3-bet pots...I'm usually lost, here are 2

[minSim]

------------------
HAND #1
------------------
Villains was 15/12/3.5 after 50 hands. I had no history with him.

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

CO: $23.25
BTN: $36.60
SB: $31.95
BB: $24.90
Hero (UTG): $35.80

Pre-Flop: Q Q dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero raises to $1, 3 folds, BB raises to $3.25, Hero calls $2.25

Flop: ($6.60) 8 J 2 (2 Players)
BB bets $4, Hero calls $4

Turn: ($14.60) 5 (2 Players)
BB bets $9, Hero ???


------------------
HAND #2
------------------
Villain was playing 32/19/2.4 over 82 hands. Again no specific history with him.
I think the seeuze is fine? What's my flop play and why?

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $4
Hero (BB): $27.95
UTG: $25.95
MP: $29.10
CO: $34.35
BTN: $28.90

Pre-Flop: 9 9 dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG folds, MP raises to $1, CO calls $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $4.50, MP calls $3.50, CO folds

Flop: ($10.10) 5 T A (2 Players)
Hero bets ???

[EzDuzIt]

hand 1: umm fold i guess?
hand 2: i think calling is better than squeezing here pre. as played i would cbet then shut down i think.

[thizzSantaCruz]

1) fold with no 3 bet history
2) b/f

[Galapogos]

hand 1: umm fold i guess?
hand 2: i think calling is better than squeezing here pre. as played i would cbet then shut down i think.

I agree, although with his stats, I think there's more value in a 3-bet than set mining unless he or CO is a station post-flop.

[sil693]

do we not raise the flop in hand 1? If not, then surely the only cards we are hoping to hit are the remaining 2 queens, in which case we should fold the flop.

By the way i have no idea if this is right, just my noob thoughts.

[EzDuzIt]

raising the flop turns the hand into a bluff pretty much

[sil693]

so why are we calling? are we hoping villain checks to us on the turn? apart from the 2 Qs left surely there's no good turn/river cards for us?

[EzDuzIt]

we are calling because he can have ak, maybe aq/1010. but he isnt going to call a raise with something worse unless there is something else we dont know

[Marshall28]

uhhh ... hand 1: on flop -- Hero Raises to commit. ALL DAY!!!

how can you even consider folding here? these villains are so bad that they will get it in w/ all sorts of random garbage, i could post 5 or 6 hands showing how bad people get it in. you have a monster, if you are having trouble w/ 3bet pots, it;s probably because you don't know why you are 3betting, or why you are calling a 3bet.

for example ... in hand 2 ... why are you 3betting 99? is it because you think you are ahead of his range? do you think he's calling worse often? do you think you will be in a good situation on the flop the majority of the time?

if the answer to most of these questions is no, then you probably shouldnt 3bet it. 3betting light really doesnt work well at micro stakes and i dont advocate it. having gone through playing these 25nl games myself a lot recently, i notice that (this is true all the way up to 100nl) players arent willing to put all the money in light preflop. for this reason, i stopped 4betting QQ and AK. my bottom line has paid dividends because of this. the problem w/ 3betting 99 is not that it's a bad play, it's just that the players at 25nl are so bad that they end up adjusting to your play correctly, but on accident. What they do is they call way way way too light, so they are in there w/ hands like KTo QJs A8o, etc .. then the eventual overcard flops and it's like ... they will never fold top pair, so you basically are just turning your hand into a bluff when you 3bet 99 at micros. imo at least. i call it every time to set mine, just fold if you miss or dont flop an overpr, make it really simple, and when players are better at higher stakes then you can start to experiment w/balancing your ranges.

so as to the QQ hand, u have to think ... why am i calling this 3bet? do i think im ahead? do i think im behind and im set mining? ... if i think im ahead and i flop an overpair .. i have zero reason to believe im not still ahead when he c-bets... WE EXPECT HIM TO C-BET HIS ENTIRE RANGE!!! for this reason raise and get the money in, if he has like AJ KJ QJ hes not folding, and if he turns up w/ aces, dont sweat it, it's gonna happen, it;s called a cooler. (even w/ how nitty he is, its still a cooler for the reason that at a 6handed game ... how often are you dealt QQ or a hand better than it? NOT OFTEN. so the times that you do get it, to assume you don't have the best hand, even when someone is playing aggressively, i think is a huge mistake.

