Open folding KK at the final table.. ? (not hypothetical)

Online 50 person $10 buyin tournament. Final 4. Blinds/antes are 400/800/50.

Stacks are:
UTG- 1600
BTN- 750
SB (Hero)- 10,500
BB (fairly terrible laggy guy)- 51,000

Payouts are:
$200
$120
$ 80
$ 60

UTG and BTN fold to Hero who has KK. BB says in chat "[Hero] I will call u". With the two shorties being so short, I can easily fold my way into 2nd and then go heads up outchipped about 6-1.

If BB will call any 2 (I believe he will), this is a fold, right? If I have AA I would push 100%, but KK is so vulnerable to any ace. I don't have or know how to use ICM, but I suspect that it would be close... Thoughts?

KK vs Ax ---> 7:3 fav

KK vs ATC ----> close to 5:1

I think I'm gambling this

I'm not sure if the idea "play to win" is the correct way of thinking here. He says he will call you, which usually is not a strong hand. Please push, this is hardly "gambling" as you put it.

If you believe him then this is a fold.

I don't believe him though.

*head asplode*

SHOVE!!!

I very much believe that this guy would call off 1/5th of his stack with anything just so he could have the lulz of having 30x his last 2 opponents' stacks combined if he beat me.

In fact that is why I did push into him. If I knew he would only call me with Ax/88+ I would have folded.

Results below:

I think a few seconds, say to myself that I'm not good enough to open fold kings here and with 20k chips I could take 1st quite often against this guy. He insta-calls Q6o and only pairs once, doubling me up. Not long after I trap him for all his chips preflop with ATs vs his A2o and take it down.

If he's calling with anything, folding KK is even worse.

I don't understand threads like these - it's not a satellite, it's a tourney. They goal is to win the damn thing. This isn't a decision at all - it's an insta-play.

Originally Posted by KoRnholio

In fact that is why I did push into him. If I knew he would only call me with Ax/88+ I would have folded.

This is bad logic. From an ICM perspective you don't want him to call unless your chances of winning the hand are 90% or better. In other words, him calling with Q6o was -EV for you. The more hands he calls with, the worse off you are.

Good thread though, interesting hand to post. Good example of why great players have a bigger edge in satellites than they have in regular tournaments. In satellites you have lots of situations -- like this one which although it's not a satellite, it shares the same characteristic of satellite hands -- where the obvious play isn't the correct one, and you have to think carefully about what to do. A great player can process all the information and make the right decision even if he's never been in that situation before. In regular MTTs, new situations don't come up all that often and you can get an OK ROI by playing on autopilot.

In case that paragraph sounds arrogant I don't think I'm a great player, but I think I'm decent enough that my edge in satellites is bigger than my edge in regular MTTs assuming equal buy-ins and equally skilled opponents.

Originally Posted by mcatdog

Originally Posted by KoRnholio

In fact that is why I did push into him. If I knew he would only call me with Ax/88+ I would have folded.

This is bad logic. From an ICM perspective you don't want him to call unless your chances of winning the hand are 90% or better. In other words, him calling with Q6o was -EV for you. The more hands he calls with, the worse off you are.

How did you get the number 90% from ICM? There aren't any hands that KK is a 90% favorite over (it's 88.7% against 72o that shares the same suits as the kings). That would indicate that the KK is a fold if we knew he was calling with any 2. But my stack isn't big enough to be a total shoe in for 2nd if I fold until the shorties bust.

I read up on an ICM procedure in a book and adapted it here. I pretty much shot from the hip on the placement percentages with my current and potential stack though.

A) Folding and having a 15% chance at first place money (I will be ouchipped at least 6:1 if I wait for the shorties to bust first), 75% chance of 2nd, 5% of 3rd and 5% of 4th = EV of $127

or B) Assuming his calling range is any ace and any PP (20% of all hands) I will win an all in against him (if called) 72% of the time giving me a much better chance at first. I'd say I would have a 29% chance of 4th (28% getting knocked out in the all in, 1% if I win and somehow still lose to both shorties), 2% chance of 3rd, 44% chance of 2nd and 35% chance of 1st (I will still be ouchipped 2:1)= EV of $129.80 if called. If he folds (80% of the time) I see a small gain in chips so my EV will be a little above the $127 that I would have if folding. Maybe $130 or so. Averages out to about $130 EV

or C) If his calling range is really any 2 it improves my chances in the all in to 82% making the %ages 19% for 4th, 2% 3rd, 44% 2nd, 35% 1st (% of getting 1st and 3rd stays the same since I will have the same number of chips when I win the all in, as in B)). This nets an EV of: $135.80

I think my guesstimates of my win %'s with certain stack sizes are pretty close to correct, so there is a small increase in EV by pushing here, but I am thinking it is a lot closer than most people would have thought right off the bat when seeing this hand.

