i plat qq bad

[Pig_Vomit]

I play bad…

Villain is 10/8 3 bet 4% no interesting history.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

BB ($10.20)
Hero (UTG) ($26.90)
UTG+1 ($25)
MP1 ($52.40)
MP2 ($30.95)
MP3 ($25.45)
CO ($26.70)
Button ($4.45)
SB ($23.40)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, Q
Hero bets $1, UTG+1 raises $3, 7 folds, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($6.35) 8, 2, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $4.50, UTG+1 calls $4.50

Turn: ($15.35) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $7.50, UTG+1 calls $7.50

River: ($30.35) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $10 (All-In), Hero calls $10

Total pot: $50.35

Okay I don’t think I could have played this any worse. River call and turn bet are wtf retarded I know. On the flop I’m thinking a check raise gets the maximum value from his range and then I guess just c/f turn and river?

why do I want to fold PF

[Pig_Vomit]

Folding pf seems too nitty imo. I only had 70 or so hands on villain so I’m not sure how reliable the 3 bet stat is. Even still we’ve gots the equity. I guess you could argue reverse implied odds maybe? Like every time we’re ahead he folds flop and when behind I get myself into the situation above. I’m losing a lot with shitty over pairs that I play bad post flop. Is their a good semi pot control line you can think of for when villains range is really strong? Come to think of it what’s a good pot control line when oop? Just bet small? I feel like I get bluffed of too many hands when I check opp but making stupid blocker bet is probs what’s costing me monies.

well that's why you say 10/8 over 70 hands
I don't like being OOP, and just shoving it in pre sounds like a bad idea
also holy shit UTG+1 3b
I don't even play FR so this seems like the scariest shit in the world

[dragntail]

Hmm. He reraised your UTG raise from EP and with stats like 10/8/4 you can be sure it's not a steal. Personally I would say TT+/AK, might need to double check on Stove but it's about right. I would 4 bet pre as I'm not a fan of playing OOP here, if he comes over the top then I think you'll have to lay it down.

As played, on such a dry flop any overpair is going to call you if you lead so you still won't know where you are. Also, if he had TT you're now drawing for a 2 outer. I can see the advantages of a check raise here, if he had AK and bluffs, he'll fold to the raise. On the otherhand, if he calls, I guess it's c/f on the turn, you'll only ever get called by better here (and if he calls a C/R with JJ, well played to him).

Also, first post. Hello

[Stacks]

Fold Preflop. As played c/c flop. Check/re-evaluate turn.

[Parasurama]

Hmm. He reraised your UTG raise from EP and with stats like 10/8/4 you can be sure it's not a steal. Personally I would say TT+/AK, might need to double check on Stove but it's about right. I would 4 bet pre as I'm not a fan of playing OOP here, if he comes over the top then I think you'll have to lay it down.

As played, on such a dry flop any overpair is going to call you if you lead so you still won't know where you are. Also, if he had TT you're now drawing for a 2 outer. I can see the advantages of a check raise here, if he had AK and bluffs, he'll fold to the raise. On the otherhand, if he calls, I guess it's c/f on the turn, you'll only ever get called by better here (and if he calls a C/R with JJ, well played to him).

Also, first post. Hello

Hi, I used to think like you but now I know that 4b/folding QQ pre is awful

[dragntail]

Hmm okay. What's the best line here?

Fold Preflop. As played c/c flop. Check/re-evaluate turn.

Seems nitty. Surely QQ is 50% equity against his range?

Edit: Just ran it in Stove. It's more like 30-35% on the flop, depending on what range you put him on.

[Parasurama]

Well I think folding pre would suck because if you think his range is strong enough that you should fold you have set odds. Getting 13x against AA/KK is enough.

If you called for set odds then you can c/f flop even if it feels oh so dirty.

[Stacks]

Well I just noticed the small sample size OP gave (however, not in the original post). If it's over a larger sample size, then I fold preflop, and am okay with it. A 10/8 likely isn't 3betting an UTG raise from UTG+1 lightly. He definitely isn't 3betting TT/JJ, and likely not QQ, and maybe not AK. I doubt he will bluff in this spot, so that really leaves the two hands we don't want him to be 3betting with, AA/KK.

Without reads, I would fold, as I don't like 4betting, because if he is bluffing he will fold those hands, and we would only be getting it in against the hands we are a dog too. A call preflop would technically be +EV, based on our equity, and the pot odds we are being offered, since we have 40% equity against KK+, AK, and we must call $2 into a pot of what will be $6.35 so we only need ~31% equity to have BE call. However, this is overlooking how we are likely to get little value when we are ahead postflop, and can potentially lose quite a bit when behind (aka - being position raped).

