Bubble, standard raise with 88 gets shoved over ($27)

I'll run the ICM on this one later, but I thought I'd post this for discussion first. SB seems like a reasonable player, stats 21/12 over 80 hands. Thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

BB (t3652)
UTG (t3973)
Hero (t3885)
SB (t1990)

Preflop: Hero is Button with , .
1 fold, Hero raises to t600, SB raises to t1990, 1 fold, Hero ????

Why did you raise to 600 and not a little less, like 500?

Beat him into the pot, if hes a thinking player then he knows how wide your range is and is likely to shove a big range here, 88 is obv the nuts.

I call this

Easy call. You're on the button, he is in the blinds, and you are in OK shape if you call and lose.

Looks like an mousebreakingly quick instacall. I'm guessing by your reference to ICM that this is much closer than it looks. I guess I could see getting away from it if you had raised to 500 but I really can't see anything but a call here.

Feel free to prove me wrong though.

OK, here's the ICM:

- If I fold I will have 3285 chips worth 24.7% of the prize pool
- If I call and win I will have 6075 chips worth 36.9% of the prize pool
- If I call and lose I will have 1895 chips worth 16.7% of the prize pool

Therefore, I need to be (24.7-16.7)/(36.9-16.7) = 39.6% to win to make this a good call.

The tightest range I could imagine opp shoving over with would be 77+, AJ+ and against that range, 88 is 42.2% to win. It's far more likely that opp thinks I'm stealing from the button (although if he thinks about it, I'm raising into a BB who almost has me covered so my range won't be ATC here) so he might shove quite a bit wider. Against 55+, A9+, KQ I'm 49.3% to win.

badgers, I didn't think that it was close (hence I pretty much instacalled) but I wanted to see what everybody thought without looking at the numbers.

Originally Posted by taipan168

OK, here's the ICM:

- If I fold I will have 3285 chips worth 24.7% of the prize pool
- If I call and win I will have 6075 chips worth 36.9% of the prize pool
- If I call and lose I will have 1895 chips worth 16.7% of the prize pool

Therefore, I need to be (24.7-16.7)/(36.9-16.7) = 39.6% to win to make this a good call.

The tightest range I could imagine opp shoving over with would be 77+, AJ+ and against that range, 88 is 42.2% to win. It's far more likely that opp thinks I'm stealing from the button (although if he thinks about it, I'm raising into a BB who almost has me covered so my range won't be ATC here) so he might shove quite a bit wider. Against 55+, A9+, KQ I'm 49.3% to win.

badgers, I didn't think that it was close (hence I pretty much instacalled) but I wanted to see what everybody thought without looking at the numbers.

Originally Posted by mattiesmat

Why did you raise to 600 and not a little less, like 500?

I should have raised a bit less, guess I was too lazy to type in the bet size and just clicked the slider

Originally Posted by taipan168

I should have raised a bit less, guess I was too lazy to type in the bet size and just clicked the slider

OT: I understand with 1 table and one msn window open at a time. :P