Christmas Carnage II

Right so page one, JKDS hints he randed boog wolf. Since boog was indeed wolf, it's reasonable to think that wolves would think a) JKDS had indeed randed boog wolf, and b) that JKDS had higher special equity as a consequence.

hoopy #28 - "BooG's response is pretty aggressive, I didn't think rilla was being serious. "

rascal #29 - "Happy New Year everyone except JKDS. I think he's wolfy and we should just Lynch JKDS to start off the new year right. "

rascal then fake peeks me in response to rilla's vote on me, then attacks gabe for his language when he says we're going to have a mislynch, woops I mean we won't.

gabe #36 - "boog or rilla is a wolf"
rascal #37 - "What makes you say this? It could be v/v. What makes you way it's v/w so confidently? "

drew #40 - "JKDS toning wolfy"

drew #59 - "lynch JKDS; JKDS wolfing hard ong villaging "

Ok so through page one, JKDS is taking heat off me, rascal and drew. boog is taking heat from all the dead villagers and hoopy. smf (gator) turns up late, casts shade on me and jkds.

hoopy looks good, everyone else bad.

That said, from wolf pov, boog is already fucked, so would the other wolf push JKDS, knowing it would look bad later? Or would he seek to get some villager cred for when boog flips?

p2, and hoopy questions why me and rascal are so sure about JKDS. He then votes drew.

lots of rilla vs gabe, not interested in that for obvious reasons.

rascal backs off JKDS, I'll quote this because it's important...

Originally Posted by lilrascal

I like this series of posts.

Rescind

votes drew two posts later, and excuses himself from eod. This puts boog in the lead, and it releases pressure on JKDS when wolves might at least want to force his claim, which they would surely anticipate.

I think rascal looks very good here. If he was seeking village cred, he'd vote boog outright.

Aha boog gives us a list of three...

Originally Posted by BooG690

I've hoopy, SMF and BID somewhere in the middle with all other players leaning villager. Meh.

I'm liking rascal even more now.

Ok that's d1 pretty much done.

This is the JKDS wagon -

JKDS (3) || ong [22], BID [59], boog [122]

rascal jumped off and voted for drew, which is where hoopy's vote was.

d2

hoopy #141 - "Interesting post about BooG. Both gabe and JKDS had him as suspicious which given the flips makes him worth looking at carefully. "

Ok if hoopy's a wolf he's playing the bussing card well.

boog #148 - goes out of his way to explain to both hoopy and rascal why he wouldn't nom gabe

drew #149 needs quoting...

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

I'll be the first to admit that I'm not particularly interested this game. I think it's mainly due to some sort of holiday hangover, idk.

I'm liking ong this game and think we should follow gabe's lead.

lynch rilla

boog looks good to after his #148 post

That looks terrible. This is the second time he's called me a villager while sheeping me onto a bad wagon I started, and he even throws boog v points for a wolfy post.

onto p3

hoopy #153 reminding drew that there's no hurry

most of p3 is me vs rilla, I was wrong.

drew #182 - backs off rilla

drew #213 - votes me

hoopy #221 - votes boog while throwing shade on drew, looks very good.

p4, enter gator

gator#228, #229 - quick to give rilla village cred, quick to dismiss rascal's village cred

gator #233 - begins his read through and quickly isolates drew

rascal #234 - votes boog, once again points out he might not be around eod

gator #241 - puts big heat on boog

gator #243 - more boog heat

gator #245 - votes drew, which is strange given the heat he just dished out to boog. Also points out that hoopy could be bussing boog, this is before boog's flip.

drew #248 - calls me and boog wolves, his vote remains on me despite boog being a wagon on me not.

gator #252 - tells boog he thinks drew is more likely upon review.

boog #254 - responds to questions on his opinion of drew by throwing shade on him. Interesting he hasn't had much to say before.

gator #256 - asks boog why he isn't voting for drew.

boog #258 - votes drew under pressure.

boog #260 - claims angel. At this point boog knows he's fucked, so I think whatever he says from here on can be dismissed as the words of a caught wolf.

gator #261 - encourages boog to rally support for a drew lynch.

hoopy #262 - points out that drew's vote is on me. This is important because drew is capable of negating boog's vote for him by switching to boog.

