Calling for value with overpairs

[freechus9]

After a chat with a fellow FTR'er, I decided to post this hand. I think its a common situation that I struggle with, and I think that many others might struggle with it too.

Villain is a TAG, 17/15/5.6 no other reads (sorry Jyms).

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($49.25)
Button ($18.35)
SB ($59.55)
BB ($61.60)
UTG ($82.65)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J, J.
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, BB raises to $7

At this point, villain RR a lead from the UTG. I'm running 16/13/4 and have been 3-betting light from the blinds, but other than that I think I seem like a solid player. I put villain on JJ-AA/AK/AQs, STD reraising range from a TAG. Throw in SCs once in a while, but by and large he has a strong range. My hand is strong against his range and can play postflop, so I call.

Hero calls $5.

Flop: ($14.25) 3, 5, 2 (2 players)
BB bets $7.5

Villain leads for 1/2 pot. This could be a c-bet, but could also be a real hand trying to keep the pot under control. Villain c-bets probably 80% time he misses, and 95% of the time when he has a high PP. Therefore I call and "reevaluate" on the turn (the quotes because I don't have a solid understanding of this).

Hero calls $7.50.

Turn: ($29.25) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $15, Hero folds.

W/o a read, I have to assume that villain has a hand most of the time, so I fold this almost 100% of the time. However, lets assume that the turn is a brick instead.

Turn: ($29.25) 7 (2 players)
BB bets $15

Again, w/o a read, I have to assume villain has a hand. I say I fold this 80% of the time, and 20% of the time I call, reflecting on a possible 2-barreling scheme for the villain.

Hero folds.

However, what is the best play if villain doesn't bet again? He might have a high overpair hoping to induce a bluff and c/r, or might have had nothing at all in the first place. In either case, I think if he checks the best play is to check behind, and call 90% of river bets to catch bluffs and get value from TT/99.

So, that was my attempt and understanding this hand. Please correct me if any of this analysis is wrong.

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

i mostly agree with your analysis for how you would play all streets including different turns versus this relative unknown.

question: can you elaborate on what you mean when you say that BB has a real hand on the flop where he wants to keep the pot under control?

[freechus9]

i mostly agree with your analysis for how you would play all streets including different turns versus this relative unknown.

question: can you elaborate on what you mean when you say that BB has a real hand on the flop where he wants to keep the pot under control?

What I meant was a made hand that is vulnerable. e.g. TT-QQ where an A or a K on the turn can easily kill action. Maybe this is dumb?

[pankfish]

i agree folding to the 4 because A high made up most of his range we beat anyway. If the 7 falls I don't think I'm laying down on the turn to a half pot bet. Probably call and fold to a river shove. Reverse roles, what is the cut offs range given action so far? Is the cut off capable of floating this flop?

[Fnord]

If the 7 falls I'm all-in.

[freechus9]

If the 7 falls I'm all-in.

What range do you put villain on then?

[pankfish]

If the 7 falls I'm all-in.

What range do you put villain on then?

What range does villain put you on? I imagine JJ is at the very top of your range and you are playing a very passive line with it. Double barreling half pot makes a lot of sense because it doesn't look like it will take much to get you to fold. You look like you are floating or 77 begging for a cheap showdown.

What real hand wants to keep the pot under control? Not AA or KK. QQ? maybe.

[frosst]

how many 17/15 villians 3 bet light OOP at these stakes?
as for the flop.......
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.147% 53.74% 02.41% 143634 6447.00 { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
Hand 1: 43.853% 41.44% 02.41% 110772 6447.00 { JJ }

yes, the opponent is very aggressive which could easily mean he's c-betting, but even the ace high broadways have 10 outs on us. I'm gonna try to get it all in on the flop. To answer your question about the turn play, I'm with fnord. With his aggression, he's likely to fire an all in on the river regardless of the card. What if that card is Q or K and you underestimated his range (maybe he'll 3 bet 66+) you just lost EV with your hand that you had on the turn. Plus, it doesn't matter if the villian calls or lays down on the turn to your shove because either is +EV on THIS board. He's likely to call with those broadways, and if he folds you win the pot.

[pankfish]

how many 17/15 villians 3 bet light OOP at these stakes?
as for the flop.......

Almost all of them.

[guitarizt]

If the turn bricks I'd call the turn and fold to a bet on the river. Is that spew?

[minSim]

how many 17/15 villians 3 bet light OOP at these stakes?
as for the flop.......

Almost all of them.

Sorry, but this is not true, at least not on Stars 50NL like this hand.
Some do, some don't. Keep track of them, or use a HUD that does it for you. What I have seen I think about 15% of the 17/15 type players 3bet lighter then AK+/JJ+ but there are very few that really 3bet light.