50nl - semibluff vs. shorty

[grnydrowave2]

Villain is 30/5/1

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP ($60.05)
CO ($53.55)
Hero ($49.25)
SB ($36.85)
BB ($13.30)
UTG ($64.05)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4, 5.
3 folds, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) J, Q, T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $12

So with a loose shortstack in the blinds, perhaps I should fold this preflop. That aside, how bad is this on the flop? I don't think he needs to fold that often for this to be +EV, but I haven't done the math.

[Deanglow]

I would raise less preflop and just bet/fold the flop tons smaller.

[grnydrowave2]

Alternative lines are welcome, but what I'm more interested is the merit of the hand as played. Should I have posted this in the strat forum?

[mixchange]

id prefer a check. he's felting anything he paired and he is ahead. he folds if he missed.

[grnydrowave2]

id prefer a check. he's felting anything he paired and he is ahead. he folds if he missed.

% wise, how much of his range do you think calls the shove?

[vaks]

that board hits his range more than not.
ur 37% win this hand against his range on that flop.


I think this bet is pointless also, because villian prob isnt folding a Q or a J, you pretty much made your hand transparent imo.
and that bet is completly worthless.
if you hade a 3$ bet it would accomplish the same thing, but instead your throwing out an extra 9$ to do what a 3$ bet can do?

If villian calls 3$ you know this hit his range, if villian calls 9$ you know this hits his range... accomplishes the same thing, and on a board like this I dont like small flushes... so many possible draws for villian out there

[grnydrowave2]

that board hits his range more than not.

villian prob isnt folding a Q or a J

I disagree. What do you think his range is then, and what reason do you have to believe that he'll stack off with 2nd pair?

[reprisal]

Because a 30/5 with 20BB is assumed retarded until proven otherwise. As played you validate some of his other likely mistakes, like calling with a straight or flush draw where he will still be a head.

Merits as played: he has to fold a lot, when he calls you have a pretty good chance of knocking out the short stack, and perhaps most importantly its a nice cheap way to get a spewy image.

[b-rabbit]

that bet is completely worthless.
if you made a 3$ bet it would accomplish the same thing

[grnydrowave2]

You are all missing the point. Perhaps I should have been more clear. The question here is whether the shove is +EV or -EV. I have since found the answer for this myself, and I would be happy to explain my reasoning, but first I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts about it.

[bair]

you shouldnt be asking if a shove is + or - ev. you should be asking if other plays are more +EV than shoving. but, to answer your question, i think shoving is -ev. hes obviously bad, he has station tendencies (loose-passive shorties tend to be), he might be very likely to stack off with a Q, J, K, hearts. your hand sure sucks dick, and your bet-size puts more weight in your range towards draws than a smaller bet would.

[mcatdog]

don't raise to 4x preflop with 54 suited when the big blind is a calling station with a short stack

[grnydrowave2]

you shouldnt be asking if a shove is + or - ev. you should be asking if other plays are more +EV than shoving.

I'm well aware that pushing is not the optimal play here. I'm not interested in the hand itself per se, but a particular concept that I've been experimenting with recently.

[grnydrowave2]

don't raise to 4x preflop with 54 suited when the big blind is a calling station with a short stack

I've already addressed this, but thanks.