Anyway, we're at end of day now and boog gets lynched.

d3 has been largely fingers pointed at drew from all angles.

I'll sum up my thoughts in a different post so it's not obscured by this wall.

Ok so drew is clearly today's lynch. He's easily the least villagery.

I'm near certain that hoopy and rascal are villagers, so if somehow it's not drew, then it has to be gator. it must be said, gator does seem very town toned, but I had him as nailed town last game and was wrong. We all know how good gator is and he can be wolfing here.

drew >>>>>>>> gator >>> rascal/hoopy

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Ok so drew is clearly today's lynch. He's easily the least villagery.

I'm near certain that hoopy and rascal are villagers, so if somehow it's not drew, then it has to be gator. it must be said, gator does seem very town toned, but I had him as nailed town last game and was wrong. We all know how good gator is and he can be wolfing here.

drew >>>>>>>> gator >>> rascal/hoopy

the ONLY thing I disagree with is having rascal in there. If he is a wolf this game he is better than I am.

Originally Posted by GatorJH

the ONLY thing I disagree with is having rascal in there. If he is a wolf this game he is better than I am.

I'm not intending to imply rascal is a wolf, I'm saying him and hoopy are villagers, and it's either you or drew, very probably drew.

I agree, rascal isn't a wolf. It's drew. Note that he waited for me to read through and post my thoughts before deciding whether to swing for me or not.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

It's drew. Note that he waited for me to read through and post my thoughts before deciding whether to swing for me or not.

Derp

solid strat imo

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Ok so drew is clearly today's lynch. He's easily the least villagery.

I'm near certain that hoopy and rascal are villagers, so if somehow it's not drew, then it has to be gator. it must be said, gator does seem very town toned, but I had him as nailed town last game and was wrong. We all know how good gator is and he can be wolfing here.

drew >>>>>>>> gator >>> rascal/hoopy

Based on this alone I should have nommed you.

lynch drew

rescind
lynch ong

It's boog and ong. You heard it here first. Twice.

@gator: Yeah, I am suddenly interested in this game and have more free time at the same time. However, this can't be role indicative because I was on the chopping block on D2 and did fuck all.

Ong is the last wolf, mainly because I want to stick to my guns and bink both wolves this game. I apologize for attacking you recently but I think that was mostly emotional.

My ong strat this game:

1) don't get modkilled by fucking up like you usually do by slipping somehow
2) wait as long as possible before giving your "ong soul read". I hope you remember but probably won't, that the topic of my read on ong always comes up before D3. This time, it hasn't. It's because ong wants to avoid me doing a quick peek at his posts. Once, ong mentioned I have sick reads on him but never bothered to inquire what those reads were or why this game. This is a first.
3) Read the squabble between rilla and ong again.

Also, wtf is this shit?

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I can't see an angel protecting me. Furthermore, if boog is a wolf, what does he think happens here by claiming? We lynch drew.

Which implies drew is a villager.

Kill ong and this game is over. If he's a villager, I truly give up and officially relinquish my "soulreading ong" title.

drew why didn't you vote for me earlier? Why did you wait for me to read through? What would you have done had I voted gator?

Originally Posted by OngBonga

drew why didn't you vote for me earlier? Why did you wait for me to read through? What would you have done had I voted gator?

1) Waited for my read to solidify
2) Because it shows your true colors more accurately I think
3) No idea

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

3) No idea

This shows your true colours accurately I think.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

This shows your true colours accurately I think.

I hope it shows that I'm being honest.

If I was a wolf, I'd make some shit up.

Ong wants to kill me because of the argument about who's stats were better for 2014-2015 (turned out to be mine btw).

Haha sweeeet.

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

Ong wants to kill me because of the argument about who's stats were better for 2014-2015 (turned out to be mine btw).

Looks like 2016 gonna be better for me.

You waited to see who I'd go for today.

I don't care drew, you're getting lynched, not me, and there won't be a tomorrow.

