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 Originally Posted by taipan168
Originally Posted by |~|ypermegachi
there's no doubt that hero is ahead here most of the time. the question that needs answering is which of the following has the highest EV to win 1st:
a) doubling up with 3k ~60-70% of the time
b) losing and left with 200 ~30-40% of the time
c) folding and left with ~1500 chips
It is not a question of which option has the highest EV to win 1st. It is a question of what option is most +EV in general.
I guess I could have answered my own question with a bit of ICM, but I thought I'd see what everybody thought first:
- If I fold I have 1430 chips worth 8.4% of the prize pool
- If I call and win I have 3460 chips worth 22.8% of the prize pool
- If I call and lose I have 115 chips worth 1% of the prize pool (but effectively I am dead because ICM overvalues very short stacks IMO).
Therefore I need to be 35% to win to make this a good call. Instacall anybody?
I say yes.
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