*** Werewolves and Vampires II: Gameplay Thread ***

[crazzvette]

She's not helping, is linked to other players, etc, etc

Plus, we must rid this town of all the wimenz.

Why is it that he wants all the women out of the village ? First shotglass then chelle , i never wanted eighter one out or gone less alone dead , and now everyone is thinking of me . I do have to admit it's a fun and interesting game , and mostly built on speculations and a guessing game . I can't speak for people here because i'm new and this is my first game . To say that i'm a villager looks like it won't be enough and to think how or why would someone set me up for the fall for chelle is beyond me . Gonna read more into these last posts and see what or who is playing me . Still confused as usual thou .

[wufwugy]

Forgot to mention that Day 5 ends at 3PM Monday

[GatorJH]

Here's a question. Do we try to find and lynch the last vampire right now or focus on the wolves? If we lynch the last vampire the village only loses a person every other night (Wuf doesn't say anything about one group getting nightly kills if the other group dies out), but on the other hand if we focus on finding either the wolf or turncoat there is a probability that one team hits the other team.

Since we have all weekend I thought it would be best to discuss the options because I really think Crazyv is the last vampire but am not sure if it makes sense to lynch her today.

Thoughts?

[OngBonga]

Personally I think the vamp was werewolf hunting.

Or vig hunting. Chelle was on my shortlist of potential vig's after she tried to lynch a dead jyms. Figured it might be an attempt to distance herself from the shot.

Thinking more about stacks' late flip last night... he knows doing that is going to get himself shot, so why did he do it? Either...
1. he knew shotty was special,
or 2. boog is the wolf and he was protecting both himself and boog from the flip.

As much as I think boog's lack of outing last night suggests strongly he's a villager, boog will also know that a fake outing is not going to keep him alive for long, so maybe better to sit back and wait, especially if he thinks stacks is his turncoat and will throw a late flip in to kill of shotty.

I really don't know about boog. There's evidence for him being wolf and villager. Tough spot.

The chelle nom points strongly at crazvette for me. Maybe someone like gator is smart enough to know this is what some people will think. Either noob wolf, or smart wolf trying to look like a noob.

Gonna have a read through day three once I've eaten.

[GatorJH]

As much as I think boog's lack of outing last night suggests strongly he's a villager, boog will also know that a fake outing is not going to keep him alive for long, so maybe better to sit back and wait, especially if he thinks stacks is his turncoat and will throw a late flip in to kill of shotty.

I really don't know about boog. There's evidence for him being wolf and villager. Tough spot.

I definitely agree here. I will have to re-read things but vaguely remember seeing Stacks go pretty hard at Boog at one time (I think around page 8 or 9) and couldn't see him doing that as the turncoat.

[OngBonga]

That's a good point about noms. If we kill the last wolf, and the vamps only get a nom every other night, this is clearly optimal. But if the vamps will nom every night, then much better to leave one from each team if possible.

[wufwugy]

If one baddy team fully dies, the other will take over nightly kills. I thought I specified this somewhere, but couldn't find it either. Also living turncoats take over their team kills if they're the last one left. Basically, as long as a baddy remains, a nightly kill remains

[GatorJH]

If one baddy team fully dies, the other will take over nightly kills. I thought I specified this somewhere, but couldn't find it either. Also living turncoats take over their team kills if they're the last one left. Basically, as long as a baddy remains, a nightly kill remains

wassup with the mid game rule changes?

(I was actually surprised that wasn't spelled out as it is usually how it works).

There may still be some value in killing off the last wolf if we can figure that out as we could rule out team hunting in the nightly noms (and there is a slight chance the vamp hits the turncoat).

On the other hand team hunting may help the village as the wolf may have a better shot at hitting the vamp or turncoat than just the vamp hitting the turncoat.

[wufwugy]

Also the turncoat no longer counts as a villager. I didn't think that one through; it doesn't make sense if the game is down to something like 2 villagers, 1 vampire, and 1 turncoat vampire because at best the lynch on that day will just be a flip, and that's no way to end a game. So in that situation the vampires will win the game.

[wufwugy]

IIRC when Rilla did the turncoat role he said they count as villagers, and since he knows what he's doing I just rolled with that. But getting down to the nitty gritty, turncoats have to count as baddies if you want the final day to be something other than a silly flip

[NightGizmo]

I took today off from work and I haven't been around my computer at all until now (recovering from some drinking last night), and I have to run to dinner soon. I'm caught up reading the thread, and my first impressions are:

JKDS -- is this a preemptive fake-outing? He had to realize that he's going to be the most likely lynch today after being so quiet all game and then changing his vote last minute yesterday.

