NC: Losing/breakeven stretches

For you grinders, how often do you experience breakeven/losing stretches and how long can they typically go on for? Last month I was near breakeven for a game I was previously beating with ~35% ROI through over 400 games. Obviously I was running hot but these were regular speed tournaments with bad players and I game selected when I saw the best regs

I'm now starting to play 16s/27s (turbos) to get in more volume...but the variance continues. I don't feel like the variance has changed the way I play at all...its actually made me question my plays more and review ICM pushes. I feel like I'm playing the best poker I've ever played.....yet I now have an ROI roughly around 1% over my last 180 games

The expected ROI at the $16/27 turbo games will be lower and the variance higher than the normal speed games because of the quicker blind increases plus (I suspect) the greater number of good regs in those games.

That said, I've had a few breakeven/downswing patches in the 2000+ games I've played - both lasted a couple of hundred games and in some cases resulted in 30+ buyin downswings. The way I got through these was to analyse my game even more intensively by running hands/tourneys through SNG Wiz and also posting hands/tourneys for review.

That said, if you are playing your A game then all you can really do is tough it out and trust the poker gods to even it all out in the end.

so what's the average ROI over 580? I don't really see a problem here besides you thinking you would run at 35% forever.

i've been playing $16 18 mans the last few months and April i had a 4k month (including some 45 mans , and fpp value) , and in the same amount of volume i played in april , may i made like $600-700 (1200 games each month).
this month i've played about 200 games and am down $.
variance is a little worse at the 18 mans turbos compared to the 9mans though.
and your will have a lower roi and more swings at the turbo's compared to the regulars you use to play.
i've sharkscoped good regulars who have played 10,000+ games and some have 2k+ game breakeven stretches.

i've sharkscoped good regulars who have played 10,000+ games and some have 2k+ game breakeven stretches.

that is very scary.

this thread also scares me even though i dont understand it much...

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...ad.php?t=73786

Dude rofl 180 games at 1% ROI is nothing. I don't remember exactly, cuz i switched to cash, but I'd be 100% not surprised to see a 400 game stretch where I'm down money.

I hate 50 game losing streaks (or even break even streaks).

Keep playing your A game, and do plenty of reviewing to make sure you really are playing your A game.

I think this is why people who have played a lot will tell you that you need to play many thousands of games to get a true reading of your ROI. You can have long stretches running good, bad, or break-even, especially at turbos. When you have played thousands of games, these values even out and you get a much more accurate value.