Negative Variance Sucks! (NT)

Nuff Said

yessir.

break even for a month or two and come back =).

im hoping this is going to be the only "varinace sucks" post in this forum, im going to link to it in the faq.

break even for a month or two and come back =).

Yup, that's what I'm doing now. Down Down Down, finaly win a couple and come back. Down Down Down, desperate, hey back even again. It just seems like such a waste. I'm just in slow quicksand. When you are ITM at the last 3 is it normal that every time you have a middle ace another guy has an at or better?

Am I only one who, instead of breaking even, tends to have insane good runs followed by insane bad runs?

Originally Posted by Cpaz

Nuff Said

Not even a cool graph that represents the simultaneous fall of you bankroll and pride?

-'rilla

Originally Posted by Rockymv

Am I only one who, instead of breaking even, tends to have insane good runs followed by insane bad runs?

Yep, I murder it for awhile, then I can't even fold my way into a third for awhile.

Not even a cool graph that represents the simultaneous fall of you bankroll and pride?

Nah, nothing fancy like that. Last month I cleared a grand with a ROI of 32. This month I'm up a whole $60 bucks so far with a measley ROI of 8. I've not quite played a quarter of the tourneys I did last month but I'm really going to have to get going to come close to last month.

I'm never going to be able to quit my day job at this rate! :P

Originally Posted by Rockymv

Am I only one who, instead of breaking even, tends to have insane good runs followed by insane bad runs?

I'm glad it's not just me then. My results graphs tend to look much like a toblerone placed on a slight hill and after finishing ITM 8 out of 10 it'll flip and I'm lucky to place in 2 or 3. I'm trying to work out if this is the ugly head of variance or if there's something deeper in my psychology causing it.

It's all very un-zen but I know after a good winning streak I do tend to get very confident and start making plays I really should have no business making purely because the recent results make me feel bulletproof. This I feel may well be the cause of the bad runs, maybe the good runs are the opposite? You start realising you have to sit down and pay attention and then things kick back in.

Who knows, I don't have a massive sample size to really examine this but if it keeps happening it might point to a leak and the first step to fixing a problem is rooting out the cause. Anyone else with the same thing found that this pointed them to a hole in their game they can plug?

This is pretty typical of my play lately. I put the results in to show the result. I know it's still early in the tourney. Did I push this one too hard? How do I put this guy on 79s and that draw on the flop after my 4x BB!

Sheesh!

#Game No : 2998463267
***** Hand History for Game 2998463267 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:17220897 Level:2 Blinds(15/30) - Monday, November 07, 18:52:52 EDT 2005
Table Table 67751 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 4: cdgallun ( $505 )
Seat 6: jayhawk786 ( $830 )
Seat 1: delolot008 ( $975 )
Seat 9: Jazzyjas ( $1025 )
Seat 7: PazzMan ( $605 )
Seat 8: droolalatzi ( $550 )
Seat 10: maxjd ( $520 )
Seat 2: takaras717 ( $1035 )
Seat 3: Wh0r0r ( $1955 )
Trny:17220897 Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to PazzMan [ Qs Ac ]
Wh0r0r folds.
cdgallun calls [30].
jayhawk786 calls [30].
PazzMan raises [120].
droolalatzi folds.
Jazzyjas folds.
maxjd folds.
delolot008 folds.
takaras717 folds.
cdgallun folds.
jayhawk786 calls [90].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8c, 6d, Ah ]
jayhawk786 checks.
PazzMan bets [175].
jayhawk786 calls [175].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5h ]
jayhawk786 checks.
PazzMan is all-In [310]
jayhawk786 calls [310].
** Dealing River ** [ Js ]
jayhawk786 shows [ 7d, 9d ] a straight, five to nine.
PazzMan shows [ Qs, Ac ] a pair of aces.
jayhawk786 wins 1285 chips from the main pot with a straight, five to nine.
PazzMan finished in ninth place.

bad beat posts go in bad beat forums son.............trikflow for president...........

You know what trik...............

I know you are the man around here but you sure don't make a poster welcome. I'm sort of tired of your standard responses. I know where bad beat posts go and I have posted there. I think I was clearly illustrating the rest of my post.

Give me a break man! I like this forum but usually when posting you are always there to show people how dumb they are.

Thanks and bow to you oh God of poker.

You need to open push that flop.

Now that's feedback. Thank you.

Just betting a little more than half the pot doesn't punish the chasers enough? Are you poushing because of the possible str or just because of my stack.

I like my game but want to fill some holes.

Thanks again.

Originally Posted by Trikflow77

bad beat posts go in bad beat forums son.............trikflow for president...........

worthless posts belong in the commune.

byt he way u still havnt told me how I shouldve played that JJ hand.
"*cough weak tight cough "
is about the shittiest advice iv ever gotten.

vqc for president.

Originally Posted by vqc

Originally Posted by Trikflow77

bad beat posts go in bad beat forums son.............trikflow for president...........

worthless posts belong in the commune.

byt he way u still havnt told me how I shouldve played that JJ hand.
"*cough weak tight cough "
is about the shittiest advice iv ever gotten.

vqc for president.

i forgot to even look back on that post.......I would have bet the turn and checked behind on the river......thats what i would have done. I want to play a small pot, but i dont want to let him have free cards when i have a solid hand, and he will be paying off a small turn bet with a second best hand.

And Cpaz....i dont think im the man.... I think you played the hand fine...but I would have pusheded that flop i think, any decent size bet on that flop leaves you with nothing left to bet on the turn..... But it still was not really misplayed, i could go either way here.

The only reason i said anything about your hand is there is nothing you could really do....that donkey would have called your open push with his draw and you would have lost the hand.....this is one beat of many that makes poke r a swingy game.

Originally Posted by Trikflow77

Originally Posted by vqc

Originally Posted by Trikflow77

bad beat posts go in bad beat forums son.............trikflow for president...........

worthless posts belong in the commune.

byt he way u still havnt told me how I shouldve played that JJ hand.
"*cough weak tight cough "
is about the shittiest advice iv ever gotten.

vqc for president.

i forgot to even look back on that post.......I would have bet the turn and checked behind on the river......thats what i would have done. I want to play a small pot, but i dont want to let him have free cards when i have a solid hand, and he will be paying off a small turn bet with a second best hand.

And Cpaz....i dont think im the man.... I think you played the hand fine...but I would have pusheded that flop i think, any decent size bet on that flop leaves you with nothing left to bet on the turn..... But it still was not really misplayed, i could go either way here.

The only reason i said anything about your hand is there is nothing you could really do....that donkey would have called your open push with his draw and you would have lost the hand.....this is one beat of many that makes poke r a swingy game.

You never let me down trik.
Trik for pres.

Thanks.

Appreciate the comments.