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MTT Variance

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  1. #1

    Default MTT Variance

    As a starting point, NoahSD's article is something I will refer to extensively. I'd highly recommend reading it: http://www.nsdpoker.com/2011/01/mtt-pros/ . The follow-up also has more vital information: http://www.nsdpoker.com/2011/02/mtt_pros_2/

    Second, a compilation by TT_Fold of the Pokerstars usernames of 40+ players ranked in the top 50 on Pocketfives only for turbos with a buyin of $44+ and with $1,000 or fewer entrants.

    http://i40.tinypic.com/15e8ye8.jpg


    There's no denying MTT Variance is brutal. One of the best players I know is a low edge, high volume grinder. He's probably the guy I respect the most in poker; his work ethic for both playing and studying is incred. He's now a well-deserved coach on a top training site. He still managed to have a 3 month downswing, grinding full time with more volume than nearly any other MTT reg out there. Eventually, it ended, but it's still obvious on his graph and I can remember the difference in his attitude at the end of the first month to the end of the third month. He bounced back, because that's what MTT players do - shrugged it off, moved on, back to the grind. Variance is an accepted and common problem, amplified by the riches found in large field Sunday tournaments and turbos.

    As NoahSD says,
    Some people are definitely better off playing large-field MTTs than other games. I’ll make an argument below that almost no small/mid-stakes players fit into this category in the current climate. For mid/high-stakes player: If you’re insanely good at MTTs and you’re down to put in lots of volume, then play them. If you really enjoy large-field MTTs and you’re willing and able to deal with their ridiculous variance, then play them. If you’ve got a really sweet backing deal, then play them. If for whatever other reason you think you’d like to play them, I won’t pretend to know what’s best for you. But, make sure you seriously consider the extreme variance that’s involved
    I'll admit to loving tournaments. It's probably not a popular thing to say, but it is. People have told me I could make more money playing high stakes cash, or Sit N Gos, if I put my mind to it. But I don't want to, for so many reasons. I love the buzz you get when you get deep in the tournament. I love going deep in the same massive $11r 3 nights in a row and coming 10th, 11th and 18th just for the determination and drive it gives me to get there. I love watching new tables pop up, and playing on sites no one has ever heard of - Winamax. I love my stable chat, the banter about other regs and railing my friends taking down festival events.

    All that said, the variance is brutal. Personally, I've found the best way to think about it is your earnt dollars per game. If you have a 20% ROI, and you play a $10 ABI, you earn $2 a game in the long run. Keep clicking buttons to that level and get your volume in, and you'll make your $2 a game. Churn it out and enjoy your hourly. Working on your game, and improving your thought processes, will increase your edge which will increase your ROI, lower your variance and increase your hourly. Game selection - playing across 6 or 7 sites - will increase your ROI and hourly dramatically. Some sites are great, some sites are awful. Some you'll find you can't stand because of the software, and it's just not worth playing there. I've played on pretty much every site out there and have an opinion on the software, games and tournaments.

    One last thing - tournaments are like video games. You play, you practice, you get better, you level up. You unlock the next tournaments above you. Repeat. The difference is, poker makes you cash. It's like a video game, for cash. The ups and downs, the high points and the low points, the experiences and social side of it are all part of the fun, and if you can't take the downs then you don't deserve to enjoy the ups.
  2. #2
    One other thing - bad beats. If you want to moan about a bad beat in a Skype chat, or on a forum, you have a problem. Losing AA v 27o on the Sunday Milly final table bubble I would listen to you and apologise. Complaining constantly about how "bad you always run" and how "poker is so unfair" and posting KK v AA and saying "obv" makes me want to tell you to fuck off. In fact, you should fuck off. I've actively removed several people from Twitter, Facebook and Skype for this reason. The beats are just part of your MTTs. You'd never converge to your expectation if bad beats didn't occur. When you started grinding MTTs, no one promised you there wouldn't be bad beats. In fact, everyone must have told you there will be bad beats - hundreds, thousands of them. Can't take it, don't play it. Easy.
  3. #3
    its always refreshing to hear someone tell it how it is ..?
    .. some times I am guilty of the AA vKK self pity .. ( always privately though and not in the chat box )
    But I would like to add to your pearls of wisdom by saying that
    Poker is not just about battling with your opponents .. but for me its also about battling with my self... And how I view and feel about the bad beats and down swings .(variance)
    .. and How I let them effect my play
    Some times the only person I have to beat.. to win... is me !!
    this might not make sense to some .... but from talking to others , I'm sure I'm not alone with this battle
  4. #4
    While I went through my share of broken appliances, it has passed for me.

    A natural progression from anger, to complacency, to feeling happy for the villain.

    When I play live and can see the relief in their face when they hit that 2outer to win. Nowadays, I feel good for them.

    The internal realization, not just the educational knowledge, but the point where the light bulb goes off about variance, just floats anger away. It no longer has a place in this intercourse.

    -
  5. #5
    Sykedupp's Avatar
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    pascal, get me in your fun/mtt skype groups, promise i wont bb troll you too badly :P
    Quote Originally Posted by soupie
    That is the beauty of poker, it doesnt matter how they play, you can always devise the perfect defense and counterpunch hard.
  6. #6
    Stable chat sorry buddy!
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by PotBet View Post
    While I went through my share of broken appliances, it has passed for me.

    A natural progression from anger, to complacency, to feeling happy for the villain.

    When I play live and can see the relief in their face when they hit that 2outer to win. Nowadays, I feel good for them.

    The internal realization, not just the educational knowledge, but the point where the light bulb goes off about variance, just floats anger away. It no longer has a place in this intercourse.

    -
    I wouldn't say I feel good about some dickhead 2 outering me, especially if it's some dolty reg who has done something and got there (normally on a French site), but they don't affect the way I play, I don't moan about them, and the short initial sighhhhhhhh fucks sake moment fades after a few seconds.
  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Pascal View Post
    I wouldn't say I feel good about some dickhead 2 outering me,
    lol. He's just a guy like you. Anger is to be directed at what? Dealer, shuffle machine, that sticky part on one card that made the shuffle go this way? Him, for getting himself in the exact spot you wanted him in?

    There is really nothing to be angry with. Especially when we get a villain on the ropes and he finds a right hook from nowhere. Hey, we wanted him in that spot.

    Really. I have no tilt problems any more. Frustration problems up the kazoo though. But I'm using logic to deal with that.

    Frustration come straight from the fact that we can't affect a thing which we really want to affect. If we can't do anything about it, then why beat ourselves up?

    I dunno... but I sure have the bruises.

    -
  9. #9
    I'm not say I feel angry, or frustrated. I'm just saying if someone plays badly and gets there I don't feel happy for them - why would I? I want to win.

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