Enjoy throwing shit at me.

The red flag for me with drew is that he stated that ong and boog were wolves. But with the boog wagon gaining ground he stayed put on ong until the eod. Yesterday really reads like we had 2 wolf wagons and they didn't know what to do about it.

rascal looks ok to me for rescinding JKDS late on day 1 which put BooG in danger. I need to reread his day 2.

ong is a villager based on his tone, detective work and argument with rilla.

Gator is the wildcard.

Originally Posted by Hoopy

The red flag for me with drew is that he stated that ong and boog were wolves. But with the boog wagon gaining ground he stayed put on ong until the eod.

Imagine this:

I'm a villager and I think both ong and boog are wolves. Either:

1) ong is a villager and I guessed wrong about ong but was 50% correct overall
2) ong is a wolf and I was correct 100% overall

Originally Posted by BankItDrew

Imagine this:

I'm a villager and I think both ong and boog are wolves. Either:

1) ong is a villager and I guessed wrong about ong but was 50% correct overall
2) ong is a wolf and I was correct 100% overall

The point that hoopy is making, which is obvious, is that if you think me and boog are wolves, then you should vote for the one more likely to get lynched.

The fact is, you threw shade on us both, voted for me, then did very little, which allowed you to avoid voting for the wolf. My wagon yesterday had one vote on it... yours. This meant you could have shifted your vote to boog if you get into trouble. Your voting yesterday was strategic. Villagers don't make strategic votes, they just try to lynch wolves.

You sat back and parked on me while boog, a wolf read of yours, was getting heat. That's telling.

This was the other one that should have been included with the above.

Originally Posted by Hoopy

The red flag for me with drew is that he stated that ong and boog were wolves. But with the boog wagon gaining ground he stayed put on ong until the eod. Yesterday really reads like we had 2 wolf wagons and they didn't know what to do about it.

rascal looks ok to me for rescinding JKDS late on day 1 which put BooG in danger. I need to reread his day 2.

ong is a villager based on his tone, detective work and argument with rilla.

Gator is the wildcard.

I think drew is the best lynch by far today. Plenty of time left though, I'd like to have some more thoughts from rascal.

Off to bed.

Originally Posted by Hoopy

I think drew is the best lynch by far today. Plenty of time left though, I'd like to have some more thoughts from rascal.

Off to bed.

I don't have a whole lot of thougths. For reasons others have stated, I think BID is most likely the wolf. If by chance it's not BID, then gator would be next in my POE.

Based on voting analysis, I don't think it's Hoopy and based on this day's posting, I don't think it's Ong.

I'll hold off on hammering just in case someone wants to discuss things more, but I'm ready to vote for BID.

Greetings again.

It's time for



Player (votes) || Voter [post in which they voted]

BID (2) || Gator [308], ong [316]
ong (1) || BID [318]

no vote (2) || Hoopy, rascal


D3 ends at 10:00 PM GMT on Sunday, January 10 at 10:00 PM GMT.

I don't see me voting anyone other than BID today and it doesn't look like anyone wants to talk, so I'll hammer it in about an hour unless someone wants to talk thru things.

Lynch BID

ARRRROOOOOOOOO

Fuck you, ong. GG

LOL.

GG all.

Since this started in 2015, does it go for 2015 stats or 2016?

Originally Posted by lilrascal

Since this started in 2015, does it go for 2015 stats or 2016?

Depends if it tips the balance for 2015 or not.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Depends if it tips the balance for 2015 or not.

I think it puts me ahead of Boog.

Originally Posted by lilrascal

I think it puts me ahead of Boog.

I only care about me vs drew. I have a problem with him having bragging rights.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I only care about me vs drew. I have a problem with him having bragging rights.

It definitely helps you there.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Depends if it tips the balance for 2015 or not.

it doesn't for me. I am still at 100%.

And yes, it would put you ahead of drew.

Originally Posted by lilrascal

And yes, it would put you ahead of drew.

Thanks for checking, I'm too lazy.

In which case it's when the game starts.

SuckItDrew.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Thanks for checking, I'm too lazy.

