ensign_lee's Quest to be Better Than a Coinflip Week 3! 14-14-1, +2.14 units

[ensign_lee]

I don't think anyone even knows that the online gambling forum of FTR exists, so I talked to 'Rilla and I'm going to put my weekly NFL thread here. At the end of the week, it'll be moved to the online gambling forum.

I transitioned from poker to sportsbetting several years back and I'm hoping that this thread can help spark discussion and maybe some people who never understood sportsbetting can ask me questions and learn a little more about it. Who knows, maybe you'll find that you like it too.

It's similar to poker in a lot of ways. For instance, there are a lot of things out of your control, similar to the fact that the cards are out of your control once two players are all in and there are no more bets to be made. Critical thinking is important as to why certain things happened (why is the line moving this way?).

So yeah, hopefully this helps some of y'all understand how sportsbetting works and how a handicapper thinks. Obviously, feel free to ask questions and if you don't understand something I'm doing, I'll do my best to elaborate.
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YTD: 14-14-1
Units Won: 2.14

Well SF really let me down, oof. I don't usually do well in games where the favorite wins but doesn't cover, since I subscribe to the theory that you'll come out ahead just betting the underdog straight up rather than with points.

Oh, and turning the ball over 4 times, 3x in the opponent's 30, REAAAALY doesn't help. lol

14-14-1. Looks like I'm the epitome of a coinflip thus far! lol.

Oh well, new week. Here we go.

Putting this one up early because I think the line will surely go higher. Texans/Cowboys OVER 46.5 (-110)
1 unit at Betphoenix

And, what I call a straddle. Betting the favorite and over and the dog and under in the same game when the spread and total are really close together.

New England Patriots -7.5, OVER 21.5 (1st Half)
3.31 units to win 9.28 units at Betphoenix

Buffalo Bills +7.5, UNDER 21.5 (1st Half)
3.31 units to win 9.28 units at Betphoenix

I lose when the game goes dog/over or favorite/under. But I think it's +EV to take this situation when it comes along, especially since I've got the half points in good places and the spread is almost 35% of the total.

Taking another straddle on the same game. 14.5/42.5 ~ 34%, and since each side ends on a half point (so it can't tie), I'm thinking that it's worth it.

NE -14.5, OVER 42.5 (+273.33)
3.2 units at BetMania to win 8.75 units

BUF +14.5, UNDER 42.5 (+260.6)
3.9 units at Skybook to win 10.18 units

Yeah, I know the wager amounts are a little lopsided, but the odds weren't exactly in sync because of the odds of the individual legs of the parlay and I had some extra money that I threw in at the end just to add to the parlay.