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This may be for naught as the NK could ease our pain in a couple hours but the protect has a very high probability of working and I won't be as available tomorrow to research as today. So, here's Dhuber's first game day/night plus a couple of our responses to him. It's hard researching him since ppl tend to have their own version of how to spell his name. Anyway...
#70: Pops V on MoMo & Ong right away...
 Originally Posted by dhubermex
My third game and I've finally rolled vanilla. I believe MMM is a village lean. I'm also leaning villager on Ong and have no reads on the others who have posted so far, so I guess I have nothing useful to contribute at this time.
#86: Pops Luco as V (correctly). Hits me for inactivity...
 Originally Posted by dhubermex
I'm slightly suspicious of Luco because everything his posts are SO village-like, but can't bring myself to nominate him because of how valuable he is for the town (he wouldn't get a wagon anyway for that reason). I'm going to nominate one of the inactives, so... lynch Keybored
#133: Agrees with Ong on voting inactives, rescinds, likes the D1 extension, gives Baud a V lean (incorrectly)...
 Originally Posted by dhubermex
Sure. My post was just a reference to the fact that this is the first WW match where I am neither or Wolf or a Special... with no particular reference to the stipulations of this particular match where there are only WWs and VVs. As Ong pointed out, lynching inactive is not +EV for village so I am going to rescind that vote.
Rescind Keybored
Extending Day 1 to Tuesday is good news for Village imo (as baudib alluded to). I believe he is Village lean. There could be a wagon for me coming up, but I am definitely Villager, so am trying to concéntrate on finding someone who I have at least some read on who is a Wolf. I do not really have a read on that yet.
#134: Baudib's infamous WIFOM defense to Dhuber.
#166: Leans Baud as V (incorrectly) but likes Keith for W over Ong, votes Keith (incorrectly)...
 Originally Posted by dhubermex
This is my thinking as well (except the fact that I'm a Villager). However, I'm no longer suspicious of baudib but am more intrigued by the Keith/Ong back-and-forth. I think there's def a solid wolf to sniff (as you say) between those two, and I'm leaning towards Keith at this moment, so I'll go with that read.
Lynch Keith
#168: Still likes Keith as W (incorrectly), likes Ong better now...
 Originally Posted by dhubermex
Regarding the Keith/Ong posts, it would be sick if they're both wolves. They both obv have ample skill to pull this off, but I don't know if Ong would employ this strategy early game. I'm also remembering the Ong/Wuf disputes back when Wuf was Turncoat in my first match when I rolled Wolf, and how Wuf had me super-convinced Ong was off in his reads although he wasn't. If Ong has a solid-enough read to lynch, then I'm on that wagon for now.
#172: Still likes Keith as W and loving on Ong some more...
 Originally Posted by dhubermex
Wholeheartedly agree with this. Although he's also too good to let hanging around if he rolled Wolf, random chances are he's village and is needed itt. I'm getting a Village vibe from him atm. Keith is a far superior player than I am (you all are, actually), and the fact that I'm a bit suspicious won't--and shouldn't-- hold any weight. I do like Ong's read though and that is what I'm going on for the most part.
#195: Drew gives Dhuber semi-strong V lean...
 Originally Posted by BankItDrew
After reading wufs posts eight times, I think I have a good feel for this game. Strategy though - not so much.
DhuberI'm a sucker for players who say things like "omg first time i'm a villager" in their opening. I understand this seems to be the norm for him but I don't think he has the balls to pull it off again, especially after getting wtfpwnd last game. Semi-strong villager lean.
Ong - I'm on the fence with ong (I wrote this after his first few posts). I'm currently placing ong on the wolf side of the fence (I wrote this after reading his last few posts). I have a very good read on him imo (I nailed his role the last couple of games early). On one hand, his exchange with baudib early seemed like a sincere villager, but his language is slightly different than villager ong.
BID - Boring villager. I truly love being a wolf waaaaaaay more than anything else.
HoopsThat endgame comment seems personal. I may have made two mistakes a year ago but come on, give me a friggen break already. Also, if you think my endgame sucks, why would you think me being a powerful angel would be a good thing for the village?
I think lynching a player who is fairly inactive and of above average skill level would be best in this game. Hoopy gets a wolfy lean for bad village strat.
Keybored This is so bad. Your reasons are so so bad. Keybored gets a wolf lean for bad village strat.
lynch ong
I'd like to test out my Day 1 soul read. At the very least, he'd make a great dead thread angel.
#199: Sees problem with Ong-Baud action, switches off Keith very late in the day (correctly)...
 Originally Posted by dhubermex
The Ong jump onto baudib wagon is highly suspicious imo, and is prompting me to change my initial read. I think baudib is a likely Day 1 lynch (besides myself) and this decision could cost my own neck but I think there's something to read in Ong's post (and its timing) to lynch someone who could very likely go early. Therefore...
Rescind Keith / Lynch Ong
#272: END OF D1 (BAUD LYNCHED) . . .
 Originally Posted by wufwugy
jkds - ong
luco - keith
mmm - baud
rilla - keith
key - jkds
keith - bid
gabe - baud
dhubs - ong
bid - ong
baud - ong
ong - baud
daven - baud
hoopy - nobody
ong - 4
keith - 2
baud - 4 (lead)
jkds - 1
bid - 1
#288: Admits wrong lynch, sez he'll review but never does...
 Originally Posted by dhubermex
lol so much for my read that baudib was a village lean. Just goes to show I have so much to learn still. Time to go back through baud's posts and see what I can come up with.
#300: Starts getting down on himself...
 Originally Posted by dhubermex
RE: JKDS' "I suck at WW now." I feel the same way... not that I was ever good to begin with. 
#322: Ong reads Dhuber voting as wolfy, puts him in top 3...
 Originally Posted by OngBonga
Here's where I'm at
MMM - feels like a villager
Dhuber - fence sitting with myself and keith while giving baudib cover... wolfy.
BID - drew feels more thoughtful here and I'm not sure if that means he's a wolf trying to not fuck up or a villager trying to shake off his lvp rep. I can usually read drew's motives but I'm struggling here.
Hoops - strong villager lean for lurking as baudib died, he could've lynched me but didn't. He's not as conf as keith simply because hoopy would have a harder time explaining a late switch to me.
Keybored - another who was lurking at deadline and could've saved baudib by killing me, so another villager lean. Again would have a harder time explaining himself so he's not conf territory.
doober rilla jkds my top three picks
#333: End of N1 (Keith Killed) -- Start D2 . . .
DAY 1 summary of Dhuber: Starts game off spouting I'm a Villager! Likes MoMo/Ong in first post. Then totally, totally missed the Baudib death spiral going on all around him and becomes a Keith hater, but votes to lynch Ong last minute after loving him all day. Says at night he'll review but never gets that invested and already starts to doubt his own abilities. Looking back at him, from just this D1/N1 action, I think the kid has "much to learn", to use his own words.
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