In which case it's when the game starts.

SuckItDrew.

GG all and thanks for modding mmm.

Originally Posted by GatorJH

GG all and thanks for modding mmm.

This ^^^^

I'm actually a villager.

Wait for MMM for the flip imo

Guys, guys, guys.

maj counts as EOD.
The first rule of EOD is STFU at EOD.

Anyhoo.

It looks like BID is gonna be real dead right about nowish.

BID is so good at all the games.

I found this vid. of BID's flip:

Yep, BID is a goner.

BID's role PM said he was a Vanilla Villager.

Spoiler: Show

I wouldn't ever deceive BID - not in such a respectable game.

Oh, man, looks like LYLO on D4 in ~27.5 hours.

Hey Hoopy,



Oh noooooes!

Found this vid of the Hoopman flipping his hoodie up



Hoopman is hardcore.


Oh, by the way,
Hoopy's PM said he was a Vanilla Villager.

Spoiler: Show

'cause he was a Vanilla Villager

Greetings again.

It's time for the final showdown,
a final match of wits do determine who will live and who will die.

It is LYLO on D4, just what I asked for for Robot Christmas.

I am so robot excited to witness how you all perform.

Thread is open.


EOD is maj @ 2 votes

The players:
Gator
rascal
ong

If I am not around at maj, please stop posting while I have a chance to catch up.

Rascal, if you are the final wolf then gg. If not I am not sure I will be able to convince you that Ong is the final wolf so it is highly likely he will win.

I will look through the thread to see if I can find any nuggets, but he too has played a pretty good game and I still can't get my head wrapped around the final wolf not being one of BID or Hoopy.

I'm here. I'm not the wolf.

I mean it's very probably gator. He's already made his mind up. I guess I have too, but I at least intend to read through again with an open mind. rascal is a very good wolf and I'm keeping that in mind.

That said, this is obviously an easy win for rascal if he's wolf, so it might be better if me and gator just mutually vote. Then I don't have to have to be paranoid about rascal.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'm here. I'm not the wolf.

I mean it's very probably gator. He's already made his mind up. I guess I have too, but I at least intend to read through again with an open mind. rascal is a very good wolf and I'm keeping that in mind.

That said, this is obviously an easy win for rascal if he's wolf, so it might be better if me and gator just mutually vote. Then I don't have to have to be paranoid about rascal.

The problem with that model is it gives Rascal the win if he is the last wolf.

Before I vote I am going to look through the thread one more time and put in reasons why each of you could or could not be the final wolf.

lol gator

I hint that I'm keeping an open mind with rascal, and you imply you're doing the same, having implied otherwise in your opening post.

Let's face facts. If rascal is the wolf, he's won. On that basis, I can't be bothered to read through again, just to hand rascal the win he was always getting. I'd rather him win quickly if that's how it's gonna be, and if not, I can read through knowing you're the wolf.

That seems to me a more efficient means of using my time.

I'm not gonna vote until rascal is here. But I'll likely force your hand before I read through, which will be tomorrow.

I haven't had a chance to reread, but I'll get to it. Looking at vote counts, both of you look wolfy.

Ong, the only time you voted for a wolf was against Boog (which was the hammer), but Boog was getting lynched either way, so I don't give you any village credit for that.

Gator, the only player you've voted was BID on both D2 and D3. No villa points there either.

I'll go back and reread, but share your thoughts so we can solve this.

Originally Posted by lilrascal

Ong, the only time you voted for a wolf was against Boog (which was the hammer), but Boog was getting lynched either way, so I don't give you any village credit for that.

Yeah my voting has been abysmal this game. But I'll say this... I'm very good at getting village cred for bussing wolf bros. If I know boog is a wolf, I'm not waiting around until he howls before jumping on board.

Ask yourself why you're alive rascal. Wouldn't this be much easier for me as wolf if it were hoopy and gator? How about gator? Does he get a lynch from anywhere else? You've been suspicious of me through most of the game. Furthermore, I'm prepared to face off with gator. That's because I know I'm not the wolf. Would I relish the idea of taking on gator with you making the deciding vote if I was the wolf?

