Can I Fold The Set??

[sk8r_daniel]

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hero is in CO, Dealt 5c5s
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain was running 12/11 over 200 hands or so and I had never checkraised a flop or turn, and had never seen him bluff. So I knew his raise was for value...

Stacks:
UTG ($52.15)
UTG+1 ($160.90)
MP1 ($96.70)
MP2 ($104.60)
CO ($109.98)
BTN ($44.84)
SB ($97.50)
BB ($108.05)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 8 players)
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, 1 fold, MP2 calls $3, CO calls $3, BTN calls $3, 1 fold, BB calls $2

Flop: ($15.50, 5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, CO bets $11, 1 fold, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $11, MP2 folds

Turn: ($37.50, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, CO bets $22, UTG+1 goes all-in $146.90, [color=#cc0000][b]

[Kbryce23]

yea

[pokerfan]

its a clear fold. You need at least 1:3 pot odds to call this shove with just the bottom set.

[Outlaw]

Snap fold

[sk8r_daniel]

sorry, i have never seen him checkraise...

[sk8r_daniel]

its a clear fold. You need at least 1:3 pot odds to call this shove with just the bottom set.

I don't get this. Isn't it about whether or not he has AA or KK? Why would i care about pot odds.

[Belt]

I'm a micro stakes player, so I may be missing something here... But the guy reps a very tight range. We only need 32% equity and against AA, 99-66 we have %36. We even don't need KK in his range. Can we really put this guy on only sets + str8? And also, I can't see any str8s in his range (except 88 of course).

I would have called this...

[pokerfan]

its a clear fold. You need at least 1:3 pot odds to call this shove with just the bottom set.

I don't get this. Isn't it about whether or not he has AA or KK? Why would i care about pot odds.

I rarely see FR nits turn AA/KK into bluff at this stake.You rep a very strong rang on the turn and the guy happily CRAI.Sorry,I don't think bottom set is good enough to call here. Maybe I call with Mid or top set here depending on game flow and his tendency blah blah.

[oskar]

I'm pretty sure you have less than 36% equity. I think his range is weighted mostly towards 77 and 88. This would be a really strange line with AA.

[pokerfan]

BTW,if you can't find the fold button and always get married to your set in these marginal situations vs nits,you will not improve your win rate drastically in the long run.

[sk8r_daniel]

I totally understand what his range is made up of and I know it would be really stupid for anyone to bet AA or KK like this...infact I knew he had the goods.

What I don't understand is the 36% equity you are talking about. Does that mean that he would have to show up with AA/KK 36% of the time for it to be profitable, since its such a huge overbet?

[spoonitnow]

Read this and all will be understood: http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...in-t87954.html

P.S. Ignore the "extra credit" portions.

[sk8r_daniel]

I feel like a noob

[spoonitnow]

You're supposed to.

[bikes]

lol @ betting this turn

[jaycism]

i would say its an easy lay down. too much money and you can always wait for a sure hand

[daven]

why are you betting the turn?

[sk8r_daniel]

why are you betting the turn?

Honestly... I was trying to put him on a range...while my time was running out quickly(Titan sucks for this) so i thought .. hey i have a set and now I'll bet...I'm so used to playing live, where the regs all limp 77 and 88 so maybe I was thinking he must just be playing AA really weird.

I just didn't factor that he is almost never going to have 2 pair or a drawing hand here and i'm probably already crushed. The bet also looks pretty bad because TT-AA(the only hands that I'm beating right now) may fold to the turn bet, but would call a river value bet.

[ljove]

yes you must fold here