Select Page
Poker Forum
Over 1,292,000 Posts!
Poker ForumTournament Poker

ICM question..

Results 1 to 11 of 11

Threaded View

Previous Post Previous Post   Next Post Next Post
  1. #1

    Default ICM question..

    Single table SNG 1500 starting stack super turbo
    100/200 blinds no antes
    UTG $1215 folds
    MP $1650 folds
    BTN $1765 folds
    SB $7400 shoves
    Hero BB $1270 holds

    villain has been shoving atleast twice per orbit, gotten lucky a few times, woke up with a few hands, I think its safe to say with my stack size hes pushing close to 80% here. maybe more, but 80% surely.

    my question is even though im ahead of his range, 58%>41% , how can i calculate if im ICM correct?
    i have setup the ICM calc on chillen411 and its as follows

    UTG $1215 (.129)
    MP $1650 (.167)
    BTN $1765 (.176)
    SB $7400 (.384)
    Hero BB $1270 (.143)

    so if SB shoves, theres 3 out comes,

    i fold (-0.08) *corrected
    UTG $1215 (.130)
    MP $1650 (.168)
    BTN $1765 (.177)
    SB $7400 (.388)
    Hero BB $1270 (.135)

    i call and win (+0.09)
    UTG $1215 (.114)
    MP $1650 (.150)
    BTN $1765 (.159)
    SB $6030 (.343)
    Hero BB $2940 (.233)

    i call and lose (0)
    UTG $1215 (.161)
    MP $1650 (.204)
    BTN $1765 (.213)
    SB $9070 (.421)
    Hero BB $0(.0)

    so 58% of the time i win +0.09
    41% of the time i lose -0.143
    EV= - 0.64??

    some one help me out please. lol

    update**

    I did some more research and found that calling and losing doesn't equal (-0.143) it actually equal 0.

    so if I have 58% vs villians range and my prize pool equity if I win is .233 then
    (.58 * .233) + (.41 * 0) = .13514

    if we fold our equity will drop to .135

    comparing:
    folding = .135
    calling = .135

    EV neutral then??

    lets say he shoves 100% instead.
    (.60 * .233) + (.40 * 0) = .139

    comparing:
    folding = .135
    calling = .139

    that's sick that he can shove 20% more hands and still put us in a bad spot.
    Last edited by acg123; 12-02-2014 at 02:39 PM.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •