Operation Heads Up Proposal: what am I missing here?

[alias2211]

Now that I'm to the point where I'm regularly winning decent sized buyin shorthanded cash games, I wanted to start putting some focus on other areas of my NLHE game that I don't currently spend much time on. My first area to work on is going to be heads up, and I've decided that HU SNGs are how I'm going to start. Here is my rough draft so far of my operation proposal, please tell me what you like and don't like and I'll try to make some adjustments. I plan on starting this operation in the middle of February, so I still have plenty of time to make some changes before I start. But once I start, I want to keep all variables consistent so I won't changing things along the way.

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Operation Heads UP+++
goal: to earn a profit of $5000 exclusively through HU SNG play
investment: $1000

BR mgmt:
14 Buyins = move down a level
15-29 Buyins = stay at current level
30 Buyins = move up a level

Buyins Rake 14 22 30
30 1.5 441 693 945
50 2.5 735 1155 1575
100 5 1470 2310 3150
200 8 2912 4576 6240

Assessment:
how many games before reaching goal?
how many hands before reaching goal?
time spent total hours before reaching goal?
hourly rate?
rate per HU match?

assumptions:
I will win $5000 or lose $1000 trying, no inbetweens (I can afford this BR from my cash game BR, it's ok if I lose it all)
I will follow these BR rules exclusively, no exceptions whatsoever (separate account, separate BR)
I will not play less than $30/$1.50 SNGs, even below 14 buyins (just doesn't seem worth my time considering what I make playing cash games)
I will start @ $50NL level
I will play a mixture of blind escalation rates (Regular, Turbo, Ultra Turbo - I'm curious to hear if anyone objects to this approach for any reason and wants me to play ONLY one type)

[DogOnMySide]

This probably sounds weird but the only thing I don't like is the basic concept of it...

You are a pretty successful NLHE cash player...
you want to broaden your experience ...
therefore...
You're going to play HU SnG's?

I'm just not sure that there are many (any?) transferable skills here...

HOWEVER from your post you seem to be:
- good at poker and properly bankrolled (can drop $1000 without being broke)
- organized and dedicated
- committed

So basically yeah it looks fun and like a good idea, and I get the impression you know what you are doing. I'm just wary that this might negatively affect your cash-game profitablility if you start (even subconsciously) moving the skills of 2 handed SnGs to a ring game situation.

[alias2211]

DogOMS-

Thanks so much for the reply and questions, that is exactly what I'm looking for here. Let me see if I can address the issues that you raise:

I'm just not sure that there are many (any?) transferable skills here...

I am not really looking at this operation as a means to gain skills which I can apply directly to NLHE cash games. Instead, I'm looking at it as a means to get better at a different form of NLHE. So even though I am sure that some of the skills I'm likely to hone through this effort will no doubt help me in a broad sense, I actually want to be able kick the shit out of opponents heads up on a regular basis, and be aware of the nuances in that environment that differ from how the cash games flow. I just don't want to be a one trick dog and pony show, I want to be a successful poker player period, so I need to get myself out of my comfort zone and challenge myself to learn about the different forms of NLHE. At some point I would like to pickup other games like Omaha, LHE, etc, but for now, I'm keeping the focus on NLHE. My next NLHE adventure will bring me to MTTs, but that will be a ways off yet...

So basically yeah it looks fun and like a good idea, and I get the impression you know what you are doing. I'm just wary that this might negatively affect your cash-game profitablility if you start (even subconsciously) moving the skills of 2 handed SnGs to a ring game situation.

My brother also mentioned this as a possibility, that I would perhaps see a dip in my cash game profitability if I chose to do this. Honestly, I am sort of expecting this to happen for awhile, and I am okay with that if it means a better long term outlook for poker profitability. But I am confident that I can recover from any initial effects, and that after I started to get better at the HU SNG format, I would be able to go between the two really well (turning a switch on and off, so to speak). I don't know that I really want to stop playing cash games altogether during this operation, but if that is something you think I should do, let me know why you think so.

One thing that I am going to do is to use an account that is dedicated to this operation, on a poker system that I've only very recently (in the last two weeks) had any experience. I am hoping that different interface will allow me to subconsciously recognize a difference in modes somewhat, i.e. when I'm on poker system A, I play cash games, while on B, I play HU SNGs. This approach (separate account) might be overkill, so if you think so let me know.

When it comes down to it, in the long run, I want to be able to play in profitable games, whether that means 4000 player MTTs, 6MAX cash games or HU SNGs. If I'm playing a cash game and get challenged by a player to a highstakes HU SNG because I delivered him a bad beat or two, I want to be able to accept that invitation, confident in my skills in the challenged format, with a greedy, shitty smile on my face.

Thanks again for the comments, DogOMS. I want this operation to be as clear as possible to all people, not just myself, because I think I would have a better chance of success if I can explain it to others around me well.

[DogOnMySide]

I like the one site for cash and one for tournaments idea. I did that myself for a while before realising that my meagre (well, <$1000) bankroll would be better consolidated in one place to play the games i'm good(ish) at... SnGs

I know what you're trying to accomplish with this - accountability to others in order to give yourself discipline. If you feel like people are watching you're more likely to stick to your rules. Same reason I started my blog.

Anyway keep us posted on your wins

[alias2211]

It was suggested to me that I not risk more than 10% of my bankroll in any given day while playing SNGs. This is also my rule of thumb for cash games, although I seldom let it get even that bad before calling it a day. Since I am starting w/ $1k that would mean $100 limit to start out, leaving me with a possibility of playing only two separate $50+2.50 heads up SNGs. Is this too restrictive given my schedule outlining how I'll be moving up or down? Any modifications to the 10% rule for exclusively playing HU SNGs?

[Rockymv]

Heads up SNG's are the worst. They are high variance and have an enormous rake.

[alias2211]

Thanks Rocky. I noticed from previous posts of yours that you advocate for at least 50 buyins, so I'll take that into consideration here that you think my buyin schedule isn't correct. But relatively speaking, isn't the HU rake structure slightly more favorable than the 6MAX one? Here is how I'm looking at it, please tell me what I'm doing wrong:

Let's compare a 6 handed SNG payout and a HU payout on a $100 SNG. Let's also assume that all players are equal skill, for the purpose of eliminating skill as a variable and to focus on rake effect on profitability:

For the $100 + $9 6 handed game:
-assumes a $420 payout on 1st, $180 on 2nd place

1/6th of the time I will Net +$311 by winning (420 - 109 =311 profit)
1/6th of the time I will Net +81 by getting 2nd place (180 - 109 = 81 profit)
2/3rds of the time I will lose $109

This means, given the rake ratio and assuming all skill levels are the same,
that I will lose $34/6 games.

For the $100 + $5 Heads Up SNGs:
-assumes the winner earns $200

1/2 the time I will net win +$95 (200 - 105 entry = $95 profit)
1/2 the time I will lose $105

to compare the same rate as 6 handed SNG, I have to assume 6 games (rate stays the same, but it has to be compared against the same quantity) so:

for 6 games, I will win 3, or Net $95x3 = +$285
for 6 games, I will lose 3, or Net $105 = -$315

This means, given the rake ratio and assuming all skill levels are the same,
that I will lose $30/6 games to rake.

This makes me believe that I will pay $4 less for 6 HU SNGs than I would pay for 6 6MAX SNGs, making HU SNG rake more profitable long term by being less costly to me. Can you deconstruct what I'm overlooking?