Ducks vs. decent tag OOP

Villain is 11/9/3 over 300 hands with 30% attempt to steal and 35% w$wsf. He's repping 55/77 (i don't think he shows up very often with 87 or 67) but I think he's FOS a lot so I call with the intention of c/rai on the turn as I would with my monsters here.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

SB ($17.50)
BB ($27.80)
UTG ($96.75)
UTG+1 ($8.50)
MP1 ($48.75)
MP2 ($65.20)
MP3 ($11.90)
Hero ($52.45)
Button ($60.20)

Preflop: Hero is CO with http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/2s.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/2d.gif.
5 folds, Hero raises to $2, Button calls $2, 2 folds.

Flop: ($4.75) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/5d.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/7h.gif, http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/7s.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $3.5, Button raises to $9, Hero calls $5.50.

Turn: ($22.75) http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/.../smiles/jh.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $7, Hero raises to $41.45.....

I mean... I think his range is 22-TT here and maybe AQ/KQ (KJ/AJ/AK) with a bit of random crap thrown in. I think he plays almost all his pocket pairs this way and folds them to this shove.

How does he view you? I think that plays into this analysis a lot.

I would think he thinks I'm a mediocre tag who is aggressive in position and will cbet this flop with nearly 100% of my fairly wide opening range. FWIW he doesn't play many tables so he will have time to think about it (and he did)

id c/r the flop then the hand is over if it goes to a turn

he just flatted preflop so maybe hes is being creative with sc in lp and maybe he has that 7 and you are drawing to 2 oots? thats exactly how i would have played if i had a 7. but fwiw i dont think his range is going to help him find a fold and you get called.

If he's bluffing, then WTF is up with his turn bet size?

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Originally Posted by Fnord

If he's bluffing, then WTF is up with his turn bet size?

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Zing very good. Opp had JJ (which I really did not put in his range at all, note taken) good game me.

I think my plan on the flop was OK but once he bet so small on the turn I should have realised the game was up, changed my plan and folded.

PLAYER NOTE!

How come you don't put JJ in his range here? Just curious.

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Originally Posted by sweetlemon69

How come you don't put JJ in his range here? Just curious.

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I thought he'd know he was far enough of my range to 3 bet very profitably here. I also thought he wouldn't want to get involved in a 3/4-way pot with jacks and by calling he's giving the blinds good odds to get in on the action. Perhaps I should have considered it more though, the average 50NL reg doesn't 3-bet nearly enough and admitedly I hadn't seen this opp showdown less than QQ after 3betting.

Actually the more I look at this hand the more I dislike my play because my reads aren't strong enough and I the stacks aren't quite deep enough for a meaningful shove. Also I don't think he will bet enough of his range on the turn for this to be good.

LAWLS

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Originally Posted by HybridTt

4. its a dry board he can put you on a bluff easily...

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don't drawy boards make it look bluffier?

also, b/f the flop. he isn't drawing, and you shouldn't want to play a big pot here.

lawls

I think frequency is pretty key here.

Doing this once in a while is good poker. Hero just picked the wrong person at the wrong time and misread his opponent's turn bet size.

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Originally Posted by HybridTt

Quote:

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Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Quote:

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Originally Posted by HybridTt

4. its a dry board he can put you on a bluff easily...

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don't drawy boards make it look bluffier?

also, b/f the flop. he isn't drawing, and you shouldn't want to play a big pot here.

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thats what i said... its a dry board he can put us on a bluff, meaning he is more likely to call light and or reshove light.

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i was saying it looks less like a bluff cuz we are obviously not semi-bluffing