AA oop 5nl zoom

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com/

Button ($5.10)
SB ($6.58)
BB ($17.68)
Hero (UTG) ($8.23)
MP ($7.29)
CO ($9.70)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, Ahttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/heart.gif
Hero raises to $0.15, 1 fold, CO raises to $0.52, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.45, CO calls $0.93

Flop: ($2.97) 7http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ilies/club.gif, 8http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif, Qhttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...es/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($2.97) Khttp://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...lies/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets $1.45, CO raises to $4.61, Hero ???

I don't have any reads, so complete unknown.

Pre sizing, this is pretty much my standard and would appreciate being told if it's bad.

Flop check is intended to rep AK, and is also cautious due to stacks. I think villain is extremely strong here. I think he has JJ QQ AK maybe some AQ, so I don't see what value there is in betting. He doesn't have any draws, so betting is only expecting value from AQ, which I'd expect him to bet anyway if I check over, and which might not even be in his range. His jacks, again he might peel one street but by checking flop I should be able to still get one street of value from jacks later on. So checking seems better than betting. Villain checks back, so now I take AQ out of his range.

Turn is bad, because it hits my range so hard that now I can't expect to get value from jacks. But it does hit villain's AK. So I bet, and villain raises. Now I think this is QQ AK, and I have to question if villain would raise AK here. This feels like a fold.

Thoughts?

Looks like a fold, because you look exactly like AK or QQ and yet villain still wants to gii deep-ish? I just don't see anybody getting out of line in a 4bet pot like this post-flop without the goods unless they're on mega tilt, but obviously you won't know about the latter on Zoom.

FWIW, my standard assumption for villain's 4bet flat range is AK/KQs/AA/QQ/JJ in this spot and I'd be confident he only plays KQ and QQ this way. There's an argument that he maybe calls a little wider to set mine pre, but I think we can strongly discount that.

Not betting flop seems bad too.

I discount setmining due to the price he's getting pre. If I've been setmined by 77/88, well that's fine because I'm making well enough money pre flop.

The flop check, I wouldn't normally slow play aces on flop vs an unknown at 5nl, but on this occasion felt checking was better than betting, because I don't think I'm getting a great deal of action from worse hands. His JJ might love my flop check enough to give me two streets on non A/K runouts, whereas a triple barrel strategy might only get one street from jacks. I think there's value in checking flop.

We only need something like 35 percent equity when called for a shove to be better than folding.

I like all streets as long as we get it in here.

I folded, but I'm happy to gii on all turns except this, because I think bean nailed it when he said I look like AK QQ exactly. Villain should have no reason to think he can push me off AK tptk in a 4b pot, so it's hard to imagine one pair being good here even close to 35% of the time. I'm pretty much praying he has AK, but how often does AK raise turn here? He'd be chopping at best when the money goes in. I think from his pov AK is a turn call and not remotely close. I need to be assuming he's a fish for him to raise AK on turn, and I don't have that confidence.

This is my thought process through the hand, I'm far from suggesting I'm right to think like this.

Some quick numbers for reference:

We have 50 percent against {QQ+, AK}.

If he only has half of the possible combinations of AK, then we have 36 percent.

Also, the idea that a random at 5nl has second-level thinking 100% of the time is getting a bit ahead of ourselves.

butchered bro, no need for fps vs:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

complete unknown.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Pre sizing, this is pretty much my standard and would appreciate being told if it's bad.

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seems pretty big, guess you don't have a 4b-fold or 4b bluff range here...

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Flop check is intended to rep AK, and is also cautious due to stacks. I think villain is extremely strong here. I think he has JJ QQ AK maybe some AQ, so I don't see what value there is in betting.

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bet flop if you want to rep AK yo. You look like AA here a lot after that 4b sizing and this check.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

so betting is only expecting value from AQ,which I'd expect him to bet anyway if I check

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disagree x2

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Now I think this is QQ AK, and I have to question if villain would raise AK here. This feels like a fold.
Thoughts?

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fold turn as played but meh close. I don't think one pair is good here very often in a 4b pot and facing a turn raise

Thanks for those numbers spoon. I'm happy he has AK in his range right up until he raises turn, so I guess you're saying that if he raises turn half the time with AK, then we're still good to stack him?

