 raise on the river?
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Part II - Hand of the Week 4B (6 Max, AQ in SB)

Description: In part 2, now Courtney looks at the hand from the other perspective - AQ from the SB. What do you think of the line Player 2 took?
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Please post any questions, comments or feedback in this thread.

Thanks!

This kind of makes me curious about what 3bet/4bet situations are considered normal nowadays. If someone 3bets light and gets 4bet to less than 2x, are they folding? What's the smallest 4bet you can make here (i forgot)?

With 88 (and with most hands considering how shallow the stacks are) I don't see the reason for 4betting less than all-in. I don't want to induce anyone to 5bet bluff shove overs on me when I have 8s.

Not a smart flat of the 3bet. You'll only have 2x pot behind and its going to tough to know what to do on almost every flop. On the river I think villain is either going to call a raise or not...it doesn't matter so much if you make it 18k vs 35k. Shove

I doubt villain will call with anything worse if we shove. The only way to extract anything is to raise really small. Perhaps even min-raise.

I would also like know the reasoning behind 4bet-call.

Hey guys, here's a converted HH. I'll come back to the thread soon for some discussion.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 55 Tournament, 800/1600 Blinds 200 Ante (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t67235)
BB (t42640)
UTG (t39737)
Hero (MP) (t48942)
CO (t18106)
Button (t22662)

Hero's M: 13.60

Preflop: Hero is MP with 8, 8
1 fold, Hero bets t3344, 2 folds, SB raises to t8000, 1 fold, Hero calls t4656

Flop: (t18800) 7, A, 9 (2 players)
SB bets t4800, Hero calls t4800

Turn: (t28400) 10 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: (t28400) J (2 players)
SB bets t8000, Hero ?

I really dunno, readless I don't see how we can ever get worst to call almost any raise unless people are really paranoid we are turning like KK or QQ into a bluff here which 3bs pre some % of the time.

That said people are stations so like 14k more should be able to get looked up by rivered 2pair/sets even though like since the flush draw completed and KQ got there(2hands we probably call flop to ck turn with since we got such a good price on the flop) I don't think we should be getting looked up...that said villain can't have much to look us up with either so he has to take some hands to call with. It's just a really blah spot and I think both opponents are flipping coins here and it isn't going to be a huge mistake no matter what we do here.

Okay completely worthless post but I feel like it's just really blah to be raising because we SHOULDN'T get looked up by worst but not raising is silly because people are so stationy.(right?)

tl;dr raise river to like 22k kind of happily

The reason I would rather 4bet/call than jam is because people jam wider than they call.

I don't really know what sizing is best on this river. His range is super weak relative to the board at this point, so we should maybe just raise tiny and hopefully entice him to call just a bit more. Or go all-in. I think I like going all-in more than small raising, actually.

readless I'd bet turn & shove blank rivers (if not fold flop), as played call river. TT and JJ are really the only hands he can have to call a river raise after such a small lead OTF then turn check. I do agree jamming is better than a small raise.

Originally Posted by donkbee

The reason I would rather 4bet/call than jam is because people jam wider than they call.

But what are the ranges? Is it unreasonable to think that he jams with something like {99+, ATs+, AQo+, KJs+, QJs} and calls with something like {JJ+, AQ+}? Our equities against these ranges are basically identical. That would mean jamming is clearly better as it maximises our fold equity.

Also, the difference in ranges you bring out shouldn't actually be very big, because villain should understand that we will almost always call, because we'd already have that much in.

Part II Released!

Hm, technical difficulties with part 2. Gimme a min.

edit - good to go

Part 2 is always a 3barrel(3b is dependent obv) for me, so like 5600, 12k, shove or something along those lines as a default. On this runout I would probably end up c/fing river, as played I don't know what the fuck to do because I think checking this turn is an absolute disaster and I would never be in this situation. I guess I'd c/c a small bet(worst should bet) because it looks like we have some Txish type hand and c/f to anything anything larger.

Part 1:
What stage of the event? In SNG's and MTT's, survival is the name of the game. Is this the final table? If not, I think the long-term gain of minimizing our chance to bust out is best.

In a vacuum (assume: villain 3-bets from LB 15%):
Range pre-flop: 55+,A9s+,KTs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,ATo+,KJo+,QJo,JTo
*note: nothing ever happens to narrow this range. When Villain checks the turn, it could be with the intent to c/r. The only hands that might be ruled out are the AT hands.

I think a min-raise on the river just screams pay-me, pay-me, so it might not work if Villain has b/f discipline (but Hero wins the pot w/o showdown, ++). Also, what does Hero do if Villain shoves back? Can Hero reasonably think Villain is not at the top of his/her range? Can Hero possibly fold with 3.5:1 pot odds? Would Hero want to risk tournament life on this all-in call? Pokerstove has Hero as 85% favorite against Villain's range. Hero must call a shove here.

Another problem is that a min-raise of 16k leaves Hero 20k behind. Which means Hero should've shoved in the first place, bluff or made. The min-raise just doesn't feel like a bluff, and we want our villain to think we're bluffing at the flush.

So, let's say Hero shoves. If Villain is folding to a min-raise, then Villain is likely folding to a shove. If Villain is not folding to a min-raise, Villain will either shove or make a crying call. The only way to extract value here is with a min-raise, in my estimation.

The problem I have is that I want to stay alive in this tourney no matter what, so a call is my favorite. But, I want to bet with 85% equity, or I'll bust out later rather than sooner. But, but, even if we call behind and win, we're still chip-leader at this table which will have at least as much equity as extracting full value out of this one hand.

I just talked myself into calling. Is this a huge leak?

Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey

In SNG's and MTT's, survival is the name of the game. Is this the final table? If not, I think the long-term gain of minimizing our chance to bust out is best.

As for MTT's I think you have it upside down. In MTT's we should generally play for first place and not be afraid to bust out. One exception to this might be when we have reached the final table for in that case every time an opponent goes out we get higher on the prize ladder.

Range pre-flop: 55+,A9s+,KTs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,ATo+,KJo+,QJo,JTo
*note: nothing ever happens to narrow this range. When Villain checks the turn, it could be with the intent to c/r. The only hands that might be ruled out are the AT hands.

[...] what does Hero do if Villain shoves back? [...] Pokerstove has Hero as 85% favorite against Villain's range.

This just can't be right. While I agree that villain's weird line makes it hard to narrow his range, he's definitely not bet-shoving river with the same range he 3-bet pre.

Originally Posted by Fielmann

This just can't be right. While I agree that villain's weird line makes it hard to narrow his range, he's definitely not bet-shoving river with the same range he 3-bet pre.

Oh, I see. I assumed Hero still has 85% equity if Hero min-raises the river and faces a shove. My mistake.
What range would you put Villain on bet/shoving the river?

Clarify: I would min-raise in a ring game, or at a final table. Clearly the equity in this spot dictates getting our chips in. In early to mid MTT, I would call behind.
The difference is that I can re-buy at a ring game. The variance is to my favor in the long run, as it does not affect any hand but this one. In the MTT, I can not re-buy. If I get busted even once, I'm done for the entire event. The variance on this hand can affect ALL future hands (I might not be there to play them.) *Note: this is read variance, not card variance.

min-raise leads to all-in:
Hero wins - Big advantage, chip leader, max equity, perfect play
Hero loses - Done for, kaput, nixed out, worst play
min-raise leads to fold:
Hero wins - same result as calling and winning, slight + for no showdown
calling:
Hero wins - Good advantage, chip leader, good equity, good play
Hero loses - Big hit, short stack, lost the min, good play

It seems to me that min-raise could be the best or worst play, but calling is always a good play.