TT flops overpair, Villain shoves ($27)

No solid reads, but opp is shaping up to be a LAgg, stats 45/27 over first 11 hands. At a low buyin I would instacall here, but here? On a dry board like that what does a laggy donk call preflop with and shove over on the flop?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

CO (t1805)
Button (t1530)
SB (t1040)
BB (t2070)
UTG (t1720)
Hero (t1720)
MP1 (t1100)
MP2 (t910)
MP3 (t1605)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T, T.
UTG raises to t90, Hero calls t90, 2 folds, MP3 calls t90, 4 folds.

Flop: (t315) 6, 3, 8 (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets t200, MP3 raises to t1515, UTG folds, Hero ????

i fold for no other reason other than you still have 1500 chips if you fold and screwed if you lose.

Other than something like A8, what are you ahead of?

I think i can find a painful fold here

i think im calling here, and the worst thing im up against is 83, then i still have back door outs and pair the board.

He flat called preflop, and his check raise all in shows that he does not have a set. I really dont think he has 83, and if he had 86 or a set he would for sure smooth call and then push the turn with 2 pair and check again with a set. MIGHT have jj. prob not.

He probably has 57, 79, 78, 89, or a8.

If he is check raising the hell out of you with a set, then he disguised his hand perfectly and just type nh and load up another. I

I think you are ahead.

Looks like a8/99 to me. If he had jacks he would probly reraise you pf with how is stats are looking to be (not that they are very reliable, but you have to go off of something. I dont think he has 86/83, but it is possible he has a set and puts you on an over pair. I think both those are unlikely because well is a raised pot so 86/83 is less likely and he pushed over your raise which most bad/mediocre players wouldnt do with a set.

If it is a set, it's poorly played unless he's trying to level you. That board is not dangerous for a set and I would think he would just standard raise you. Sine he is shaping up to be a LAG, then I would have to consider he has a str8 draw as well and is trying to get you to fold. I don't see him smooth calling with a pair that beats you. If you run this range: 99-66,33,A8s,97s,75s,A8o in stove you are a favorite.

Even thought this is an SNG, it is early on and you need to take advantage of your edges. If you bust, so what, you win in this spot more often than not especially against a villain with those numbers.

I think that you see 77, 99, AK and str8 draws enough here to call. Especially "LAG donk" you could add A8s, K8s, and others. I have seen sets played at this level a few times recently as well. I would call, I think folding is fine as well with so much game left.

there's no doubt that hero is ahead here most of the time. the question that needs answering is which of the following has the highest EV to win 1st:

a) doubling up with 3k ~60-70% of the time
b) losing and left with 200 ~30-40% of the time
c) folding and left with ~1500 chips

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

there's no doubt that hero is ahead here most of the time. the question that needs answering is which of the following has the highest EV to win 1st:

a) doubling up with 3k ~60-70% of the time
b) losing and left with 200 ~30-40% of the time
c) folding and left with ~1500 chips

It is not a question of which option has the highest EV to win 1st. It is a question of what option is most +EV in general.

I guess I could have answered my own question with a bit of ICM, but I thought I'd see what everybody thought first:
- If I fold I have 1430 chips worth 8.4% of the prize pool
- If I call and win I have 3460 chips worth 22.8% of the prize pool
- If I call and lose I have 115 chips worth 1% of the prize pool (but effectively I am dead because ICM overvalues very short stacks IMO).

Therefore I need to be 35% to win to make this a good call. Instacall anybody?

Originally Posted by taipan168

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

there's no doubt that hero is ahead here most of the time. the question that needs answering is which of the following has the highest EV to win 1st:

a) doubling up with 3k ~60-70% of the time
b) losing and left with 200 ~30-40% of the time
c) folding and left with ~1500 chips

It is not a question of which option has the highest EV to win 1st. It is a question of what option is most +EV in general.

I guess I could have answered my own question with a bit of ICM, but I thought I'd see what everybody thought first:
- If I fold I have 1430 chips worth 8.4% of the prize pool
- If I call and win I have 3460 chips worth 22.8% of the prize pool
- If I call and lose I have 115 chips worth 1% of the prize pool (but effectively I am dead because ICM overvalues very short stacks IMO).

Therefore I need to be 35% to win to make this a good call. Instacall anybody?

I say yes.

Yes

Villian did not raise preflop, so you can assume QQ-AA and maybe even JJ are not likely.
He may have 99, A8 or a set, I think I call

Originally Posted by taipan168

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

there's no doubt that hero is ahead here most of the time. the question that needs answering is which of the following has the highest EV to win 1st:

It is not a question of which option has the highest EV to win 1st. It is a question of what option is most +EV in general.

how are the 2 different?

Sorry, I buggered up the ICM calculations. They should be as follows:

- If I fold I have 1430 chips worth 10.7% of the prize pool
- If I call and win I have 3460 chips worth 22.8% of the prize pool
- If I call and lose I have 115 chips worth 1% of the prize pool (but effectively I am dead because ICM overvalues very short stacks IMO).

Therefore I need to be 45% to win to make this a good call.

Don't think it makes a difference to the answer, does it?

Originally Posted by taipan168

Sorry, I buggered up the ICM calculations. They should be as follows:

- If I fold I have 1430 chips worth 10.7% of the prize pool
- If I call and win I have 3460 chips worth 22.8% of the prize pool
- If I call and lose I have 115 chips worth 1% of the prize pool (but effectively I am dead because ICM overvalues very short stacks IMO).

Therefore I need to be 45% to win to make this a good call.

Don't think it makes a difference to the answer, does it?

No, I think you're still good here.

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

Originally Posted by taipan168

Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi

there's no doubt that hero is ahead here most of the time. the question that needs answering is which of the following has the highest EV to win 1st:

It is not a question of which option has the highest EV to win 1st. It is a question of what option is most +EV in general.

how are the 2 different?

We should always play to maximise our expected value of each situation as measured by ICM (in the absence of anything better and with modifications as appropriate). Maximising expected value sometimes means playing for 3rd and sometimes playing for 1st.

In my hand I think there's actually little difference between the two, but meh.