We still have suspicious, quiet people that are active enough to pop in and post pure fluff, but not bothering to provide any analysis or thoughts: kiwi and crazz.

I might have some time tonight after dinner to read through the thread, I'll post more later this weekend.

[crazzvette]

I'ts not fluff , it's being lost in the game . How to figure who is who on what is said and done is confusing . Even thou i love the game just as survivor and big brother , i know very well that i wouldn't last 2 days in either game . Got to admit it thou , always great to watch .

[JKDS]

Just got home, answering questions first, then participation!

Were you required to reveal this on day 5?

No. Revealing does a few things though
1) turns me into a Night kill target

i wasnt previously. I intentionally played in a manner that would not get me night killed and also wouldnt get me lynched. Now im going to be a force and a big problem for them. Either they let reg jkds live till endgame, or they have to gambol in attacking me and potentially waste a kill. Basically, i think they're forced to try and kill me now. Had i not outed, id have to be 100% right with my reads to draw a night kill and, while i think im good, im not that good.

2) Prevents a mislynch

Go after wolves/vamps, becasue im a villager. I can still die if im unlucky during a lynch, so id rather you guys not waste one and potentially kill me. Insert conspiracy theory here, but id be lying if self preservation wasnt a reason to out. Ldo it is, thats why people out.

Why should we believe such a role exists?

Because i told you it does, and i told you im it. Does it seem overpowered? Underpowered? What reason do you have for it not too? Wuf played in both spectacularrr games, im not surprised he inserted a secret role, and there may be more.

JKDS -- is this a preemptive fake-outing? He had to realize that he's going to be the most likely lynch today after being so quiet all game and then changing his vote last minute yesterday.

You're awfully quick to discredit me. Im watching you.

Incoming super long post!

[bigred]

JKDS has stax syndrome, imo

[TLR]

Good to see Gator involved again, if he is a villager this will be very helpful

Regarding who should we target - wolves or vamps, I think our primary concern is to go with the one we think is the highest chance of being a baddy, regardless of which team he is, and I dont think it really matter, assuming we can hit someone, there are two cases
1 wolf & 1 vamp: one team can hit the other
1 vamp & 1 turncoat vamp: vamp can hit the turncoat

Ong, I think you put too much stock on your view that Boog will fake out, he ha two option to out himself
1. As vig, then the vig will shoot him at night
2. As necromancer, who does not have any special powers so the only lose to the village is Ong dying, then the real necromancer will know he is baddy. His best option was just continue to claim he is a villager and hope the dice roll his way
So not fake outing does not make him a villager.

What do we make out of JKDS day 5 outing?

Regarding the Chelle nom, I agree it was some sort of special hunting, I dont know how much we can make of it

I can get behind a JKDS or crazz lynch right now

[NightGizmo]

Ong, I think you put too much stock on your view that Boog will fake out, he ha two option to out himself
1. As vig, then the vig will shoot him at night
2. As necromancer, who does not have any special powers so the only lose to the village is Ong dying, then the real necromancer will know he is baddy. His best option was just continue to claim he is a villager and hope the dice roll his way
So not fake outing does not make him a villager.

It's also possible he's the remaining wolf, and was worried that if he fake outed as the necro then he would get nommed at night by the vamp.

[OngBonga]

So JKDS wasn't just blabbering shit?

This looks interesting... certainly JKDS picked up a role because he's playing so weird.

Most definitely, JKDS should not be lynched now, and if he's to be believed, well this helps us narrow the wolf pool.

I'm going through day three and vinland is really looking wolfy to me. More so because earlier in the game he was making some decent posts for a noob, but he's gone quiet since the last vamp/wolf is alone, and really all he's done is shadow the opinion of the confirmed villager.

bigred... usual light-hearted stuff from him, looks like a villager to me.
boog... I really don't know. My read on him being a villager based on not outing is flawed.
crazzvette... suspect
gator... suspect
jkds... well this new shit is interesting
kiwimark... villager
nightgizmo... I think villager
tlr... villager
vinland... wolf imo

I think we're looking at a pool of four... boog, crazvette, gator and vinland

note - page 12

[OngBonga]

@TLR... I think we should give JKDS the benefit of the doubt for now, see how it pans out. Him having an unknown special role explains his style of play, so let's see where it goes imo,

[TLR]

I went thru all Stax posts for the first 12 pages, If I had to guess who he is trying to protect it would be boog, he also mentions explicitly once or twice that he is not trying to protect boog which is a very strange statement to make.

Regarding JKDS, I dont know what to make out of such a role if it indeed exists
- lets take the worst case scenario and assume that JKDS is a wolf or vampire - this role may grant him some immunity from the villagers who believe his special roles, as for the baddies, they have to get everyone else killed anyway, so why go for JKDS, this may grant him some immunity from the wolves / vamps.

