Calling all the way...

[Fnord]

No read (other than his James Bond avatar)

One of the fish busted and the table is tightening up (other than the tool with immediate position on me who cold-called me with QJo.)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Button ($24.25)
Fnord ($99)
BB ($136.90)
UTG ($40.35)
UTG+1 ($76.55)
MP1 ($30)
MP2 ($48.35)
MP3 ($103.50)
CO ($105.70)

Preflop: Fnord is SB with T, J.
UTG calls $1, 6 folds, Fnord completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($3) J, 5, 6 (3 players)
Fnord checks, BB checks, UTG bets $4, Fnord calls $4, BB folds.

Turn: ($11) 7 (2 players)
Fnord checks, UTG bets $10, Fnord calls $10.

River: ($31) T (2 players)
Fnord checks, UTG bets $25.35 (All-In), Fnord calls $25.35.

Final Pot: $81.70

...that's MISTER Fish to you sir...

[ilikeaces86]

whats the question

[Fnord]

whats the question

Worth calling these down? Think I'm good here often enough (before I hit my river?) Bet/raise any street?

[ilikeaces86]

whats the question

Worth calling these down? Think I'm good here often enough (before I hit my river?)

no

[Fnord]

Hmmmm....

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

44,550 games 0.015 secs 2,970,000 games/sec

Board: Jd 5h 6s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 22.9966 % 23.00% 00.00% { TT-22 }
Hand 2: 77.0034 % 77.00% 00.00% { JsTd }

40 games 0.005 secs 8,000 games/sec

Board: Jd 5h 6s 7s Th
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 25.0000 % 25.00% 00.00% { TT-22 }
Hand 2: 75.0000 % 75.00% 00.00% { JsTd }

[Miffed22001]

can you not reraise the flop and find out where you are.
nice river.

[Fnord]

can you not reraise the flop and find out where you are.

If I raise, what's the difference between my hand and 32o?

[DaHorror]

That hand range is pretty small...I guess you ruled out 55 and 66 here and assumed a lower than J pocket?

No KJ or QJ option there?

Looks like bizzarrely fishing play (as you noted) unless you were under the impression that he was buying the pot with middle pair, 78 or one of the hands in your dumps (which is what appears to be going on here).

[Miffed22001]

If I raise, what's the difference between my hand and 32o?

It puts us in the aggressors seat and allows us to play the potential scare card on the turn. No reads for sure, but how would he act a few hands in to a reraise flop and a decent turn bet?

[Fnord]

Alright, I'll post some more of my thoughts.

This guy is a random short buy in a game where I have 1000+ hands on all the regulars. So although I have "no read", there are a lot of player profiles that don't fit. He could be playing the Getting Started with HE short stack, but I think that strategy has you open raising and even then I'm not unhappy with where I'm at against his range. Maybe there is something to that James Bond avatar as well...

The pot size is a joke. It really comes down to how often I'm good.

I think small to mid pockets are likely holdings, as well as something like AA/KK/AK that failed to limp-re-raise. Throw in lots of other random crap as well.

A standard button bet in this game is from $1-$3. $4 is a very suspect bet. He probably wants me to fold, although it could be tipping a big hand with a big bet. I could see him limping AA/KK here given the table texture, then betting like this when his LRR failed miserably. In either case, I don't see the point in raising. If he's blowing smoke, lets see how far he'll go. If he's got it, it takes away our outs (we're drawing quite live against AA/KK.)

3 to the flop, 2 are blinds, and not much out besides the Jack. I think my hand is good here a lot and I kind of ran with it. Not something I do a lot and the play surprised me looking back at it. Part of me said "you're good here, look him up" and I ran with it. Unsure if it was a leak or good poker.

[Aces]

Why couldn't he limp with AJ/KJ/QJ or even 65?

Don't understand why chk/raising that flop would indicate 32 or similar. Wouldn't a chk/raise say "I have at least TP", or same thing if you just call the flop and lead out on the turn? Wouldn't he normally lay down a bluff and call or reraise a real hand?

I'd have trouble calling the turn bet having no info after just chk/calling the flop and checking the turn.

[thirteen]

Why couldn't he limp with AJ/KJ/QJ or even 65?