I know my voting makes me look bad. That's why I'm still here.

I got impatient. Thoughts on gator...

Originally Posted by GatorJH

Don't put too much stock in this. I have made this move (I believe as recently as last game) as a wolf. It is an awesome move to make when none of the wagons are on a wolf.

This is gator's sencond post. Immediately casting doubt on village reads.

gator reads smf as null, which is odd.

Originally Posted by GatorJH

Hoopy's recent posts look a bit better especially if one of BID or Boog is a wolf.

Right now I have the following:

Strong villager leans
Rascal, Ong and somewhat rilla

Average to null villager leans
Hoopy

Strongest wolf leans
BID and Boog

With all of that though I think I like a lynch BID right now more than boog because I think a boog lynch seems to be too easy for both villagers and wolves to be on. I would rather see who votes for BID and who doesn't.

FWIW, the way things have played out so far I could also see wolf hoopy throwing wolf buddy Boog under the bus to gain some villager cred.

Casts shade on boog, but votes drew.

Originally Posted by GatorJH

I went back and you did mention that you thought JKDS was villager so your vote on gabe seems more null than anything.

FWIW after the full review I think it is more likely that BID is a wolf than you are.

What do you think of BID?

Gives boog some breathing space.

gator asks boog what he thinks of drew, boog replies, gator asks why he's not voting for drew, boog votes for drew.

half an hour later, boog claims angel. This now is clearly an effort to get drew lynched instead. Note that I called bullshit on boog rather than pushing for drew. Why, as wolf, would I spend the game defending boog, then turn on him when he claims? That doesn't make sense. Note that gator remained parked on drew, while I backed off.

Originally Posted by GatorJH

Personally I think this post made him change his stance. He knew that the angel role wouldn't be viable long term and didn't think it through until you pointed this out.

gator using my post to impress the idea that drew can still be wolfing with boog...

Originally Posted by GatorJH

In other words I still think there is a pretty good chance BID is the other wolf.

Originally Posted by GatorJH

BID has to be the lynch today. Him being the other wolf is the only reason for Boog to back off the angel claim.

Originally Posted by GatorJH

basically BID has given up on trying and is just flopping around. There is no way he should live through the day. If, for some very odd reason, he isn't the last wolf we deal with that tomorrow.

Note here that gator is reluctant to consider who could be the wolf if it's not drew. Keeping options open, rather than committing himself.

That brings up to today.

There's many reasons why gator is wolfy here.

I'll read through rascal's posts now.

Originally Posted by lilrascal

Happy New Year everyone except JKDS.

I think he's wolfy and we should just Lynch JKDS to start off the new year right.

This after JKDS hinted he randed boog wolf. This is villagery to me, I think the wolf would realise that attacking JKDS is defending boog and will look awful later. This is in line with my d1 thinking.

Originally Posted by lilrascal

What makes you say this?

It could be v/v. What makes you way it's v/w so confidently?

Again, this kinda looks good for the same reason. Defending boog so openly when wolves would be worried he's already fucked.

Originally Posted by lilrascal

JKDS appears very wolfy to me. He jumped on the boog wagon fairly quickly and really isn't adding anything to make me think he's a villager. And his comment about me going for the lynch JKDS every game merit badge is just so wrong. I incorrectly defended him a game not long ago when he got lynched as a wolf because I didn't see a case against him.

More of the same. Strong chainsaw defence.

rascal backs off JKDS when his wagon is in full steam, moves to drew. Kinda null in retrospect I guess.

Originally Posted by lilrascal

Lynch boog

Unfortunately IRL has limited my time for this game, but I find myself agreeing with Hoopy a lot here. I'm still suspicious a bit about Ong, but that may be just because it's Ong.

BTW, phone posting sucks. I don't know if I'll be around for EOD, but I'll do my best.

This nails it for me. This is d2, JKDS has flipped and the wolves will be mighty relieved to see JKDS wasn't a special, JKDS' flip takes quite a lot of heat off boog, at least initially. rascal has spent d1 defending boog when it would make more sense not to, and then d2 he busses him when there's less pressure? That's never wolf-wolf interaction.