[EzDuzIt]

marshall, a nit 3bet our utg raise from the bb. his range is very tight... like 10s+ and AQ+. if we reraise the flop he is folding everything that we beat. he doesnt have kj qj here.

[sil693]

Is it a bad thing if we raise and he folds?

[Roel]

Is it a bad thing if we raise and he folds?

Exactly. If he has AK we are letting him draw to six outs. We def don't want that.

But besides, as Marshall says, you are good here way to often to fold. Get it in preflop or on the flop. Lot of the times u take it down, if he shows up with AA or KK... shrug and rebuy. It happens.

As for the second hand, just cbet/fold 2/3 pot. He has a lower pp or sc here a lot.

[EzDuzIt]

ok well if we bet that flop its basically a bluff.

[Roel]

No way. We are charging AK and flush draws, and we are extracting value from AJ/TJ like hands. In my experience on 25NL (been a while though) there is no way he can only have AA/KK here.

Against AK (a likely holding here imo) this is def no bluff.

[Marshall28]

marshall, a nit 3bet our utg raise from the bb. his range is very tight... like 10s+ and AQ+. if we reraise the flop he is folding everything that we beat. he doesnt have kj qj here.

which brings me back directly to the first thing i said ... why are you calling preflop? if this dude is so nitty ... u think hes 3betting TT and JJ in this spot? if you do you cant fold because AQ and AK become parts of his range as well by default. if u r calling to setmine, its fine, just fold the flop if u miss. u just need to know WHY you are calling.

if TT JJ AQ AK are in his range then obv you should just be calling the flop and folding to further aggression, this is a bad way to play imo cuz its so passive, but if thats the way you interpret the situation, there isn't much else you can do.... besides tossing it preflop.

i get it in on this flop all day, happily, in this situation

[Roel]

Think this is right on. I haven't been posting here for that long, but the very first post i made EzDuzIt called me retarded for my play, but he made a very good point, because when i called preflop i didn't have a clue what i was going to do further down the line.

Whatever you do preflop, have a plan with your hand. Try to figure out before the cards come out what you are going to do when an ace flops, when all undercards flop, etc.

Make a plan and stick with it. Going to set farm? fine. Fold flop. Think u are good a large % of the time when u flop the overpair? fine. Raise the flop.

But what u are doing here is essentially floating. And I don't like that one bit. Your hand is way too strong for that. I'd say shove this, but that's just me.

Bottom line is: have a plan, and stick with it.

[Ash256]

Marshall, please can you post a couple of HHs where you've got it in vs. worse on this flop? I can see maybe AJ like 2% of the time but that's it.

[EzDuzIt]

especially when a 15/12 3bets yout utg raise from the bb.

also as far as set mining thats not exactly what we are doing.
on a low flop you could get it in on the flop and actually be good. and also you can call the flop because he has things like AK in his range that probably arent going to double barrel. who cares if its passive, if its the most optimal way to play it then thats what you should do.

[Roel]

Why would we want to call his AK when he is *not* going to double barrel?

[minSim]

Hand 1:

Marshall, if I had posted only preflop, would you really have put AJ, KJ, QJ, A8 etc in his range? I wouldn't and I don't think it is right.
I think his 3-bet range is more or less JJ+/AK, IMO. This is debatable tho.

I don't get it in often against AK or JJ at micros. If you are that's probably an image thing.
I agree that preflop is the first decision. I called because I expected JJ and AK to fold often to a 4-bet. This is also debatable. If you and/or other people see players getting it in here often with worse I agree shoving is better.