Cheers daven...

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seems pretty big, guess you don't have a 4b-fold or 4b bluff range here...

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Not vs an unknown. 4b sizing here seems about right to ensure his enitre range cannot make any money post flop. Any smaller and he's getting a decent price to setmine vs KK+, and being honest that's probably what my range is, although I'd expect him to think I have at least QQ and AK too.

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bet flop if you want to rep AK yo. You look like AA here a lot after that 4b sizing and this check.

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I don't think I bet AK here, not in a 4b pot where he hasn't got a great many pocket pairs. What am I hoping he folds? But this doesn't matter, because villain should have no idea how I play AA or AK in this spot. Checking feels weak, which is what I want villain to think. I would expect villain to expect me to cbet AA here close to 100%.

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disagree x2

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Ok I should be more clear. I don't think I get three streets of value out of anything except AQ. By checking flop I figure I *might* get an extra street off any pocket pairs he does have, such as TT/JJ, when the board runs clean from villain's pov. If I bet flop, I get one street from those hands at best. And I expect him to bet AQ, but if he doesn't, that's fine because I usually still get two streets off him. I feel like checking flop gains extra value off some of his range, at the expense of *maybe* one street from his AQ. And I'm not even sure he has AQ in his range, so that seems like a reasonable sacrifice.

folding seems out of the question in a 4b pot even in rush.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Not vs an unknown. 4b sizing here seems about right to ensure his enitre range cannot make any money post flop. Any smaller and he's getting a decent price to setmine vs KK+

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max he can win from a call into this pot after rake is about (.07+0.52+.95*8.23*2)/2 = $8.10. Then even when he hits a set (1/9) and the money goes in, you have about 10% when you didn't also hit a set, and the nuts when you did. Yeah, plus you are assuming you have an inability to fold postflop, but you have a fold button, especially cos AK is in your range here.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

I don't think I bet AK here, not in a 4b pot where he hasn't got a great many pocket pairs. What am I hoping he folds?

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if you were to cbet, what's your cbet sizing in this spot with your entire range? I like 90c. Also, he can easily have KK here and he isn't folding that, plus with that sizing he can even spaz raise things like jacks.

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Originally Posted by OngBonga

Ok I should be more clear. I don't think I get three streets of value out of anything except AQ.

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KK

I'm not giving him KK. I don't think KK is flatting a 4b very often at all at 5nl, certainly not under 200bb deep, in fact I can't remember ever seeing it happen. AA sure, but not KK.

If I cbet flop, I prob make it same as my turn sizing... around half pot.

My distinct impression was that no one got in KK pre for 150+ bbs at zoom?

as played I think all options are meh but I'd prefer betting flop to make b/f turn easier.

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Originally Posted by baudib

My distinct impression was that no one got in KK pre for 150+ bbs at zoom?

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Well that's contrary to the impression I'm getting, which is that I don't ever see anyone flat KK pre. Maybe they do and then c/f flop like sick bastards. But I don't recall noting villain flatting KK, like ever. Not at 5nl. I'm pretty much happy to stack KK for up to 200bb before I start thinking that I'm only getting action from AA.

Actually I recall noting villain flatting a standard open with KK... but that's passive fish territory, not reasonable caution.

Villain is repping QQ/KK, but those hands might not even outright jam turn (might just call). Not to mention that KK might bet flop sometimes.

I'd be most worried about losing to a hand like KQ or something, cause that's the most consistent with checking flop and jamming turn. Even still, I don't think you're being heavily exploited by never folding AA in a 4b pot.

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I don't think you're being heavily exploited by never folding AA in a 4b pot.

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I have realised that it's not possible to lose money post flop when I get called at this 4b sizing pre flop, so I am beginning to realise that folding here is quite absurd, and should be reserved for the times I have solid enough reads to know I'm beat.

I hope that you made the correct move here Ong. If I was on your place I will probably call his raise. I don't know what was his player stats, but I can not fold with two Aces on this kind of hand. It looks me like he had AK, so for that reason I will probably made a call and go to the end on this hand, except if it be dealt another K on the river, in that kind of situation I will go fold.