Originally Posted by lilrascal

I don't have a whole lot of thougths. For reasons others have stated, I think BID is most likely the wolf. If by chance it's not BID, then gator would be next in my POE.

Based on voting analysis, I don't think it's Hoopy and based on this day's posting, I don't think it's Ong.

I'll hold off on hammering just in case someone wants to discuss things more, but I'm ready to vote for BID.

Does what I did and gator didn't. Named a next most likely suspect in the event drew was villager.

And then hammer's drew.

Yeah I'm set. If rascal's a wolf he's played perfectly. I think gator said somewhere for rascal to be a wolf, he's better than gator himself. He'd be right.

I'll wait for both of you to respond but it's clear where my vote is going.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'll wait for both of you to respond but it's clear where my vote is going.

That's not good for the village then. I am going to look at Rascal right now, but it isn't looking good for the village. If he really is the last wolf you will have to get out of your tinfoil mode which, tbh, is your Achilles heal.

Originally Posted by GatorJH

That's not good for the village then.

What you should be thinking as villager is "I hope you're the wolf then".

I'm willing to hear your thoughts on rascal, obviously. But I doubt very much you'll sell him to me.

Originally Posted by GatorJH

That's not good for the village then.

I'm still really uncomfortable with this. This implies you have me as villager before you read through rascal.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'm still really uncomfortable with this. This implies you have me as villager before you read through rascal.

To be completely honest I kind of did. Hoopy's death last night just didn't make sense to me which turned my focus from you to Rascal.

Give me 5-10. I am almost through.

Day 1

Boog gets three quick votes then jumps in with a JKDS lynch and then moves to Rilla. Rascal jumps in with a JKDS vote with this post:

Originally Posted by lilrascal

Happy New Year everyone except JKDS.

I think he's wolfy and we should just Lynch JKDS to start off the new year right.

At that point, with the exception of one post JKDS had been pretty flippant.

He then follows with this post which I find interesting because he has played here enough to know that people don't generally fake peek here. Why did he feel the need then to do that? Probably null but at least worth pointing out.

In his next post he defends his JKDS vote, but provides no other thoughts then again in his next post.

At this point both Gabe and Ong start defending JKDS. MMM posts a vote count that has JKDS at 3 and Boog at 2 with approx. 4 hours left.

Originally Posted by lilrascal

No, I'm not in favor of a ongbonga lynch.

If I'm seer I peeked him villa, otherwise, I'm just finding him villagery.

Now we get to the entire reason why everyone thinks Rascal is villager. With approx 3 hours left in the day he quotes three of JKDS' posts and does this:

Originally Posted by lilrascal

I like this series of posts.

Rescind

He doesn't vote for anyone else but his rescind puts Boog in the lead because he got to two votes before JKDS did. It is worth noting that at this point Boog's vote is on Rilla.

He then makes these three posts in order:

Originally Posted by lilrascal

But, it I'm wrong about liking JKDS more recent posts and he does turn out to be a wolf, then Hoopy could very well be his partner.

Originally Posted by lilrascal

I'm not feeling great about Gabe's posts atm, but I'm not wanting to lynch him for them today.

Originally Posted by lilrascal

Lynch BID

I think's a better lynch candidate for today.

This gives BID two votes.

Boog then makes this post.......

Originally Posted by BooG690

Rescind rilla

Rilla sounds reasonable in his last few posts. gabe has not helped his case and is sounding wolfier with every post. It's pretty easy to hide behind the "I'm not allowed to speak about what I'm thinking" argument and gabe is laying that argument on thick. Lynch gabe

I've hoopy, SMF and BID somewhere in the middle with all other players leaning villager. Meh.

...which gives Gabe two votes.

Both of these put Gabe, Boog, JKDS and BID all on two votes.

Boog then flies in with this vote to put JKDS at three.

Originally Posted by BooG690

Rescind gabe, lynch JKDS

He then follows with this post.

