Playing big draws passively

[Silly String]

I felt durty playing these draws soooo passive. I usually CR or b/3bet the flop here with the intention getting AI, but I'm trying to figure out when I'm best to make a hand before putting money in? On my last trip to Vegas I learned I over estimate fold equity too much & was learning how to get paid after making the hand rather than taking the short side of med-big draws.
Both of these hands feel like the fold equity was minimal due to villains nittyness & likely range and I felt I could get paid off pretty well if I hit my draw. Both villains were super tight over small samples. I joined the games after them so no real history and my image is solid if not tight. I ran 25/20/1.5 with A2S at 33% at that table. The 1.5 AF is measured after all the calling these hands so I probably looked more aggro in their HUDs at the time. I've shown nothing out of line yet.


Villain is 15/10/inf over 20 hands. As a tight cold caller I felt his range was limited to PPs, AJ+ & discounted SCs, Axs here. IMO, his interest by the turn shows he probably hit AK+ or there is a smaller chance he is betting a draw for which I have a couple of blockers. He has not 3bet so I can include a discounted QQ+, AK.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($57.75)
MP ($117.75)
CO ($51.55)
Button ($51.85)
Hero (SB) ($54.20)
BB ($50.75)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 10, J
UTG raises $1.75, MP calls $1.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($5.75) 6, Q, A (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP bets $4, Hero calls $4, 1 fold

Turn: ($13.75) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $9, Hero calls $9

River: ($31.75) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $22, Hero folds

Total pot: $31.75



Villain is 15/5/2 over 30 hands w/ A2S 15%. No other reads.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($62.25)
CO ($12.70)
Button ($52.85)
SB ($58.30)
Hero (BB) ($50)
UTG ($50.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, 7
4 folds, SB calls $0.25, Hero raises $1, SB calls $1

Flop: ($3) 6, 8, K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.50, SB raises $5, Hero calls $2.50

Turn: ($13) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $10, Hero calls $10

River: ($33) J (2 players)
SB bets $10, Hero folds

Total pot: $33

Looking back @ hand 2, since he limp/called I probably had a lot more FE than I thought, but his flop/turn actions make me feel like he flopped a monster. But the river makes me think he missed a draw. But would a 15/5 bluff?

[thizzSantaCruz]

hand 1: I raise flop with intention of getting it in. 20 hands is not a big enough sample to determine the player is a nit. We are only dominated by KQdd and Qxdd, and the player is probably cbetting this board at a high %.

hand 2: I raise to 18 here and shove turn trying to get him off a weak King.

[BigLRIP]

1) Really dislike this, especially OOP. Nits might even fold AK here to a turn shove after you check raise. I think you should check shove turn if you got there after check calling flop, but the best line IMO is check raise flop.

Edit: just realized UTG check folded. Check raising is still the way to go IMO.


2) I could go either way on this one. I probably play it aggressively more often than not though.

[v diddy]

I think the redraw on both hands makes it easier to be aggressive on the turn. Not sure I call pre-flop from the SB blind in the 1st hand though without much info on the villains (maybe that's just me).

[griffey24]

I think too many people get stuck up on the idea of c/c or c/r being the only possible options OOP.

Hand 1 - I LEADDDD (just like I would lead with AQ) and I barrel. If raised, obviously shove flop.

Hand 2 - I 3bet/get it in on the flop sometimes. Flatting is also fine, vs players that are spewy bluffy and then jamming over their turn bets. As played, he sounds like a nit and I don't mind how you played this.

[bjsaust]

People generally dont fold to bet/3-bet at 50nl, so its easy to overestimate FE. If you're going to do it, you need really good equity in the hand.

[nutsinho]

1: i also lead the flop. you could even consider leading the turn

2: i like how you played it

[Silly String]

I guess I was really trying to spur discussion about when to play a big draw(non-OESFD) passively rather than just getting as much money in on the flop. I usually play these hands fast on the flop, but I thought they might be decent examples of when not to play a big draw AI on the flop.
I felt that in both examples above the villains' stats/ranges and lines were strong enough that FE may not exist or I may not have a full 45%+ equity. Maybe I'm wrong in that assessment, but I kinda wanted to discuss the when's & where's, not the specific hands. OR are we always playing them fast.

[meeloche]

I think you're thought process for these is fine.

1) I would lead the turn.

2) I would probably play same.

It's great for your game to be able to play draws passive and aggressively cause it keeps your ranges nice and wide.

[thizzSantaCruz]

1: i also lead the flop. you could even consider leading the turn

What are the advantages to leading here? The board is a very good board for UTG to cbet, so wouldn't we like to trap a cbet from him?

[Parasurama]

I generally like to play these big draws aggressively OOP and more passively IP.

Reasoning: It's much easier to get paid off when we're in position and hit because we can credibly represent a wider range.

Thoughts?

[Silly String]

Thank you Parasurama, that is exactly the light bulb moment I was looking for. You are exactly right.
Open firing that draw completing river makes it hard to get paid. Conversely, that is why turning a made(2nd best) hand into a bluff on the river can be so profitable at my stakes. Or drawing to the str8 & repping the flush.