Don't understand why chk/raising that flop would indicate 32 or similar. Wouldn't a chk/raise say "I have at least TP", or same thing if you just call the flop and lead out on the turn? Wouldn't he normally lay down a bluff and call or reraise a real hand?

I'd have trouble calling the turn bet having no info after just chk/calling the flop and checking the turn.

Reading Fnords posts have started to change my mind on how to play NL Ring. I think he made a good move here by NOT raising.

Why, you ask?

Well he flops top pair, and has a feeling that his hand is good on the flop. While its a vulnerable hand, it could still be a good hand here. Villain didn't raise preflop. Villain made (according to what I gather from fnords last post)a suspiciously large flop bet, possibly to protect a hand an induce a fold.

If you feel your hand is good here, why not call? Why not see as Fnord puts it "how far he'll take it"? When the two pair hits on the river and villain pushes, I think you're likely in good shape and definitely call. I don't believe he has a straight and a set seems unlikely with the flop aggression.

[AllinLife]

turn call w/o read sucks

[thirteen]

So, how did this decision turn out? Was your instinct good or did he have a legit hand?

[Fnord]

So, how did this decision turn out? Was your instinct good or did he have a legit hand?

For the results oriented, he had A 6 and I was ahead on every street. Trying to figure out if I got lucky here...

[thirteen]

For the results oriented, he had A 6 and I was ahead on every street. Trying to figure out if I got lucky here...

You felt you were ahead. You may not have had a solid read on the player but you had some logic behind your decision (like the big flop bet) and you've played long enough that your instinct on a hand should be worth trusting. Seems like you did fine. Kept him in the hand with garbage and got paid.

[r8ed]

TPGK isn't a hand I want to invest this much money with. Without a read on somebody, I'll just let them take the flop until I have more information - especially since all I have is $1 invested. I figure I can get the money later when I have more favorable conditions and a read. I always try to remind myself that even fish and short stacks can get a good hand

[Fnord]

TPGK isn't a hand I want to invest this much money with.

40bb isn't a lot of money to put in with a pair (alright, it was an unraised pot...)

...and that's a pretty rigid way to look at things. Poker is a funny game in that sometimes high card Ace is good, sometimes trips no good.

[r8ed]

TPGK isn't a hand I want to invest this much money with.

40bb isn't a lot of money to put in with a pair (alright, it was an unraised pot...)

...and that's a pretty rigid way to look at things. Poker is a funny game in that sometimes high card Ace is good, sometimes trips no good.

I''m just not crazy about the kicker. If you had an Ace or King it may be a more comfortable play for me. My postflop skills and reads are quite lame relative to yours I guess. Before you posted the results, I figured him for AJ. He overplayed his hand (if you want to call it that) and you knew it and took advantage. I think I'm a year or more away from these types of reads.

[Fnord]

I find it more profitable to worry about kickers pre-flop.

Post-flop, do you think AJ has so much more equity here than JT?

[Rondavu]

You have to think about percieved strength on both sides when you make a decision.

When two people check to the button in an unraised pot on a jack high rainbow and the button overbets the pot, then you have to ask yourself why. If you cannot answer the question, then something is wrong.

At this point you decide what side of the fence your opponent is on. Is he VERY strong, or is he VERY weak. If you think maybe strong you check raise. If you are leaning way over on the weak side then CALLING DOWN is best because you induce bigger bluffs on later streets with little chance of being drawn out.

[DaHorror]

One question - why complete JTo in the small blind if you are not going to bet the flop? Were you planning to check-raise here? What if no one bets the flop? The turn completes a straight (hand is not necessarily in but nevertheless) - you going to bluff at it with TPGK then?
I mean hell I'll make the villain's play occassionally (not pot overbet but 2/3 pot on the flop in his situation - checked to him and he has middle pair top kicker which is probably the best hand at the time - it looks like you are drawing.
In his spot I'd check/fold after the flop tho as the villain given that the turn completes 2 straights.

Your read on the buy was good - but I'm confused about what you were doing here to begin with?

[Fnord]

I didn't bet because I figured the button would often bet out here with any 2 and I wanted to see if I was right. If the Button + BB get mixed into something, then I can walk away from my hand without putting anything in post-flop.

Quite often I'll check/raise here in an aggo limit game, so that fed into it as well.

[DaHorror]

ah ok - figured that was your plan - was just curious - glad it worked out