I agree that there may be secret roles, although I think that in past games it was known beforehand that there are secret roles (not sure about it now).

[TLR]

Anyway, going to sleep now, we have three more days, lets try to get some discussion in this time and not make any hasty lynchs

[JKDS]

Ok just did a read through. Im sold on a few guys

Gator:

I definitely agree with this, however if he is a baddie he should be pretty easy to spot later on so for now I will rescind jyms

Btw, for those of you who are perplexed by my mod comment. Jyms mentioned using his mod powers to ban vette after her lynch so I made a play on that post, but I do like the 5th level thinking on day one.

This could definitely be a turncoat throwing a hint.

These posts are consecutive. Gator is very likely to be the Vamp TC. No vote count analysis is available since Jyms/rong both got NK'd, but his votes on jyms look fake. In addition, it is very unlikely gator is the full vamp based on the chelle kill. Either TC or not at all.

NightGizmo: Theres a lot on him.

First, NG leaves Justin off his list of noobs to kill day1.

Stacks quotes NG's post and adds that Justin is also a noob. This was early in the thread but quoting quotes is hard. That was also stax's first post and i think was a hint to the wolf team.

After some heat on justin, NG adds that he might be a good kill along with joker.

After much more heat and a large wagon on justin, NG finally votes him

Boog mentions stacks being quiet, NG says the same later.

I start a wagon on JV(wolf) for not voting justin (wolf). Stacks steers the convo away from that line of thought, and towards those that did vote for justin instead. Thus protecting JV. Night gizmo later backs up this idea, and is possibly an attempt to preserve JV as well.

Note: the only people left alive who didnt vote for justin are TLR and Bigred, though im pretty sure the last wolf is NG and stacks was only protecting him and not these two.

Later on, NG says

I definitely agree with this, however if he is a baddie he should be pretty easy to spot later on so for now I will rescind jyms

Btw, for those of you who are perplexed by my mod comment. Jyms mentioned using his mod powers to ban vette after her lynch so I made a play on that post, but I do like the 5th level thinking on day one.

Honestly, I'm pretty confused this game.

...

Stacks -- usually quiet, suddenly very active. His new-found activity is a good thing, if he's a villager, but he did manage to get the seer lynched, so obviously he's suspicious. But I think we have enough other people that we need to put pressure on first to get active before we start killing off the only people that are playing the game.

This is when stacks has votes and is getting heat, and is a clear attempt to steer away from him.

I think NG is the last wolf.

In terms of kill analysis, this fits the profile of a reg.

Crazy Vette: Not much, mostly fluff. When she did post in the early game, it was rule questions. Wolf kills dont fit profile of someone as...lets say confused...as her. So maybe vamp? Noob kills are clear on that side, but Rong went out of his way to answer her newb questions, both he and jyms voted her, and if shes the vamp then she killed chelle.

I saw sisterhood between the two of them, so no. Gut read is useless villager ala BID.

Boog: Lynch boog!!!

Rescind boog, im just kidding! Im null on boog. Heres why.

1) He had a big back and forth between stax and him. Theres some sketchy voting here, but ultimately they wall against each other. Wall wars are very hard to do as baddies imo, so i doubt he is the wolf.

2) Boog is reg, so chelle kill doesnt make a ton of sense. I didnt explain that yet i guess, but chelle had a lot of heat and so would likely have been a target today. Her death means someone wasnt looking at that, and that doesnt sit with boog. Hes inactive, but hes still here.

Ong has that "would have fake outted" argument as well...which holds some weight. Its not confirmation, but it leads him towards the townie side. Could he be the turncoat? Idk, i dont really see anything regarding him and Jyms/Rong or either with anyone else. So i have no idea. maybe? Gator fits that spot better. There is simply nothing to suggest he is the TC from what i read.

TLR: Null. He made a post during shotty's lynch that made me feel like he figured out she was a special role or something, but there was no reason to say that in thread. He had some reluctance in lynching stax, then lynched him when stax got a wagon, but then backed off, but then was back on and pushing the wagon later. So idk on that aspect. If he had no clue about shotty's potential role then maybe hes a wolf. Hes a survivor that didnt vote justin as well. Idk, this isnt a good argument. I feel like these facts matter, but dont justify a lynch.

Thats mostly what i got.

TLDR:

Boog: null, dont lynch. TLR: Null dont lynch.
Gator, Gizmo lock baddies.
Crazy v: villager.

Unknowns: Bigred: some evidence he could be a wolf, not much though.
Kiwi: Rong buddies him at a point, but then votes him. Idk, interaction seemed weird.
Vinland: voted wolves and vamps. probably villager.

