Dealing with downswings in MTTs

A lot of players online make mention of of sample size and what is a proper number to establish whether or not you are beating the game. I am posting this because I want to discuss something that I think is pretty important and something I have been struggling with a lot due to a bad break even stretch.

5.2k games $12 180 only


This month (September) is the first month ever that I will have played 2k 180s in 1 month. For me the 2k mark was a goal I have had for quite awhile and now that I am finally going to hit it I want to throw myself down a flight of stairs. I always heard the saying "you eventually will run worse then you ever thought possible" and while I gave a lot of merit to that. The extent of that quote is something you just can't grasp until it hits you....

If you look at that graph you will notice that over the sample of only 1600 games were an upswing and the rest has been me breaking even. What is even more frustrating is that this is my total # of games played for $12 180s....at a whopping 16% ROI. Which if you have guessed by now that means this entire month, the 2k games, has been me just breaking even (it even started before then). Now, before this turns into a 5k games played bad beat story I'm going to get to my point...Just because you lose semi-long term doesn't mean you aren't a winning player. I actually consider myself a pretty decent player and whatever my ability I know I put a ton of effort into getting better.

The thing I find interesting about my current situation is the definition of sample size. How long before this ends, when do I get to start winning again etc. Since there is nothing in the chaotic world forcing my "luck" to change, technically speaking I could break even for the rest of my life. I am posting this in the tilt forum because I hope it will give some of the posters here insight to what the negative side of variance actually looks like. If you want to play poker seriously then you have to realize that a swing like I am experiencing will happen in your career no matter how good you are. Imagine taking all of your worst bad beats and having them happen over and over and over none stop for a TON of games.

This is something I really want to drive home. Just losing a hand or two where you were the favorite isn't variance, its expectation. Variance is when these situations occur over and over again forming a "swing". These swings are what make up variance. You should expect AA or a set or whatever to get cracked, take this as an example:


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 12 Tournament, 3000/6000 Blinds 600 Ante (2 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t165939)
Hero (BB) (t104061)

Hero's M: 10.20

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, A
SB bets t165339 (All-In), Hero calls t97461 (All-In)

Flop: (t208122) 8, J, 10 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t208122) 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t208122) K (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t208122

Results:
SB had K, 2 (two pair, Kings and twos).
Hero had A, A (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: SB won t208122

In this for instance it was HU at the final table of a 180. Which means when villain won he took the extra $200 dollars with him that comes from besting 2nd place. I have hundreds of these that have happened all in my last 2k games and as a matter of fact. This same situation happened 3 times this same day where I got all my money in HU good and lost.

The issues I have are shrugging it off and not having it manifest itself in me. I hate losing to players worse then I am because I make myself believe that since I am better I should have been able to beat them. As much as we hate to admit it luck is a very big part of this game because really any time anything happens it is "by chance". It scares me to think that as I move up the ladder in the MTT world. What is to keep me from going on something like this again only for a lot more money? In reality, nothing and odds are it probably will.

The only bit of advice I can give from this experience is to play your %s as best as you can and try to play as much as you can. And even then you still might not come out ahead because really...What says you have to? Instead of focusing on the result, try and train your brain and body to become instantly fixated on the next hand so you can play it as well as you can. Instead of getting angry, try to stop and think about why you are angry. A majority of the time humans become upset because they don't understand something. Try really looking in and understanding the root cause of your emotion.

Good luck and enjoy not running like I am

No one? Everyone knows this stuff already?

Thanks for posting that. My sample size is much much smaller, but I do tend to question when I string together 5+ losses in STT's. Have to train myself not to start thinking I suck at this, but at the same time keep looking for holes and ways to improve.

I've also found it's tempting (when you're losing) to change your playing style to something that may not work for you. I'm a pretty tight player, and it's tempting sometimes to start to splash around because I see the chip leader at the table has been playing 60% of the pots. The thing I have to remember is that he probably ends up chip leader with 5 players left 20% of the time, and he busts out first or second the other 80%. Clearly there are some really good laggy players out there, but at my level most of the Gus Hansen wannabes are probably losing players.

Anyhow, my random thoughts on it.

I wanted to come back and update this a bit...This has been my progress since my break even. As you can see you just have to wait it out sometimes and there is no telling how long you will have to stand by. People need to prepare themselves for this type of variance when playing MTTs. I'm still below where I want to be but its hard to predict where you actually are even with 6.5k games played.

Nice work!

Damn, congrats on pushing through it. I don't think I could and thats why I dont play mtts regularly.