Eitherway, I don't think preflop is that bad. I would likely fold, but I think a call is okay. And depending on his 3betting range, a 4bet/call might be profitable as well (if he is 3betting hands like JJ/AK and intending to stack off).

But postflop, I do not understand OPs logic in donking at all. Let's assume villain's 3betting range is KK+, AK. Donking this flop seems pretty terrible, as he will fold all worse hands (AK), and call all better hands (KK+). The same goes with check/raising. He will continue with KK+, and will fold out AK, which we beat. However, if we check/call, we allow him to bet both hands that beat us, and hands we beat. And we can easily check/fold Ace or King turns, while also giving him a chance to double barrel with AK on blank turns.

[dragntail]

But postflop, I do not understand OPs logic in donking at all. Let's assume villain's 3betting range is KK+, AK. Donking this flop seems pretty terrible, as he will fold all worse hands (AK), and call all better hands (KK+). The same goes with check/raising. He will continue with KK+, and will fold out AK, which we beat. However, if we check/call, we allow him to bet both hands that beat us, and hands we beat. And we can easily check/fold Ace or King turns, while also giving him a chance to double barrel with AK on blank turns.

So check/call flop as it stands, check/call turn if no A or K hits? Surely a passive line like that gives up pot control on a possibly marginal hand based on our villain's range? Furthermore, say we check/call the villain bets of 3/4 pot on the flop and on the turn (not unlikely if he held AA/KK or if he was 2 barrelling AK), we'll be pot committed by the river, and will be forced to call villain's shove on the end thanks to the immense pot odds (or at least I can't see how you can fold the river in that spot after calling the majority of your stack in by the turn). Incidentally, this gives the same result as our hero leading on the flop and the turn as shown in the HH. Am I missing something here?

[Stacks]

A c/c on a non-Ace/King turn would be dependent on whether or not villain (1) has AK in his 3betting range to begin with, and (2) if he will 2-barrel with it with a high enough frequency to make the call +EV. If we use the range {KK+, AK} for villain, which btw I would weight more heavily towards being just KK+ [10/8 3betting UTG raise], and we can assume he (1) folds AK to a donk bet, and to a check/raise, and (2) that he cbets AK when we check, then this is really easily solvable with some EV calculations.

Which I will do after I take my dog out to go shit.

Edit: Also what you seem to be overlooking is that while the pot size will be the same whether we bet the flop, or villain bets the flop, the action we decide (checking or betting) will affect his range differently. If we bet, we assume he folds AK. However, if we check, we assume he cbets AK on the flop some % of the time.

[Stacks]

I could be off with these EV calcs, as I haven't done them in a bit (leak). Anyways... Here they are:

Assumptions
(1) We are assuming Villains 3betting Range is {KK+, AK}. This is 28 combos, 16 we beat, and 12 we lose to.
(2) We assume that he isn't getting tricky (10/8 ftw). So, he will fold AK to a donk bet, and check/raise. And he will cbet AK if checked to.
(3) Assuming the above, this means when we bet he will fold 16 of the 28 combos, or 57% of the time.

We will use this formula to determine the EV of a bet: EV = (% he calls)*(EV[call]) + (% he folds)*(EV[fold]).

Donk Bet

EV[call] = (Our Equity when called)*(total pot) - (Amount we bet)
EV[call] = (.10)*(15.35) - 4.5
EV[call] = 1.535 - 4.5
EV[call] = -$2.965

EV[fold] = $6.35 (When he folds we win the pot)

So...

EV = (% he calls)(EV[call]) + (% he folds)(EV[fold])
EV = (.43)(-2.965) + (.57)(6.35)
EV = +$2.34

So a bet is +EV here, and on average you expect to make $2.34 on your bet. However, that doesn't mean this is the best line to take. We must now compare it to the EV of checking and calling.


Assumptions:
(1) If we check he will bet his entire range {KK+, AK}. Our equity against his range is now 47%.
(2) He bets the same amount we would have ($4.50).

Check/Call


EV[call] = (.46)(15.35) - 4.5
EV[call] = +$2.71

So a check/call here is more profitable than donk betting by $0.37c on average.

Check/raising a bit more difficult to do the EV calc for, but I'll try.

Assumptions:
(1) We c/r to $11.50
(2) He only continues with KK+, or 43% of the time.