[NightGizmo]

NightGizmo: Theres a lot on him.

First, NG leaves Justin off his list of noobs to kill day1. I just skimmed through the signup thread looking for people that said they were new, justin never said it was his first time playing.

Stacks quotes NG's post and adds that Justin is also a noob. This was early in the thread but quoting quotes is hard. That was also stax's first post and i think was a hint to the wolf team. Interesting theory... Impossible to refute without knowing I'm a villager.

After some heat on justin, NG adds that he might be a good kill along with joker. After what heat? After wuf told us that there were no modkills, I was the one that suggested joker and justin as the two possibilities -- before anyone bolded justin.

After much more heat and a large wagon on justin, NG finally votes him. Counting from when Ong/boog flipped to justin, I was the 4th vote for him -- I don't think that having 3 votes out of a necessary 11 to lynch means that I was piling on an obvious bandwagon.

Boog mentions stacks being quiet, NG says the same later. I don't get it -- I'm following boog now? Or it's suspicious when anyone makes a comment about stacks?

I start a wagon on JV(wolf) for not voting justin (wolf). Stacks steers the convo away from that line of thought, and towards those that did vote for justin instead. Thus protecting JV. Night gizmo later backs up this idea, and is possibly an attempt to preserve JV as well.
My actual response:

The entire wagon happened in a few short hours, so I don't think it's too suspicious for those that didn't vote for justin. It's definitely worth noting, but it's not a smoking gun. I want a better reason for a Day 2 lynch then "you didn't vote for the wolf on the day 1 lynch."

I was originally thinking that the later votes for justin could hold a wolf or two, piling onto the wagon when it became obvious that he was going to get lynched. But Stacks has an interesting theory, too. Curious to see Ong's reaction

I agreed with one point in Stacks' post, that the voting order might yield some interesting info. But I disagreed with stacks that Ong was a good choice -- I felt the end of the wagon was more interesting


Note: the only people left alive who didnt vote for justin are TLR and Bigred, though im pretty sure the last wolf is NG and stacks was only protecting him and not these two.

Later on, NG says

This is when stacks has votes and is getting heat, and is a clear attempt to steer away from him. I like how you leave out the rest of my post, where I lay out my reasons for why other people are better lynches. Instead you make it look like I wrote a "defend stacks" post.

I think NG is the last wolf.

In terms of kill analysis, this fits the profile of a reg.

Per-point comments inline. I feel like JKDS is twisting my words, purposely using quotes out of context.

[JKDS]

@Wuf: Seperate post just for you!

Lynch Gizmo

[OngBonga]

Yay welcome to the game JKDS!

[OngBonga]

I missed gizmo's "confused" post during my reread, maybe I'm yet to get there. I'm pretty sure stacks used the word "clusterfuck" somewhere too. Wolves like to sew the seed of confusion subtlely, dan and jv have both done this, as pointed out in my post earlier. We can add gator and gizmo to that list. Wouldn't it be sick if all five of them were wolves making "confused" comments? We know three of them are baddies so far.

JKDS is telling the truth about his role imo, if he's not well he had this planned from the very beginning. His notes look like villager notes to me, so if he's a baddie, well this is an awesome play that probably deserves to win lol.

I also like that he's going after gizmo first, before gator. Gator is too good to just lynch on a whim, I think he's a baddie too but I really don't want to be responsible for running a train on a villager gator unless there's a real good reason for it.

I'm in no hurry to put my vote in, I think we need this day to run its course.

[Vinland]

I'm very interested in the chelle kill
Doesn't make sense unless the wolf is clueless or trying to misdirect
I'm out of town so hard to catch up on stuff on the phone
There are things I don't get like gators newfound posting or crazz pretending to try and figure this out, ie no more talk of us eating her pie

Bit of a crossroads bc I feel some haven't really done much to solidify villager status but it could be part of greater strategy that I don't get

[GatorJH]

I guess the problem with being a good wolf is that you always look suspicious, even when you are just a regular villager.

Like I said earlier it may make sense to just go ahead and lynch me so you guys can take another "realistic" look at patterns and such.

Personally though I think either Vinland or crazyv make MUCH better options.

One final thought is that those who fall squarely in the middle end up being bad guys more often than not.

[BooG690]

JKDS' huge ego has caused him to create a role for himself in an effort to completely level the village and claim bragging rights. There is no reason for us to believe such a role exists. Wufwugy would've mentioned secret roles at the beginning. The cake is a lie!

[JKDS]

JKDS' huge ego has caused him to create a role for himself in an effort to completely level the village and claim bragging rights. There is no reason for us to believe such a role exists. Wufwugy would've mentioned secret roles at the beginning. The cake is a lie!