BTW I did this math in a spreadsheet, so there shouldn't be any computational errors, just errors in judgment in what % of the time I will place given my stack size (I adjusted slightly for the better for my superior skills ).

I also did a calculation for specifically Q6o. I will win that all in 87.% of the time, giving an EV (following the numbers above) of $138.50.

Now that I've worked through this, I probably should have just done ICM the right way using specific stack sizes. But I think this is a pretty close approximation.

Originally Posted by chardrian

If he's calling with anything, folding KK is even worse.

I don't understand threads like these - it's not a satellite, it's a tourney. They goal is to win the damn thing. This isn't a decision at all - it's an insta-play.

No, icm is important here.. I'm a sng/icm donkey and (fwiw) KK seems an push here but I'm not sure at all about TT-QQ..

Originally Posted by KoRnholio

Online 50 person $10 buyin tournament. Final 4. Blinds/antes are 400/800/50.

Stacks are:
UTG- 1600
BTN- 750
SB (Hero)- 10,500
BB (fairly terrible laggy guy)- 51,000

Payouts are:
$200
$120
$ 80
$ 60

UTG and BTN fold to Hero who has KK. BB says in chat "[Hero] I will call u". With the two shorties being so short, I can easily fold my way into 2nd and then go heads up outchipped about 6-1.

If BB will call any 2 (I believe he will), this is a fold, right? If I have AA I would push 100%, but KK is so vulnerable to any ace. I don't have or know how to use ICM, but I suspect that it would be close... Thoughts?

According to ICM this is a fold. Sounds crazy. Even if you open shove and you know that he will call with ATC, it's bad. You have to have AA and AA against an uber tight ass to make this +. That is if you are pushing into him. According to SNGPT you can not call off you chips with any hand. Therefore, if you standard raise and he pushes, you have to fold.

The reason is that you are not in any jeopardy to bust right now and you have 2nd in chips locked-up. If you bust before the shorties, you are throwing equity to them. Just try to pwned on the shorties if the big stack will let you and chip-up off of them.

see a flop?

Originally Posted by chardrian

If he's calling with anything, folding KK is even worse.

I don't understand threads like these - it's not a satellite, it's a tourney. They goal is to win the damn thing. This isn't a decision at all - it's an insta-play.

The goal is to win the most money in the long run, not to just win tournaments. What you said is analogous to wanting to win the most pots rather than the most money/number of bets in a cash game.

With the small number of players/fairly flat prize structure, this is much more like a sit n go than a MTT when it comes to calculating EV of plays.

Originally Posted by KoRnholio

The goal is to win the most money in the long run, not to just win tournaments.

5 out of 6 times you'll double up your chips in this situation. How is that not making money in the long run?

Wtf, i didn't even read the whole post, just shove. If he thinks about folding, beg him to call.

Originally Posted by Jack Sawyer

Originally Posted by KoRnholio

The goal is to win the most money in the long run, not to just win tournaments.

5 out of 6 times you'll double up your chips in this situation. How is that not making money in the long run?

Here's a game. I'll roll two dice, and if they both come up 6, you have to give me $1000. Otherwise, I give you $1. Want to play? You'll win 35 times out of 36!

Originally Posted by ChrisTheFish

Wtf, i didn't even read the whole post, just shove. If he thinks about folding, beg him to call.

Yeah! Who needs critical thinking and math when you can just play on autopilot like a bot.

Originally Posted by drmcboy

see a flop?

Not a bad idea, but I am 99% sure this villain will see my limp (or small raise) and scream "FREE MONEY!" as he shoves all his chips in with any 2 cards.

Originally Posted by Jack Sawyer

Originally Posted by KoRnholio

The goal is to win the most money in the long run, not to just win tournaments.

5 out of 6 times you'll double up your chips in this situation. How is that not making money in the long run?

Because doubling your money "5 out of 6 times" might not be a high enough reward (ie, a better chance at first place money) in this spot when it means finishing 4th 1 in 6 times.

Let's say the stack sizes were more extreme, say 55k for the villain in the BB, 5k for us and 500 for each shorty. With the same prize payouts, would you still choose to gamble unnecessarily when your choices are to basically to:

A) Finish 4th 1 in 5 times and be outchipped 5:1 going into a heads up battle if you survive.

or B) Be guaranteed 2nd place money, and go into the heads up battle outchipped 10:1?

I would hope not. Unless you don't like money. My point is, there are situations where you should choose sure survival to make the most money in the long run. My original post may or may not be one of these spots, hence the debate.