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Satelitte bubble

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  1. #1

    Default Satelitte bubble

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (7 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

    MP2 (t11901)
    CO (t31835)
    Button (t28250)
    SB (t35207)
    Hero (t16817)
    UTG (t12155)
    MP1 (t8215)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with A, Q.
    5 folds, SB completes, Hero raises to t2000, SB calls t1200.

    Flop: (t3900) T, 6, Q (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets t2500, SB raises to t11200, Hero raises to t14767, SB calls t3567.

    Turn: (t33434) 2 (2 players)

    River: (t33434) 2 (2 players)

    Final Pot: t33434
    SB had Q2. OK maybe I should have posted this to the bad beats forum, but I am not really sure if I played OK given that there are like
    15 players left and 8 people gets the ticket to the Sunday Million. I'm like 11th. Should have just played in sit out mode? Can I fold the TPTK?
    <OFFTOPIC>
    I've played another satelitte today with like 50 ppl and the first 2 got the tickets, of course I was eliminated 3rd for getting back the buyin.
    Same story here just with like 200 players. I think you can imagine my mood right now.
    </OFFTOPIC>
    Where I am, I don't know, I'll never know, in the silence you don't know, you must go on, I can't go on, I'll go on.
  2. #2
    With that stack I am sitting. You most likely could have waited for a better hand. Why get involved at all? You have grinded way too long to get busted in a scenario you didnt have to be in at all.
    {Solicitation URL removed by Xianti}
  3. #3
    I slide that preflop. You have a 20BB stack, and AQ is way too strong to just limp here, so why not just add the chips that are out there.
    I dont fold after i flop TPTK there.
  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by curtom
    With that stack I am sitting.
    Nonononono don't do this.

    In satellites there are times when you need to sit out, but more often than not, people sit out before they can really afford to and. The best way to make sure you win a seat is to pick on the sit-outers' blinds relentlessly. It can get pretty tricky to determine when you need more chips and when you don't, but when there's 15 left, 8 seats, and you're in 11th, it's not even a question, you need chips.

    The hand in the OP was played perfectly IMO. Folding or shoving pre-flop are both bad plays because this is a great chance to go get more chips and neither of those plays accomplishes that.
  5. #5
    With there still being 15 people left and top 8 getting tickets, you can't afford to stop accumulating chips in your current position. Felt this, nh.
    Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
  6. #6
    Yeah, but when I was eliminated, the tournament was over in like 2 minutes and even when there were 9 players left I would have been like 5 or 6th with 3 Shortstacks. So I could have easily folded myself to the money in this case. I am still quiet nervous when I think about technically losing 200$ when my Opponent was a 9:1 dog. But actually checking the AQ preflop would have probably been even more dangerous. Lol that 200$ is like 1/3 of my full bankroll :P
    Where I am, I don't know, I'll never know, in the silence you don't know, you must go on, I can't go on, I'll go on.
  7. #7
    And the other thing is that the thought process of my opponent is mysterious at least. Does he think that I am going broke without a queen? Or does he hope that he can lay out a bad beat and if it doesn't happen then he doesn't lose anything really? WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
    thx for listening )))
    Where I am, I don't know, I'll never know, in the silence you don't know, you must go on, I can't go on, I'll go on.
  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by szamvan
    Yeah, but when I was eliminated, the tournament was over in like 2 minutes and even when there were 9 players left I would have been like 5 or 6th with 3 Shortstacks. So I could have easily folded myself to the money in this case.
    This is very rare and it'd be results-oriented to conclude that you should've sat out. Sometimes the bubble goes on for a long time. Once I was in the final four of a satellite that paid three spots and it took 45 minutes for someone to get knocked out. If anyone had tried to fold their way to the money, obv that person would've lost.
  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by mcatdog
    Quote Originally Posted by szamvan
    Yeah, but when I was eliminated, the tournament was over in like 2 minutes and even when there were 9 players left I would have been like 5 or 6th with 3 Shortstacks. So I could have easily folded myself to the money in this case.
    This is very rare and it'd be results-oriented to conclude that you should've sat out. Sometimes the bubble goes on for a long time. Once I was in the final four of a satellite that paid three spots and it took 45 minutes for someone to get knocked out. If anyone had tried to fold their way to the money, obv that person would've lost.
    But I guess it was more deep and also there is a greater chance that there are some bad players in a set of 15 people then in a set of 4 which in itself can change a lot. And that's not just statistics, there really were some players who were playing very bad. With an average M of around 9 -and decreasing obviously because of the bubble- there is less skill involved, but you can really benefit if there are 4 or 5 players in the tournament who would be glad to go -or even worse call an- all in with AQs or a low pp in the bubble. So maybe it was a rare case when I could fold myself ITM, but I suspect that it might be very frequent in that situation. And take into account that that was an 500 FPP tournament so we probably should not think that the other players were not going to make enormous mistakes (probably the hand in the OP was quite a mistake from the opponents part too)
  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by curtom
    Why get involved at all?
    What exactly do you mean with that?
    I can't fold preflop because I'm the BB and nobody has raised. Check TPTK after opponent has checked OOP? Fold to reraise totally pot commited?
  11. #11
    I don't know what the FPP satties are like. I've played a whole lot of satellites between $10 and $40, and a smaller number between $50 and $100, but no FPP ones.

    Anyway, in my experience, when you get close to the bubble, the bad players tend to fold too much and get blinded out, rather than playing too many hands and going down in flames.

    On the other hand, I've certainly been in satellites with a bunch of crazy monkeys and I just kept folding because I knew they'd knock themselves out. You have to know the players at your table, it's even more important in satellites than in regular poker tournaments.

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