Secret = secret o.o

[BooG690]

Overly defensive wolf itt.

[NightGizmo]

Overly defensive wolf itt.

No, just pointing out that I'm being misquoted.

[JKDS]

er huh

First, NG leaves Justin off his list of noobs to kill day1. I just skimmed through the signup thread looking for people that said they were new, justin never said it was his first time playing. Really? You're a reg now, id expect you to know.

Stacks quotes NG's post and adds that Justin is also a noob. This was early in the thread but quoting quotes is hard. That was also stax's first post and i think was a hint to the wolf team. Interesting theory... Impossible to refute without knowing I'm a villager. I argue that stax would have wanted to tell his team something. Can you find another post where he does this? This post here is the only thing i saw.

After some heat on justin, NG adds that he might be a good kill along with joker. After what heat? After wuf told us that there were no modkills, I was the one that suggested joker and justin as the two possibilities -- before anyone bolded justin. Sorry, meant heat on joker. Post 81 you leave out justin from the list of newbs. Post 86 you specifically state

I like lynching someone quiet on day 1. joker and justinsks haven't even bothered to show up yet, but I don't like wasting a lynch on possible modkills this early.

Wuf says no modkills, ong leads a joker lynch, it gets to 5, then you say you're alright killing them...but you dont actually vote. Then the wagon switches to justin, and your reasoning to vote now is because hes "silent + bad avatar". Thats reluctance.

After much more heat and a large wagon on justin, NG finally votes him. Counting from when Ong/boog flipped to justin, I was the 4th vote for him -- I don't think that having 3 votes out of a necessary 11 to lynch means that I was piling on an obvious bandwagon. fair enough

Boog mentions stacks being quiet, NG says the same later. I don't get it -- I'm following boog now? Or it's suspicious when anyone makes a comment about stacks?

Stacks and TLR also haven't posted yet... Stacks was a quiet wolf last time we played together, which sucked. I wouldn't mind lynching him.

you got me here, i thought boog said it before you.

I start a wagon on JV(wolf) for not voting justin (wolf). Stacks steers the convo away from that line of thought, and towards those that did vote for justin instead. Thus protecting JV. Night gizmo later backs up this idea, and is possibly an attempt to preserve JV as well.
My actual response:

The entire wagon happened in a few short hours, so I don't think it's too suspicious for those that didn't vote for justin. It's definitely worth noting, but it's not a smoking gun. I want a better reason for a Day 2 lynch then "you didn't vote for the wolf on the day 1 lynch."

I was originally thinking that the later votes for justin could hold a wolf or two, piling onto the wagon when it became obvious that he was going to get lynched. But Stacks has an interesting theory, too. Curious to see Ong's reaction

I agreed with one point in Stacks' post, that the voting order might yield some interesting info. But I disagreed with stacks that Ong was a good choice -- I felt the end of the wagon was more interesting

I dont see your point, since this quote is what i think is suspicious :/

Note: the only people left alive who didnt vote for justin are TLR and Bigred, though im pretty sure the last wolf is NG and stacks was only protecting him and not these two.

Later on, NG says

This is when stacks has votes and is getting heat, and is a clear attempt to steer away from him. I like how you leave out the rest of my post, where I lay out my reasons for why other people are better lynches. Instead you make it look like I wrote a "defend stacks" post.
Your thoughts on gator, chelle, crazyv, or whoever else was in the post are irrelevant. I dont know their role. I know stax's role. And you defended him.

I think NG is the last wolf.

In terms of kill analysis, this fits the profile of a reg.

[JKDS]

Oh yeah i forgot you did that. Boog's "Lynch JKDS" vote during night 4 basically clears him of being the Turn coat. Its way to obvious if i were to die that night that he was giving a signal, but something like that serves no other purpose but to cast suspicion on yourself.

I feel a TC boog would never openly do that, feeling that it would result in unnecessary suspicion. So boog is now confirmed villager imo

[JKDS]

bigred
gator
kiwimark
nightgizmo
tlr
vinland

Im rethinking my crazyv theory. Dont see many noobs left. Maybe vinland? Kiwi? Meh. Its certainly possible she killed chelle, i just dont get it. I swear they were buddying.

[BooG690]

Sigh. Rescind JKDS but know I do it begrudgingly.

I don't like the idea of lynching Crazzette. I think it's unlikely a noob baddie would make such a long response due to fear of outting herself. Not to mention noob baddies are good for us in the end game (if they are participating) as they are easier reads, and more likely to link themselves to others.

This and the Chelle kill seals the deal to me. Also, her grammar is God awful.

Lynch Crazzette

[BooG690]

I commented on her grammar and used "seals" instead of "seal." Whatta dumbass.