On to the flop. His flop bet is his whole range.
AK 16 combo's
AA 6 combos
KK 6 combos
QQ 1 combo
JJ 3 combos

I'm behind to 15 combos, split to 1 and ahead of 16. I still don't see a reason to raise or fold. If you do, please convince me.
With the range I put him on (which could be wrong) turn is a decision of how often villain would double barrel AK. I don't know if an unknown is often enough, I lean towards not.


Hand 2:

I 3-bet, instead of calling, because:
- I am decently ahead of villains opening range and COULD see him calling with worse sometimes. I also don't mind him laying down AQ or AJ, because he'll get some value out of me with those hands on some flops. (this is an interesting subject and if someone has any input on this argument for 3-betting I'm all ears)
- I don't like to play a quessing game postflop OOP against 3 OOPs.
- I don't mind only picking up the dead money preflop.
- When I'm called I still have a pretty good hand on some flops.

Comments om my reasons to sqeeuze are very welcome, as I'm not sure they are all correct ones.

The first very important thing to do is put villain on a sqeeuze calling range. I'm not sure we can make assumptions on villains preflop stats. He likes playing hands, so maybe we can say he COULD be calling with some SC's or small/med PP's or high A's. But I really don't know how often he'll have those.

Depending on his sqeeuze calling range, I can see both c/f and b/f being fine.
B/f would be both as a bluff against some T's and underpairs and to protect against bluffs from any other hands.
I'm not sure how valid those reasons to bet are tho.

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

1). felting the flop is your best option for a lot of reasons. A-K has a lot of equity against your hand, and as you explained this hand makes up a lot of his range. also, in order to profitably bluff in this spot in the future you want to be felting a fairly wide range of good hands here too. Q-Q is a necessary hand to add here to your value shoving range since your range is already going to be small given your calling range preflop is going to be tight.

btw a felt here is not a pure bluff, unknowns will show up with A-J/K-J in this spot at least some of the time.


2). without more information on your opponent, i think you can just give up on this flop. given his stats he seems fairly aggressive, so you can expect him to be felting some draws on this flop (which connects in some way with a lot of different broadway hands).

your logic for squeezing is sound, though one important reason i didn't see mentioned to squeeze here preflop is to widen your 3bet range so hands like A-A/K-K are more profitable.

one problem you may be having is that you are able to think of your opponents hand as a range but not your own. ISF has done some posts on this that have helped me out, in fact i'm pretty sure one of his recent strat posts talked about this at least briefly...

[minSim]

Thanks Vi.

Jeez, I had a whole comment written with Pokerstove results and stuff in it. But after all that I concluded pretty much that a flop shove is very likely best. That definately surprised me. These are some of my conclusions:
- AK will fold to a flop shove, but that's not that bad because it has decent equity against my hand and it's a large part of villains range....it'll give me the pot.
- If AQ is ever in his range, it will fold as well, so the more often it is in his range, the more I pick up the pot on the flop...which is of course good.
- TP will call a shove and that's very good as I'm ahead. I don't think he has it a lot, but nevertheless he has sometimes and that's ++EV.
- Any hand that beats mine will call my shove, and that's --EV for me.

In the end, because I pick up the pot quite often and I even sometimes get called by worse, the flop shove is +EV.

This made me realize that the general guidelines of "I'll only get called by better hands" or "WA/WB" are too general and become less and less applicable the bigger the pots get (relative to stack sizes).


Your point about me thinking only in ranges for opponents, and my own hand has a hand, is also spot on. I'm having trouble stopping myself from doing that....it'll be one of the things I want to focus on.
I'm actually quite hopefull it will open doors for me for new things to explore.

[martindcx1e]

No way. We are charging AK and flush draws

AK and flush draws are already being charged $4. Just because you didn't bet it doesn't mean they aren't being charged. It's the same thing as if they had checked and you bet $4 and they called. Also, they can't even have a flush draw on that flop. It's like betting KK on a rainbow A72 flop after you were the pfr. Betting is the easier option because we find out right away if we are ahead or not. But betting is not the most profitable option, because it's how you make the least money from worse hands.

