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the 1200 extra chips in the pot from the 2 KOs at risk swings this from being kind of close into a pretty easy call.
Getting 2.2:1 on our call means we need about 31% equity, and we can afford to even have that drop a little bit because we cover both (KO equity counts for something, at least).
Ranging 1st reshover on a common-ish resteal range of pairs, 22+,A5s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,A8o+,KJo+, and the bb on a nitty 88+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+, we're 32% to scoop whole pot. But winning at least the side pot is worth our money back in the hand, and vs villian 1's reship range we're 57/43.
So (57-32=) 25% of the time we break even (ish).
32% of the time we profit about 28000 chips
and (100-32-25) 43% of the time we lose 16900 chips
0.25*0 = 0 chips (obv)
0.32*28000 = +8960 chips when we win
0.43*16900= -7267 chips when we lose
Difference, not including KOs = +1693 chips, or 1.6bb... A healthy amount. Also, in the $54 KO with 3k starting stacks, the value of a KO is about 600 chips (starting stack/5, because a bounty is 1/5 of the buyin).
So 25% of the time we break even but make 1 KO
32% of the time we make 2 KOs
43% of the time we make 0 KOs
.25 x 1 = +0.25 KOs
.32 x 2 = +0.64 KOs
.43 x 0 = -0 KOs
Total: +0.89 KOs, or +534 chips on top of cEV.
Total cEV of call (excluding ICM since no ICM situation was presented in OP) = (1693+534) +2227 chips, or over 2.2bb.
Cliffs: snapcall
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