I usually don't post hands like this...
I wasn't on my comp when i played this hand, so no HUD. I've played probably 50 hands with the villain so far and he seems pretty good and decently aggressive. I haven't seen him showdown a bluff or anything retarded.
Knowing that this guy is a TAGG and solid, i thought there was a good chance that he thought the Q was a good two barrel card for me. Also, he took about 10-15 seconds before shoving the river.
Obviously, this is a marginal situation. I doubt he shows up with AQ here, KQ possibly but not likely for a lot of reasons. I feel like my hand is really nothing but a bluff catcher. But, i also think that he's bluffing here about 15%-25% of the time (my best guess). So pretty much i answered my own question that the river is a fold, but i'd like to hear if your analysis is any different.
POKERSTARS GAME #117437225: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/08/28 - 17:14:30 (ET)
Table 'Tucana IV' 2-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: PIMP1111 ($883.60 in chips)
Seat 2: hero($207.50 in chips)
hero: posts small blind $1
PIMP1111: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to hero [Ad Qc]
hero: raises $4 to $6
PIMP1111: calls $4
*** FLOP *** [Ts 7d 7c]
PIMP1111: checks
hero: bets $8
PIMP1111: calls $8
*** TURN *** [Ts 7d 7c] [Qs]
PIMP1111: checks
hero: bets $20
PIMP1111: raises $40 to $60
hero: calls $40
*** RIVER *** [Ts 7d 7c Qs] [3d]
PIMP1111: bets $809.60 and is all-in
