THX TO TAIPAN FOR ICM GUIDE


1. Opp hand range: 14,5 % or is that too little?
77+,A9s+,KTs+,QJs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo

2.
a. Hero folds to the raise: 1115 / 9%
b. Hero pushes and opp folds: 1595 / 12,5%
c. Hero pushes, opp calls and Hero wins: 2230 /17,8%
d. Hero pushes, opp calls and Hero loses: 0 / 0%

3. See #2!

4. Opp is raising 77-AA (8 x 6 possible way of getting dealt them = 48)
Opp is raising 9 unpaired hands (9 x 16 =144)
Opp is raising 192 hands.

-He will call a push with 99-AA (6 * 6 =36 )
And AK,AQ,AJ(remember i have AJ),KQ,KJ,AT. (5 * 16 = 96, +1 * 9 coz I have a AJ right?)
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So he will call with 89 hands and fold 55. So opp will fold to a push, 55/144 = 38,19%

5. So as taipan say use PokerStove, Heros AJ is 46,6% to win against Opp call range.

6. Hero’s overall share of the prize pool if Hero pushes:
- 38,19% of the time opp folds and Hero’s stack is worth 12,5% of prize pool.
-(61,81% * 46,6%) =28,8% of the time opp calls and Hero wins so Hero’s stack is worth 17.8% of the prize pool.
-(61,81% * 53,39%) =33% of the time opp calls and Hero loses so Hero is out.

So Hero’s % of the prize pool by pushing is (38,19% * 9%) + (28,8% * 17.8%) + (33% * 0) = 8,56%, which is lower than if I folded. So all in all, if I have Opp range correct this is a fold! I never thought this.

There is a few errors im sure. Please let me know