50 cubed, rivered full house facing massive overbet

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $50+$5 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t2620)
UTG (t3710)
UTG+1 (t5920)
MP1 (t2980)
MP2 (t6460)
CO (t2990)
Hero (Button) (t6620)
SB (t5240)

Hero's M: 220.67

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6, 6
UTG bets t80, 4 folds, Hero calls t80, 2 folds

Flop: (t190) A, 4, 4 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t190) J (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: (t190) 6 (2 players)
UTG bets t3630 (All-In), Hero...

When someone makes a play as unexpected as this, I usually go look at their OPR. This guy is a solid winner at small-stakes MTTs, doesn't bust out very often in the first hour, and seems kind of nitty. What do you put him on?

sick, could be AA/JJ/44 and it's hard to figure out how he could have 4x. But then, the only way he can think you'll call this is if you have a 4. or maybe AJ/AK but surely you would have bet those before now. And this would seem to be the most -EV bluff ever.

I guess give him JJ and fold but I doubt I could do it sitting at the PC. If he was in LP and we could give him A4 & 64 it's better but still how does he not bet the turn??

AA/JJ/44 are the only hands I think woudl do this from UTG. Seem pretty stupid for him to play anything else this way.

I agree AK/AQ would bet earlier and seems kinda spazzy for anyone decent to play it like this.

wow thats pretty sick, yea AA/JJ/44 have to be the only hands he does this with, but what kind of value is he getting out of it, unless you have a hand like that .. i mean if hes tryin to make a bluff you're not betting your hole stack so rule that out .. i personally fold breaking my mouse at the same time...

In triple draw NL, people usually shove when they got the nuts but, this is not triple draw. I think he has AJs. He didn't want to bet with J kicker on the flop; he was going to check raise you on turn, that's why he checked again and, finally,...i don't know why he would overbet with the nuts. I put him on AJs.

i thought you only posted tough spots

I have no problem folding this. He's going to show us AA/JJ nearly always.

Could you post his country of origin?

Could you use this HH in a sentence?

ok, F-O-L-D-D-D-D!! Foldddd, DING! .. im sorry the correct response is F-O-L-D, Fold

Im snap calling this...Looking at it from his angle. He would do this with AK, AQ, AJ for value if he puts you on ANY pp. He knows the A and the J are scare cards for you and he wants value. IMO AA and JJ would bet the turn to build a pot for the river.

Board: Ah 4s 4d Js 6c

Hand 0: 75.000% 6h6s }
Hand 1: 25.000% { AA, JJ, 44, AKs, AJs, AKo, AJo }

AJ is somewhat possible, but I wouldn't weight it as high as AA/JJ. 44 isn't too likely either given his preflop raise.

Pokerstove is great, but given that there's so many more combos for AJ than AA/JJ, I think for this case AJ is way overweighted. I'd guess that in this spot he has AA/JJ 60% of the time, 44 5%, AJ 30%, and AK/AQ/A6 5%. So we'd have 35% equity, getting terrible odds.

He would do this with AK, AQ, AJ for value if he puts you on ANY pp. He knows the A and the J are scare cards for you and he wants value.

explain?

Originally Posted by drmcboy

He would do this with AK, AQ, AJ for value if he puts you on ANY pp. He knows the A and the J are scare cards for you and he wants value.

explain?

If villain is a decent player like mcat thinks he is. Then villain should be able to put hero on a range. When villain checks mcat would most likely bet out if he has a similar hand (AK, AQ, AJ). When hero checks behind, its not hard for villain to put hero on a PP. Its hard to squeeze chips from hero as the same reasons as why hero never bet. So the only thing left is for villain to bet river. Well, the pot is so small theres no real value to be made. So he shoves to make it look like a bluff.

Originally Posted by dthorne04

YEAH! WHAT HE SAID!!!

Couldn't we fire a 2/3 pot bet on the turn? After two checks, it's possible we're ahead, and we could take it down. If he raises, he has something better than us, and we have an easy fold before the river nastiness ensues. If he calls, and shoves river, we have to decide whether he's shoving a missed draw or overshoving the nuts. I just like having the knowledge that he had something worth calling with on the turn.

I really want to call as played, and probably would (maybe that's why I'm still at the $11s and not the $55s), but with the reads, I cannot put him on a weak range. It's just that there's so little in the pot, there's no reason to over-shove except for value... but I want to believe he's overplaying/bluffing something.

you need to get better at reading hands if you think we're ahead after a TAGG opens utg and checks on this board.

did we know he was a TAGG before he over-shoved the river and we OPR'ed him? perhaps, but since it's 10/20 not necessarily

edit: i guess that it's pretty rare that i OPR a player before getting the chips in... maybe that's something that i should try to do in odd spots

ya, ya got me, you're clearly right, no one would ever check their showdownable hands here and bet all their bluffs, that'd be silly.

wtf why did I wander into the MTT forum, fucking kill me plz.

I can't believe I have been thinking about this hand for almost an hour. Since noone can know exactly what he has, we have to be pessimistic about our hand considering the amount we already put in the pot and we don't know where our hand stands at. So, I am putting him AA, JJ, or 44.

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

wtf why did I wander into the MTT forum, fucking kill me plz.

I always found your insight valuable FWIW...

this thread makes me a sad panda.

Yeah, I've found everyone's comments insightful too. This hand makes me second guess every river choice, so I'm just trying to think of ways to find out more information. I rarely see this done early, so I don't know what to make of it.

Thanks fwiw

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

wtf why did I wander into the MTT forum, fucking kill me plz.

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

wtf why did I wander into the MTT forum, fucking kill me plz.

mcatdog will you post the results? or do you think there is more to discuss?

he clearly folded b/c:

a. he doesn't suck at poker
2. other people (i.e. UTG) suck at poker
d. poker is fun, for everyone

results are I folded and he didn't show

So gross and I could never fold but it seems to be JJ alot. Prob why I suck at MTTs.