In this hand AK or TT would likely check the turn after being called on the flop but may bet something we can call on the river if we check behind on the turn. Raising this flop ensures that we only make $4 from worse hands and get stacked by better hands.

[martindcx1e]

Thanks Vi.

Jeez, I had a whole comment written with Pokerstove results and stuff in it. But after all that I concluded pretty much that a flop shove is very likely best. That definately surprised me. These are some of my conclusions:
- AK will fold to a flop shove, but that's not that bad because it has decent equity against my hand and it's a large part of villains range....it'll give me the pot.
- If AQ is ever in his range, it will fold as well, so the more often it is in his range, the more I pick up the pot on the flop...which is of course good.

congrats making the least amount possible from AK/AQ

[minSim]

Thanks Vi.

Jeez, I had a whole comment written with Pokerstove results and stuff in it. But after all that I concluded pretty much that a flop shove is very likely best. That definately surprised me. These are some of my conclusions:
- AK will fold to a flop shove, but that's not that bad because it has decent equity against my hand and it's a large part of villains range....it'll give me the pot.
- If AQ is ever in his range, it will fold as well, so the more often it is in his range, the more I pick up the pot on the flop...which is of course good.

congrats making the least amount possible from AK/AQ

Thanks, I wouldn't get anymore anyway (except maybe for a turned T or rare Q).

[eugmac]

congrats making the least amount possible from AK/AQ

I'm not sure I follow. If you flat call here, and an A/K comes, you lose the pot. You yourself said that AK/AQ will not bet the turn after we flat call the flop, and MAYBE they'll fire something on the river when we check behind on the turn. But when we play it this way we give him 2 streets to catch us with 6 live outs. This is at least something that needs to be considered, is it not?

[martindcx1e]

ok then bet the turn when he checks if you are scared of not charging AK.

EDIT: I think we can all agree though that shoving only gets called by better hands like 98% of the time right?

[eugmac]

Chapter 9 of Theory of Poker: Win the Big Pots Right Away

[martindcx1e]

Chapter 9 of Theory of Poker: Win the Big Pots Right Away

How about don't bet/raise in WA/WB situations when worse hands will not call? I'm pretty sure that takes precedence.

[eugmac]

Also, very applicable to this very situation: Chapter 10, The Free Card.

Look at the Hold'em example on page 82.

"With two jacks you should bet in an attempt to win the pot right there, even if you think only a better hand will call. If you give your opponents a free card (with what would have been the best hand) and an ace, king, or queen falls on fourth street, you are clearly in trouble."

[eugmac]

Chapter 9 of Theory of Poker: Win the Big Pots Right Away

How about don't bet/raise in WA/WB situations when worse hands will not call? I'm pretty sure that takes precedence.

Sure, but we have to weigh this against the value we lose in letting opponents draw cheaply, and losing a pot that you could have otherwise won by betting/raising!

[martindcx1e]

Also, very applicable to this very situation: Chapter 10, The Free Card.

Look at the Hold'em example on page 82.

"With two jacks you should bet in an attempt to win the pot right there, even if you think only a better hand will call. If you give your opponents a free card (with what would have been the best hand) and an ace, king, or queen falls on fourth street, you are clearly in trouble."

Like I said before betting/raising is the easy option. If you don't mind giving up some EV to make your decisions easier than fine...just admit that it's not the most profitable decision.

[martindcx1e]

Chapter 9 of Theory of Poker: Win the Big Pots Right Away

How about don't bet/raise in WA/WB situations when worse hands will not call? I'm pretty sure that takes precedence.

Sure, but we have to weigh this against the value we lose in letting opponents draw cheaply, and losing a pot that you could have otherwise won by betting/raising!

i already said bet the turn then if he checks if you are worried about that. calling the flop bet is not letting him draw cheaply either.

