Big draw vs. solid player raising the shit out of me

[Phantaroth]

Notes - no reads, but I took his bet pattern to mean "I have a big pair or better, and I think you have two diamonds and I want you to foldddddddd"

No "fold preflops" I don't care about your starting requirements. Postflop onlyyyyyyy.

Stage #497624347: Holdem No Limit $0.50 - 2006-11-20 19:50:50 (ET)
Table: FLINT (Real Money) Seat #1 is the dealer
Seat 1 - BALDRICH ($99.25 in chips)
Seat 2 - SKUZBUBBLES ($95.25 in chips)
Seat 3 - SCJINX ($21.30 in chips)
Seat 4 - BENMARK98 ($170.25 in chips)
Seat 5 - SUPER_MONKEY ($75.30 in chips)
Seat 6 - PORKANDB ($117.55 in chips)
SKUZBUBBLES - Posts small blind $0.25
SCJINX - Posts big blind $0.50
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to SUPER_MONKEY [Qd 9d]
BENMARK98 - Folds
SUPER_MONKEY - Calls $0.50
PORKANDB - Raises $2.50 to $2.50
BALDRICH - Folds
SKUZBUBBLES - Folds
SCJINX - Calls $2
SUPER_MONKEY - Calls $2
*** FLOP *** [7d 10c Jd]
SCJINX - Checks
SUPER_MONKEY - Bets $3
PORKANDB - Raises $9 to $9
SCJINX - Folds
SUPER_MONKEY - Calls $6
*** TURN *** [7d 10c Jd] [2s]
SUPER_MONKEY - Checks
PORKANDB - Bets $17.50
SUPER_MONKEY - Calls $17.50


This hand seems very icky to me. I think I should fold or be more aggressive with this big of a draw, but after he re-raised my flop I decided to try and keep the pot as small as possible and see the turn and the river.

What do you do?

[salsa4ever]

bet bigger on the flop. The pot's about $8, so bet $6. What's a $3 bet going to do? It's going to invite me to raise it to $13.

If you bet $6, then he would have to raise bigger and then you could push and take a bigger pot.

As played, I can't see you going far wrong pushing the flop. Pot's big enough to maximize fold equity and based on the dead money if you can win 40% of the time when called and get a fold 10% of the time, then you're gonna come out ahead. These numbers are really conservative... I expect to win 45% when called and fold 20% against loose villain and win 40% when called and fold 40% against tight one.

[Galapogos]

Get it all in on the flop, you're the favorite. Don't shut it down with the call, raise again.

[salsa4ever]

actually, i've run some numbers and here's your equity against some likely holdings:

JJ (Top set): 40.30%
KcKs (kings overpair): 48.38%
AsJh (TPTK): 61.92%
AdTd (Nut flush + Pair): 27.88%
JsTs (2 pair): 50.00%
8s9s (made straight): 52.28%

So assuming a range of TT JJ QQ KK AA AJ as per your read I think you're about 50/50. So it's a no brainer - bet the flop bigger and push the flop... get the money in the as fast as possible.

[nutsinho]

no offense but how can you possibly not 3 bet huge on this flop

[Ash256]

A missed fourth street halves the value of your draw..

Why let it get to fourth street?

[Halv]

actually, i've run some numbers and here's your equity against some likely holdings:

JJ (Top set): 40.30%
KcKs (kings overpair): 48.38%
AsJh (TPTK): 61.92%
AdTd (Nut flush + Pair): 27.88%
JsTs (2 pair): 50.00%
8s9s (made straight): 52.28%

So assuming a range of TT JJ QQ KK AA AJ as per your read I think you're about 50/50. So it's a no brainer - bet the flop bigger and push the flop... get the money in the as fast as possible.

I think we need to add this to the range;
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.4646 % 26.46% 00.00% { Qd9d }
Hand 2: 73.5354 % 73.54% 00.00% { AdKd }

Our overall equity doesn't change much, though, and the advice stands - push flop.

[Phantaroth]

no offense but how can you possibly not 3 bet huge on this flop

No offense taken, I agree I played it very badly. Everyones advise is good, this is definantly a spot I need to be more aggressive in.

In general I usually don't like to be too aggressive with draws, even huge draws, I raise them all but getting re-raised scares me into slowing down.

So I shall work on this.

[flotu]

I agree with everyone advocating a push on the flop. Also, I hate the limp call preflop from UTG+1, this flop and when you flop a straight or flush will be the only easy ones.