Check/Raise:

EV = (% he calls)(EV[call]) + (% he folds)(EV[fold])

EV[call] = (Our equity)*(total pot) - (amount we bet)
EV[call] = (0.10)(6.35 + 11.5 + 11.5) - 11.5
EV[call] = (0.10)(29.35) - 11.5
EV[call] = 2.935 - 11.5
EV[call] = -$8.57

EV[fold] = 10.85

EV = (0.43)(-8.57) + (.57)(10.85)
EV = -3.6851 + 6.1845
EV = +$2.5

So a check/raise is also +EV here; however, it is still less +EV than a check/call. Now, I'm not certain if my math here is correct, as I have a few things going on, and I'm rusty. But if my math is correct, and if anyone wants to check it that would be great, then in order of the best line on the flop it would be:

check/call > check/raise > donk bet, with each only being slightly better than the other.

At the tables, I of course wouldn't be able to compute the exact EV of each action. My logic would follow along these lines. I assume his 3betting range is KK+, AK. A donk bet from me would only get called by better hands, and fold out the hands I beat. So I would lean towards a check. After he bets (assuming he bets $4.50 like we did), I would look at the pot odds I am being given, and compare that with my estimated equity. If my equity > pot odds, then I would call. If not, then I would consider if I have enough fold equity, and pot equity, to check/raise as a bluff.

If I don't have the needed equity to check/call, and I don't have the needed pot equity + fold equity to check/raise profitably, then a check/fold would be the correct play.

[Stacks]

Now that's a post. I just hope it isn't 100% incorrect. I would just like to add one more thing. If our assumptions are correct, then while the EV of our flop action whether we donk bet, check/call, or check/raise isn't that much different, our action will affect the turn action quite dramatically. If we can correctly assume that he folds AK to both a donk bet and to a check/raise, then assuming we don't hit a Queen on the turn, then we must check/fold turn to any bet that doesn't give us odds to call for our river set (likely we won't have those incredible odds).

However, if we check/call the flop, then not only is our flop action more +EV than if we had donk bet, or check/raised, but we can still make a 0EV play on any Ace or King turn by check/folding (same as if our donk bet or check/raise gets called). But now there is still a chance that we are ahead on a non-Ace/King turn, and he might double barrel AK, giving us another opportunity to make a +EV call.

[dragntail]

Wow, nice post Stacks. I don't have Chen's MoP with me right now, so I can't rigorously check all the calcs, I'll take your word for it atm. I think you hit the nail on the head about the AK folding to a donk bet and bluffing to a check, hence that makes all the difference to why your EV is higher for the check call.

As for the check raise, although I was surprised it was less +EV than a c/c, on closer inspection it makes sense; the assumptions you made (reasonably so) means a check raise won't get him to fold a better hand. On a final note, I guess this highlights the problems of playing a premium hand OOP.

[Stacks]

I'll admit I was surprised to see the EV of a donk bet and the EV of a check/call was as good as the calc shows. That's why I feel/felt my calcs might be wrong. Mainly because theory wise we always look at a bet being correct if it either (1) get worse hands to call or (2) folds out better hands. However, the donk bet in this example does the exact opposite, it gets called only by better hands, and folds out worse hands.

However, I suppose it makes sense given the equity his AK has if he sees the turn, and how our donk bet makes him forfeit his equity by not seeing future cards. The same goes for the check/raise.

Also, I must note that the EV of each equity goes down if the assumptions aren't correct. Such as our donk bet becomes more +EV if he calls AK some % of the time and we are aware of this. However, if he is calling Ak some % of the time and we think he is not then while the EV of the bet might not change, our EV on the turn will because we think his range is only KK+.

Same goes for check/calling. If the frequency with which he cbets AK decreases, then the EV of check/calling goes down.

stacks, we should assume he felts when we donk and he has KK+ so we have no equity
also, we never make it to the river when he has KK+ because he shoves the turn so c/c calcs are off since we're only peeling one card to see if it's a queen, ace or a king
then if he has AK he probably checks it back on the turn
if he has KK+ we don't get to see the river unless the turn is a queen

when we c/r he shoves KK+ and folds AK
I think these assumptions make c/c the best play but also put c/f really close

[Pig_Vomit]

Wow thanks for the great response guys. XxStacksxX your Ev calcs were particularly helpful and really shows your point interesting results though I guess its kinds marginal but also highlights how badly I need to start doing my own (being scared of math is stupid). After hearing everyone’s thoughts and thinking about it myself I’m liking the check call option or even fold pre but vulnerable overpairs opp are definitely a spot that I need to put a lot more thought and work into. It’s really interesting to me how much our actions effect villains range and its defs something I’ll have to keep in mind while playing.

Wat up dragntail