[eugmac]

Also, very applicable to this very situation: Chapter 10, The Free Card.

Look at the Hold'em example on page 82.

"With two jacks you should bet in an attempt to win the pot right there, even if you think only a better hand will call. If you give your opponents a free card (with what would have been the best hand) and an ace, king, or queen falls on fourth street, you are clearly in trouble."

Like I said before betting/raising is the easy option. If you don't mind giving up some EV to make you decisions easier than fine...just admit that it's not the most profitable decision.

Please back up your statements with fact. Compare the two situations where our opponent bets at us with AK on the flop, and we chase him out of the pot (potentially losing value from when he bluffs us on the river), or flat calling and seeing the A or K fall on the turn, and having to give up on our already quite large pot.

So, let's see your EV calcs! I know I haven't done it, have you?

Of course I simplified the situation, we have to consider the rest of his range blah blah blah. But still, my point stands.

[martindcx1e]

i'm not sure what calcs you want to see. we have to deal with ppl drawing against our hand in poker. we don't ever shove just because we are afraid of draws. that's not the way to play poker, and i know you guys know that.

[minSim]

ok then bet the turn when he checks

I agree we shouldn't check behind turn, so where is my extra value from AK/KQ?

EDIT: I think we can all agree though that shoving only gets called by better hands like 98% of the time right?

I also agree we almost always get called by worse.
But there is more into it. We also pick up the pot very often....and never get outdrawn by AK or AQ. This translates with the "Win the Big Pots Right Away" thing of ToP.
If there also is a possibility that villain has AJs sometimes, our EV goes way up.

Calling is by far the best option if we:
1. really are only up to JJ+, AK alway here
2. and villain always folds AK to a shove
3. and never 2nd barrels without hitting

But raising/shoving gets better the more of the following are true:
- the more often villain 2nd barrels the turn without hitting
- and/or the more unmade hands he has that can outdraw us
- and/or the more worse hands he calls a flop shove with

Of course remaining stack sizes are important as well.

Somewhere out there is a breaking point. I guess it is quite hard to decide whether it is crossed in this situation.
But it is important to understand that it sure as hell can be better to shove when you're only going to get called by better hands.

[eugmac]

i'm not sure what calcs you want to see. we have to deal with ppl drawing against our hand in poker. we don't ever shove just because we are afraid of draws. that's not the way to play poker, and i know you guys know that.

More blanket statements! All i wanted was some sound reasoning, comparing both situations and theorizing which play has the most +EV. If you win the pot on the flop by raising, you win X. If you flat call and an A/K comes, and you fold to opp bet, you lose Y. Then you have to look at what hands you might get extra value out of through pushing. You also have to then consider opponent tendencies, are they gonna spew 3-streets by triple barreling you with a whiffed AK? Will he totally shut down after the flop bet is called and c/f?

I never said that raising the flop was the most +EV play, I haven't worked it out or anything. I was just asking for a more detailed, logical explanation instead of very general stuff.

[eugmac]

Calling is by far the best option if we:
1. really are only up to JJ+, AK alway here
2. and villain always folds AK to a shove
3. and never 2nd barrels without hitting

But raising/shoving gets better the more of the following are true:
- the more often villain 2nd barrels the turn without hitting
- and/or the more unmade hands he has that can outdraw us
- and/or the more worse hands he calls a flop shove with

Yeah but i think you got the second-barrelling conditions reversed. Obviously if he's gonna barrel us with A-high, we should let him.

[jyms]

Wow, Just Wow.

Hand one with QQ we have underrepresented our hand. We get Three bet by the BB and we flat. Why is anyone automatically putting this guy on AA or KK? We can't raise the flop now, since only better hands are continuing if we do (Stop raising into WA/WB situations). Letting someone draw to 6 outs is easy, since we are still ahead a ton here. Why would AA or KK donk the pot into us on the flop? I think this is AK almost all day with TT+ being most of the range as well. Don't flat with QQ in position preflop. I call down unless I see an overbet on the river.