[bigred]

Boog sucks but his sig is cool

[GatorJH]

Actually I think either vinland or gizmo are our best choices for today.

Is there any way to confirm if a secret role existed in the game? Wuf wouldn't need to verify JKDS' story as much as confirm that at least one special role existed.

[TLR]

Actually I think either vinland or gizmo are our best choices for today.

Is there any way to confirm if a secret role existed in the game? Wuf wouldn't need to verify JKDS' story as much as confirm that at least one special role existed.

Even if JKDS has a secret role I doubt that he revealed his role, it is more likely then not that he is bluffing, and has a different win conditions then the village

[OngBonga]

Well I've had a lazy skim through the last couple of days, will try to find more time to have a better read.

The last baddies are playing better than the ones who got shot. I haven't got a confident wolf read. I'm pretty sure TLR and kiwi are both villagers.

Most likely wolf for me is gator. I cannot emphasise enough the importance of not allowing gator to be one of the remaining three, if it gets that far. I don't think we should lynch him yet, but he knows how much of a threat he is in endgame, even as a villager it's too much of a distraction for the other villager. He understands this.
Gator must go before final day.

Bigred and crazvette, the wolfiest thing both of these two have done is turn up just after the lynch yesterday. Were they lurking and reluctant to rescind their vote? And for bigred to come in and say the village sucks... yeah, people like bigred who throw votes in and then don't reappear until 5 minutes after a special got lynched.
I'm not sold on either of those two being villagers.

boog, I have no idea.

vinland and gizmo, either or both could be wolf but I'm not sure enough to lead the charge on either. I might join gizmo's wagon if there's no better option.

And JKDS... of course he can be a wolf, but make no mistake, this move of his is no spontaneous, it is not in response to him being a target, if he's a wolf he planned this as an epic level from the very beginning. This is why I think he's honest. I knew something was up with him, but there was a part of me thinking he doesn't play wolf like that. Obv glad me and shotty failed in getting him lynched yesterday.

[bigred]

I also have a secret role. It's called dead sexy villager. Wasn't a very good secret role since it's no secret I'm dead sexy.

[Vinland]

Starting to think the chelle kill was vig hunting

Gator looking most suspicious and some people have made interesting post re: gizmo

Other than that I don't have too many reads
I think I'm more open to a gizmo lynch than crazv. If craz is bad she'll f-up and kill a baddie for us anyway imo

[OngBonga]

Starting to think the chelle kill was vig hunting

Yeah I said that earlier.

Gator looking most suspicious

Yeah I said that recently too.

...and some people have made interesting post re: gizmo

You gonna give JKDS villager cred now and showdow him, too?

Other than that I don't have too many reads

Yeah so just keep echoing the villagers.


Seriously this is all vinland has done all game.

[OngBonga]

Can I edit showdow into shadow? That typo is gonna tilt me lol.

[JKDS]

The only thing i have against going for vinland is that he's voted early for a bunch of wolves/vamps. Could be strategy, could not be. Idk. The shadowing thing bugs me too, but i feel theres more to suggest a gizmo wolf than a vinland wolf/vamp

[OngBonga]

idk my read on vinland is this...

Earlier on he was looking like a good, strong noob. His posts suggested he was paying attention, further, I was thinking he was an old skool reg.
Since the vamp/wolf has been alone and not in communication with the others, his posts seem to be more a case of echoing the opinion of the known villager.

Looks much to me like he was getting coached, and now his coach is gone, he's lost.

[TLR]

idk my read on vinland is this...

Earlier on he was looking like a good, strong noob. His posts suggested he was paying attention, further, I was thinking he was an old skool reg.
Since the vamp/wolf has been alone and not in communication with the others, his posts seem to be more a case of echoing the opinion of the known villager.

Looks much to me like he was getting coached, and now his coach is gone, he's lost.

I agree with you Vinland is very suspecious

My main issue right now, I dont buy the JKDS special role at all for the following reasons
1. The role does not make much sense, it does almost nothing to assist the game and only makes the endgame much more complicated
2. If there is such a role there is simply no benefit in revealing this role with very little votes cast his way so far, what is the gain revealing it and let the baddies know it

We have no way of knowing whether or not this is a geniune role, and even if there is such a role we dont know what are the win conditions fo the role.

I think the JKDS s a baddy, his gameplan was to fly under the radar in the first few days, then he took a risk trying to get shotty lynched as he correctly read her as special, and he came up with this role to do two things
1. Divert the attention from his role in getting shotty lynched
2. Try to get to endgame because the baddies will prefer to go for other targets just in case he has this role, this works perfectly in 2 bad teams, as each team would prefer the other to take the risk
3. Have another line of defense vs a lynch

lynch JKDS
also, if I am wrong there is a 50% chance he will survive

[TLR]

Just to clarify - I think JKDS is the turncoat

[OngBonga]

Just to clarify - I think JKDS is the turncoat

Nah TC is gator. If JK is bad, he's the lone wolf imo.