Originally Posted by BooG690

It's hard to argue my case when you haven't really made a case against me. I still like a gabe lynch, fwiw.

Day 1 ends with JKDS being lynched.

Here is what I think may have happened. They knew that moving off of Boog would give Rascal villager cred, but wasn't that dangerous because Boog could sort of control who got a third vote. They then split up between BID and Gabe to see if one of those two or JKDS picked up a third vote. When that didn't happen Boog flipped back to JKDS to save himself.

Day 2
Boog spends the first half defending himself and trying to make Seer Gabe look wolfy to justify his suspicion.

Rascal posts his vote chart then makes the following post:

Originally Posted by lilrascal

I don't think gabe was NK'd because the wolves thought he peeked rilla wolf, especially when gabe only voted for boog in #13 and never changed his vote. I think they killed him because of his defense of JKDS.

Looking at it now it is very plausible that the wolves knew JKDS was seer and had potentially looked up Boog. Notice though that Rascal doesn't consider that Gabe was killed because of his suspicion of Boog even though Gabe mentioned Boog as a wolf even though there were SIX posts where Gabe mentioned Boog was a wolf.

He then makes this post suspecting Ong.

Originally Posted by lilrascal

Wat? I can't even follow this argument. You eliminated someone from the seer pool? This makes no sense from a villa perspective.

Ong and Drew then pick up one vote while Boog picks up two and Boog was getting the most heat by far.

Rascal then makes this post:

Originally Posted by lilrascal

Lynch boog

Unfortunately IRL has limited my time for this game, but I find myself agreeing with Hoopy a lot here. I'm still suspicious a bit about Ong, but that may be just because it's Ong.

BTW, phone posting sucks. I don't know if I'll be around for EOD, but I'll do my best.

This just seems to be COMPLETELY out of the blue to me.

I then came in and made it two for BID, which on the surface looks bad for me but I will explain that in another post.

Btw, Boog has not voted at this point. I ask him why he hasn't voted for BID and then he does, but the vote is meaningless unless BID gets a fourth vote and there is less than 2 hours left in the day.

Boog then outs as the angel with Rilla, Hoopy and Rascal voting for him. Hoopy makes a couple of posts but doesn't rescind. Ong pokes holes in his theory but then rescinds and puts BID in the lead. Hoopy then, out of nowhere, recants his story and rescinds BID putting himself back in the lead. This makes no sense unless he wanted everyone to think BID was his wolf buddy.

Ong then puts his vote back on Boog to seal the deal.

Day 3

Rascal opens with his chart then makes this post:

Originally Posted by lilrascal

The only way BID is the other wolf is if we had w/w wagons yesterday. Which would be awesome and may be possible based on who BID's voted this game (gabe and JKDS on D1, rilla and Ong on D2).

Fortunately, today will be an extended day and I'll get a chance to look at things more closely on the weekend.

He then quoted a couple of my posts with these two about BID/Hoopy:

Originally Posted by lilrascal

IDK. It was 3/2 Boog/BID when he rescinded. Boog rescinding had no outcome on the results.

...and this one when I pointed out that Boog was worried about another rescind...

Originally Posted by lilrascal

Possibly, but there was only 16 minutes until EOD and it didn't look like there was going to be much movement.

...but that isn't true. There were at least 3-4 people online at EOD so another rescind was entirely possible.

It's almost like he wants to look soft on villager Drew.

He then makes this post....

Originally Posted by lilrascal

I don't have a whole lot of thougths. For reasons others have stated, I think BID is most likely the wolf. If by chance it's not BID, then gator would be next in my POE.

Based on voting analysis, I don't think it's Hoopy and based on this day's posting, I don't think it's Ong.

I'll hold off on hammering just in case someone wants to discuss things more, but I'm ready to vote for BID.

He then votes for BID and we all thought game over.

Now, for my final thoughts. If Rascal is a villager why was hoopy nommed instead of him when both you and I had him as a LOCK villager. Wouldn't both of us, as a wolf, want to get to the last day with Hoopy instead of Rascal? I think Hoopy was nommed because he never had Rascal as lock villager as we did. Now Rascal is just sitting back waiting for one of us to vote the other so he can swoop in for the win.