Hand 2, You three bet so you need to C bet. If he flatted your three bet with Ax then good for him. Take this down now. You overrepped your hand and getting to showdown will not be as good as taking this down on the flop. If and Aggro flats the flop, look out.

[martindcx1e]

ok then bet the turn when he checks

I agree we shouldn't check behind turn, so where is my extra value from AK/KQ?

AK might call a 1/2 pot bet on the turn.

[martindcx1e]

But raising/shoving gets better the more of the following are true:
- the more often villain 2nd barrels the turn without hitting
- and/or the more unmade hands he has that can outdraw us
- and/or the more worse hands he calls a flop shove with

1) EDIT: what eug said. we want him to bluff us.
2) He is already being charged to draw on the flop. He bet $4. He is being charged about 60% of the pot already.
3) Most have already agreed that a worse hand calls a shove an extremely small percentage of the time.

[eugmac]

I'm confused, why should we tend to chase him out if we have a specific read that he's bluffy?

[jyms]

Couple things to respond to.

AK has 6 outs yes, but we want him to draw to 6 outs. That's 24% to hit. We win.

If we check behind on the turn and the river is a blank, AK bets, TT bets. Save the money you would raise with and use it to call a river bet. You may just get paid by worse. Don't raise to find out where you are. Find out at showdown for the same amount or less.

[martindcx1e]

I'm confused, why should we tend to chase him out if we have a specific read that he's bluffy?

Ya that is kinda weird. If we don't have a read we are folding to 2nd barrels. If we do have that read then we are calling them. We have to assume that he isn't double barreling light here. You are right eug.

[jyms]

Yea, I check behind and call a river bet. If he 2 barrels I am done. Saves us more money by hands that beat us and makes us more against hands we beat. Fold to a second barrel.

[martindcx1e]

Couple things to respond to.

AK has 6 outs yes, but we want him to draw to 6 outs. That's 24% to hit. We win.

If we check behind on the turn and the river is a blank, AK bets, TT bets. Save the money you would raise with and use it to call a river bet. You may just get paid by worse. Don't raise to find out where you are. Find out at showdown for the same amount or less.

TJ

[jyms]

It all comes down to "win money not pots"

How do we get paid by worse hands? AK, AQ, TT?
How do we lose less to AA, KK, JJ, and 88.

[martindcx1e]

we should have a sticky for like best threads or something instead of just all guides. these types of situations are really important, and the concept of wa/wb needs to be drilled into everyone's brains. this reminds me a lot of gabe's legendary thread about KK with an A on the flop.

[eugmac]

I think what makes KK with an A an extreme example is that not many cards can come that devalue our hand (i.e. overs, draws). With such a dry flop like this case in the OP, I suppose it is just one of those cases, where opp is drawing to 6 outs at best, or we're drawing to 2. Have I understood it correctly?

[martindcx1e]

I think what makes KK with an A an extreme example is that not many cards can come that devalue our hand (i.e. overs, draws). With such a dry flop like this case in the OP, I suppose it is just one of those cases, where opp is drawing to 6 outs at best, or we're drawing to 2. Have I understood it correctly?

ya gabe's example is more extreme but the same concept applies here.

[eugmac]

Ok just as an interesting contrast:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...nd-t68384.html

Compare and discuss!

[eugmac]

I think what makes KK with an A an extreme example is that not many cards can come that devalue our hand (i.e. overs, draws). With such a dry flop like this case in the OP, I suppose it is just one of those cases, where opp is drawing to 6 outs at best, or we're drawing to 2. Have I understood it correctly?

ya gabe's example is more extreme but the same concept applies here.

Also it was the fact that it was a SNG, where an A is 99.999% of the time not folding. If we were 200bb deep in a cash game, if we show aggression with our KK on the flop after we've PFR, you'll might see live cash game players fold A5s face up, automatically crediting us with AK/AQ.

