Bubble Play, What's Your Line?

Paradise Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

BB (t5377.00)
Hero (t715.00)
Button (t555.00)
SB (t3353.00)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, K. SB posts a blind of t100.
Hero...

Such a clear push it doesn't even deserve discussion.

-'rilla

SB and BB are going to be calling very liberally here. I would think they are calling any ace any pair, and a smattering of any two broadway combos or any two suited cards. Powertools is going to show this as a -EV analysis.

Yet this is a difficult situation. Your only other option is to play the waiting game. This spot just sucks.

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

Such a clear push it doesn't even deserve discussion.

-'rilla

Blind sizes changed since i posted this. Still think it's a clear push and I don't think busting here is so bad.

-'rilla

Pushing in this situation, I know I'm either a coinflip or a dog to any caller. I need to pick up blinds to stay alive. I guess I just need to hope that no one else has a hand that will beat mine.

I think you have to take into account picking up the blinds (300 chips) in the EV calculation. I am basically up against 3 random hands (and small stack's range is going to be tight). Does the Powertools take that into account?

Result:
I pushed and was up against KK - I guess it was just bad luck.

Edit:
Yeah, sorry about the blind sizes 'rilla. I didn't notice that the converter doesn't work well on Paradise tournament hands (it converts the SB to the BB).

Blind sizes changed since i posted this. Still think it's a clear push and I don't think busting here is so bad.

Except for that it's negative EV. If I remember correctly, it was -EV by about -0.6%. OP didn't signify the buyin. But let's say that it is a $33 buyin. Over 100 SNGs played in a situation like this, our hero is costing himself almost $200. I think that's wasteful money. And not good for the ROI. Furthermore, I don't think an argument can be made for $/hr in this situation, as it's the bubble. This is where your money is made.

To OP, the fact that you ran into KK isn't relative to your analysis. That's just the luck of the draw/cards.

I agree that this play is -EV, but the only alternative is to fold and hope to get better cards in the next 3 hands. What is the EV of folding?

I'm not necessarily looking for a +EV play in this situation. I want to make the decision with the highest EV. I think even though pushing here is -EV (by -0.6%) folding here is probably -EV by much more than that. I have most random hands dominated, and that's what I'm up agaisnt.

In a cash game I would never make this move, for sure, because in a cash game each hand stands on it's own. The only way for me to make money in this tournament is to outlast the other small stack. I don't have too much lasting power with only 3.5BB here.

I guess I can see it like this, if I fold, the small stack is in the same position now, having to pay out 50% of his stack in blinds. He's basically committed to any two cards as long as one of the other stacks calls. I just don't like playing so passively just to squeak into the money.

Now, folding here pretty much gurantees me 3rd place and a small profit over my buy-in. What about the added value to me of coming in first? I don't fully understand the math, but I can't see how playing for 3rd is +EV. How does this Powertools work? Given the -EV of this situation, does coming in first instead of 3rd when you win (assumption) have any effect. Even coming in first 33% of the times you win would probably balance off any losses on the bubble from pushing.

I think there are many more factors to consider when making a decision. Are these taken into account?