[JKDS]

Thats ridiculous and you know it. You have my reasons. Here, ill restate.

Would wolves/vamps have nommed me prior to outting? No.
Would wolves/vamps attempt to nom me now? Maybe.

Is an attempted nom +EV for the village? Yes, because it may take away their kill and result in nothing.

Also, I specified villager in my paraphrased role pm. I win with the village :/

[TLR]

Thats ridiculous and you know it. You have my reasons. Here, ill restate.

Would wolves/vamps have nommed me prior to outting? No.

Why not, what makes you think they will not nom you, you are a good player and if you are a villager they should get rid of you sooner then later

Would wolves/vamps attempt to nom me now? Maybe.
Is an attempted nom +EV for the village? Yes, because it may take away their kill and result in nothing.

probably not, they have to get villagers but wolves/vamps win if their number equal villager number (and other team dead) , why go for you with 50% chance and not other villagers with 100% chance, they are much less likely to go after you and leave you as the latest kill and you know it, if you really had such a role your best move would have been to get enough attention for the wolves/vamps to target you

Also, I specified villager in my paraphrased role pm. I win with the village :/

I know you specified that, I don't believe you, I think that there are two possible scenarios
1. Your role is totally made up (most likely scenario)
2. There is a secret role but it is not as you specified (less likely but possible)

[JKDS]

Why not, what makes you think they will not nom you, you are a good player and if you are a villager they should get rid of you sooner then later

Have you been reading the thread? Ive posted like, 10 times and exclusively fluff. Would a wolf/vamp ever nom someone who just made a 3 way tie vote? Who would you rather nom, nonparticipating jkds or gator or yourself or NG? Do you really think id ever be targetted playing the way i have been?

probably not, they have to get villagers but wolves/vamps win if their number equal villager number (and other team dead) , why go for you with 50% chance and not other villagers with 100% chance, they are much less likely to go after you and leave you as the latest kill and you know it, if you really had such a role your best move would have been to get enough attention for the wolves/vamps to target you

ok, how? I think a sudden interest shift would make me a lynch target, not a nom. Only other way is to be 100% right with my reads, and honestly no. Thats not realistic. I dont see any other way to force a kill attempt. Also endgame is a long way away for any side to think about.

I know you specified that, I don't believe you, I think that there are two possible scenarios
1. Your role is totally made up (most likely scenario)
2. There is a secret role but it is not as you specified (less likely but possible)

Ok, lets assume im a secret role but it isnt what i said.

1) ive made myself a target: not beneficial
2) im some kind of 4th party: no night kill, unlikely; imba too with partial immunity
3) what other win conditions have we ever had? Do you think its likely wuf invented one in this particular game?

[JKDS]

I mean, maybe i fucked this up, but i just dont see any other way to effectively use tihs role.

[TLR]

The thing is that this is a very sensible role to invent as baddy since you know you are going to get some heat today, your name has come up yesterday by Ong and Shotty who were willing to lynch you, your 3 way vote will cause you to get heat and you know it, so it makes perfect sense that you came up with a weird role that explains both why you were invisible for the first few days, reduce the chance of you being lynched/nommed and will focus the discussion on this role rather then your attempt vote for Shotty, your 3 way tie opened the door for Stax to switch and get shotty killed

[TLR]

It possible Gator is a baddy but he is not anywhere close to top 3 lynch candidate IMO

[OngBonga]

Yeah I agree gator is not a great lynch for today, but by the same token, neither is JKDS.

lynch vinland

Other options are crazvette and gizmo.

[TLR]

Yeah I agree gator is not a great lynch for today, but by the same token, neither is JKDS.

lynch vinland

Other options are crazvette and gizmo.

Ong - ask yourself this about JKDS
1. If his role his genuine do you really think revealing it at the beginning of the day makes any sense?
2. If he is a baddie, does inventing this role serve his goals?
3. Why did he vote for Shotty yesterday

This does not add up

[OngBonga]

kiwi, your TLR vote is a wasted vote.

[OngBonga]

1. If his role his genuine do you really think revealing it at the beginning of the day makes any sense?

Yes, he was gonna get lynched today. The later he leaves it, the more suspect it is.

2. If he is a baddie, does inventing this role serve his goals?

Yes, which is why I'm not 100% sold on him being honest, it's just my opinion at this moment.

3. Why did he vote for Shotty yesterday

I guess because he wanted to avoid nom.

