A8 flops middle pair, opp shoves river ($27)

Opp's stats were 18/5 over 153 hands, he is a losing player (-11% ROI, -$2369 over 1k games). The safe play is definitely to fold with 9x BB left, but we are getting 2.4 to 1 pot odds and the river shove could be a bluff...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) (t1495)
SB (t2595)
BB (t2180)
UTG (t2480)
MP (t1390)
CO (t3360)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 8
3 folds, Hero raises to t250, 1 fold, BB calls t150

Flop: (t550) 6, 8, 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t350, BB calls t350

Turn: (t1250) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (t1250) 2 (2 players)
BB bets t1580 (All-In), Hero ????

How were you playing up to this point? Were you playing a lot of position poker against opp?

If he puts you on a button steal and is deciding to float your flop CBet (which is a solid play) he shouldn't be checking the turn. If he hit the 10 or Q I would think he bets out. The river 2 doesn't scare me.

I may call this bet. He could have Ax or a small pair.

He may have expected you to bet the turn and you declined. Its possible that this is nothing more that a bluff, or it could be a bet designed to look that way. He could have luck-sacked a straight on either the flop or the turn (97, J9). Then again I don't know how often you find players at that level overshoving the nuts/near nuts.

Still, I don't think I would want to try and catch a bluff with 3rd pair and find out he held AT or QT.

I just dont think theres enough missed draws in his range to make this good. The only real bluffs that make sense are if villian made a loose call with a gutshot on the flop or if they have A6 and decide to spazz out. Like you I'm always pretty suspious of these overbets especially when your line is pretty weak...just don't think there are enough possible bluffs

It looks like a total bluff, I call

Typically, I fold preflop in these spots due to being 15bbs and I don't want to be shoved on or if there are loose passive stations in the blinds. As far as how the hand played out, I would fold. It might be a bluff, but you don't have much info to go on. Just fold and look to push your way back into this.