[mixchange]

Also, very applicable to this very situation: Chapter 10, The Free Card.

Look at the Hold'em example on page 82.

"With two jacks you should bet in an attempt to win the pot right there, even if you think only a better hand will call. If you give your opponents a free card (with what would have been the best hand) and an ace, king, or queen falls on fourth street, you are clearly in trouble."

Like I said before betting/raising is the easy option. If you don't mind giving up some EV to make your decisions easier than fine...just admit that it's not the most profitable decision.

you are also forgetting RIO

minisim its been awhile since I played 25nl but I remember people with 15/12 stats having supertight 3betting ranges -- qq+ so I would just setmine in this spot unless u have history enough on his 3bet range to know it includes AK. Maybe 25nl has gotten better but vs. unknown I hate calling off my stack here

problem with pokerstove in this spot is that it isn't weighted for villain's range for 25nl, so I would not bother

[eugmac]

what's RIO?

[mixchange]

reverse implied odds. EV of worse hand calling = the extra $ - the odds he catches up and we have to pay it off

[martindcx1e]

Ok just as an interesting contrast:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...nd-t68384.html

Compare and discuss!

well i guess the difference in that hand is that villain can have at least 3 worse hands that are likely to call a shove.

[minSim]

Thank you for your input.
Here's my full analyses, which I think will surprise some or most. It did surprise me.


First let's assume villains range here is JJ+,AK.
If it's even tighter than that there's no discussion and hero should fold flop.

EV of shoving flop and getting called by JJ+, and AK folds: -2,39$.

When the following plays after calling the flop bet;
- Villain bets non-A/K turn with JJ+ or better, hero goes all-in, villain calls.
- Villain checks non-A/K turn with A/K, hero goes all-in, villain folds
- Villain bets A/K turn with TP+, hero folds.
- Villain checks A/K turn with QQ (or worse, but he doesn’t have that in his range), hero checks behind, river checks through as well.
- Villain bets a Q or J turn when he has AK (straightdraw) and goes all-in with us.
- Villains bets a FD with AKs on turn and gets all-in with us
- EV is -1,62$

EV when villain does not bet a Q/J turn with AK, but instead folds it to our shove; -2,26
EV when villain also check/folds a FD on the turn with AKs; -2,29$

EV of checking behind a non A/K turn (villain bets his draws);
- and folding to a river bet on a A/K river.
- villain checks a non-A/K river with AK and calls a 6$ river bet always or bets it himself and we call
- EV is -0,52


Conclusion:
- With a very tight range of JJ+, AK for villain, calling flop is slightly better than shoving.
- Checking behind turn then and hoping for some value on the river is better than betting turn yourself.
- Hero’s best play is very likely folding.

If villain bluffs turn with AK, without a SD/FD, calling becomes worse.

If villain ever has AQ, TT or any other worse hand, shoving flop varies from slightly to a lot better than calling and becomes +EV pretty fast.

This analyse has not taking into account any metagame/shania value, which Vi-Zer0skill did and is possibly around, especially at higher stakes.

[wufwugy]

1. No history 15/12 3bets UTG raise from BB? Uh yea folding preflop isn't even gonna be that big a mistake if at all. Not like he has anything worse than AK. I'll probably play same and fold turn though. Adding in metagame (range balancing and image stuff basically) changes this, but only if applicable. There's a reason they're called nits.

2. 3bet only if we are doing it for VALUE. 99 is great multiway in raised pots, but actually terrible in 3bet pots when we're unsure. In this hand, we're unsure. We're ahead of villain's range, but we do not know how much, and we're unsure about his squeeze-calling range and postflop tendencies. A 32/19 is likely to play kinda weird here. If we 3bet we must felt many boards post, which may not be too bad.

I think we can flat preflop and do a little c/c on some boards at least. This can sometimes easily exploit overs that missed flop yet don't barrel anymore, and we can pick up some great bluffing spots imo. Very important here is not playing scared money since if we just play ABC we're giving up important value.