If JK is a wolf, he's committed to his outing, he's not gonna save himself from lynch by saying "just kidding guys lol". He's gonna find it harder and harder to keep lying about his role if he is lying. That's why I think he's a poor choice today. He says he's gonna talk more now he's outed himself, I think we should give him the chance to either a) flush out the baddies, or b) make a mistake.

I'm something like 70-30 (to pluck a number out of thin air) in favour of JK being honest. Like I said earlier, I really don't think he plays wolf like he did the first four days. Not unless he had this epic level planned from the start.

[GatorJH]

Ong, on a scale of 1-10 how surprised are you going to be when I show up as a villager?

[OngBonga]

Ong, on a scale of 1-10 how surprised are you going to be when I show up as a villager?

lol

Around 6. Had stacks showed up as villager, I'd have changed my avatar to that monkey I posted. I'm not nearly as confident about you, but you seem to be dropping hints, which makes me think you're turncoat. I can't ignore that.

[TLR]

Gator, what is your take on JKDS

[JKDS]

Tlr, what is your take on anyone but me?

Thoughts on gator, boog, gizmo, and vinland plz

[TLR]

Tlr, what is your take on anyone but me?

Thoughts on gator, boog, gizmo, and vinland plz

Gator - kind of like you he was very quiet for a few days then became active, It will be very hard to spot him as baddy, he is probably in my 2nd tier of baddy suspects, not willing to lynch him yet

Boog - I thought he was low profile villager, now I am not so sure, I think it is possible that he is a baddy

NG - NG is hard as hell to spot as baddy, but right now he is in my villager list

Vinland - I have been suspecious of Vinland since day 1 or so, I think it is possible he is the last wolf

I also think Crazz is a top notch suspect and she is not getting any heat at this point

Kiwi - probably a disinterested villager

BR - no clue, appears more villagery then a baddy

[GatorJH]

Between Rong, Jyms and JV there is enough creativity for them to come up with a role like that, if played correctly, could add a few days to the life of a baddie in trouble.

If I look at his gameplay I see the following: He jumped out with a lynch of Jyms on Day 1 which Jim then retaliated with a lynch for JKDS (that he rescinded in his next post). He then made a few nondescript posts and voted for joker. Went silent again then put the nail in the coffin for Justin. (Not what I would call laying low here).

Voted to lynch JV early on day 2 then quickly switched to Ong. Flipped between a few players and looked pretty villagery.

Was pretty quiet on day 3 voting for Boog and not much else. The started day 4 voting for boog again but got real quiet until his vote for shotty.

Based on all of that I think there is a near zero chance he is the last werewolf, but could very well be a vampire. However they would have had to come up with the role on day 1 and also decide it would be JKDS pulling it off as Jyms was way too active imo to pull it off effectively. All in all it is probably something like:

Vampire - 50%
Telling the truth -45%
Werewolf - 5%

[JKDS]

15.5 hours. Time to make a decision. Believe me, then vote gator or gizmo. Dont, then vote me. Maybe ill survive it, who knows.

[Vinland]

JKDS:
I think a few are a little hung up on your possible special condition...
Do you have the full pm telling you about the special role?
You obv would know people want proof of this so I imagine you kept the full pm?

[BooG690]

PMs can't be posted.

[JKDS]

What boog said. I paraphrased it, but even that was rule skirting.

[wufwugy]

ong - vinland
tlr - jkds
boog - crazz
jkds - gizmo
bigred - crazz
kiwi - tlr

no vote - crazz gator gizmo vinland

crazz = 2
gizmo = 1
jkds = 1
tlr = 1
vinland = 1

Day 5 ends at 3PM PST; just under 18 hours from now. I may or may not be on at that time; any vote on or after 3:00 PST will not count

[kiwiMark]

Again, I'm here and reading everything - with interest -, just don't have a lot to post.

Chances are it'll probably stay that way until next game, because granted I have people pointing me in certain directions re how to play but I don't know who of those pointers might be a baddie, who might be just bad at this game or who is both.

[kiwiMark]

And yeah I guess it's pretty obviously villagery but that's a luxury I can afford, being the most handsome villager. Am I missing something or do bad-guy teams have way more incentive to be trying to nom potential members of other bad guy teams rather than villagery-looking people, specials aside?

[JKDS]

They certainly do now, though that wasnt the case when i outed :/

[OngBonga]

I also think Crazz is a top notch suspect and she is not getting any heat at this point

But she's vote leader... and I'll prob be flipping to her soon if kiwi doesn't rescind his TLR vote hint fucking hint

[kiwiMark]

what difference does it make if my vote stays with TLR or goes with nobody, at this stage?