And finally, you and I have been putting a ton of analysis in while he has basically just sat back and rested on that rescind making him look villager. However, when you REALLY look at how things played out it wasn't that balsy of a move for a wolf to make.

I don't think you are the final wolf. I think it is Rascal.

PS - I didn't re-read the above so excuse any clerical errors. I am just trying to get his posted before I have to get some work done.

"Looking at it now it is very plausible that the wolves knew JKDS was seer"

This was supposed to say Gabe.

I don't think you are the final wolf. I think it is Rascal.

Well I gotta admit I didn't expect this. I figured that your only hope as wolf is to sell me to rascal. I know I've played badly enough that it wouldn't be difficult to build a case on me.

Gonna mull this over while we wait for rascal.

Wouldn't both of us, as a wolf, want to get to the last day with Hoopy instead of Rascal?

Hoopy and me were mutually reading each other as near locks. I don't think hoopy-ong is better for you from a wolf pov than rascal-ong. You at least know that rascal is not sure enough of me that he might vote for me. Hell, it makes sense actually for you to swing for rascal here instead of me, because you might convince me, and rascal still might vote for me.

I'm still leaning in your direction here gator.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

Hoopy and me were mutually reading each other as near locks. I don't think hoopy-ong is better for you from a wolf pov than rascal-ong. You at least know that rascal is not sure enough of me that he might vote for me. Hell, it makes sense actually for you to swing for rascal here instead of me, because you might convince me, and rascal still might vote for me.

If this is true then why Hoopy and not you? IIRC you had been more vocal about me being next than Hoopy.

Originally Posted by Hoopy

I think drew is the best lynch by far today. Plenty of time left though, I'd like to have some more thoughts from rascal.

Off to bed.

Two more posts that make more sense for me to nom you instead of Hoopy. He would have, at least, been willing to look at Rascal.

And finally, you and I have been putting a ton of analysis in while he has basically just sat back and rested on that rescind making him look villager. However, when you REALLY look at how things played out it wasn't that balsy of a move for a wolf to make.

This though does give me pause for thought.

I can see rascal being a wolf here. But more often than you? That's what matters.

If I were a wolf and didn't nom Rascal then you would have been a much better choice for me than Hoopy. If you look at that openly you will see it. Nomming hoopy would have been FPS and I am too good of a wolf for that, especially at this point in the game. I would have nommed either you or Rascal. Hoopy doesn't make sense if I am a wolf OR if you are a wolf. It only makes sense if Rascal is a wolf.

I fucking hate final three.

I'm waiting for rascal. I want him to respond to you.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

I'm waiting for rascal. I want him to respond to you.

That's fair and solidifies my thought that you are a villager.

I'm checking in at lunch. I've made it halfway thru my reread. Based on that I'm leaning Ong for the last wolf. Then I see the above posts by gator and I'm not so sure about Ong anymore.

I'll finish my reread after work and will be online this evening. Whichever one of you is the villager, please start posting villagery. I feel like I'm in an f3 with two wolves.

Originally Posted by lilrascal

I'm checking in at lunch. I've made it halfway thru my reread. Based on that I'm leaning Ong for the last wolf. Then I see the above posts by gator and I'm not so sure about Ong anymore.

I'll finish my reread after work and will be online this evening. Whichever one of you is the villager, please start posting villagery. I feel like I'm in an f3 with two wolves.

I am very interested in seeing your notes on both Ong and me.

What about either of our posts today do you find wolfish?

Originally Posted by GatorJH

I am very interested in seeing your notes on both Ong and me.

What about either of our posts today do you find wolfish?

Based on today's posts I find Ong to be more villagery than you. Ong's posts from the first two days sound very wolfy, but his earlier posts today seem ok. I still need to finish catching up though.

Your post above about me is what had me rethinking it all. You seem to be FPSing here and that gives me some concerns that I might be wrong about Ong.

Rascal,
If I am a wolf why would I spend so much energy trying to convince Ong that you are a wolf when it would be much easier to convince you of him?