2/4: squeezed pot river shove

[pocketfours]

Villain is 33/24 (11% 3bet) LAG over 100 hands. BU is 20/17 with 10% 3bet.

UTG ($339.50)
MP ($491)
CO ($402.70)
Button ($568.30)
Hero (SB) ($508)
BB ($400)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9, 10
2 folds, CO bets $12, Button calls $12, Hero raises to $56, 1 fold, CO calls $44, Button calls $44

Flop: ($172) Q, 8, 9 (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, Button checks

Turn: ($172) 3 (3 players)
Hero bets $115, CO calls $115, 1 fold

River: ($402) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $337 (All-In), 231.70 for villain to call.

[griffey24]

I can't tell if this is a bluff or a value shove? I think it's too thin for a value shove, especially since hearts came in. If hearts didn't come in, I'd probably check and re-eval river. I'd just check and hope for showdown here.

[pocketfours]

Do I have to put it in a category? I'm happy if he folds better and I'm happy if he calls with worse. I'm going to be playing a lot with these guys now and I like what this does to my image. Might be thin in a vacuum, but probably not terrible, right?

[Ravageur]

I definitely think this is a bluff, if you had 10s i think we could call this a two way bet (he could conceivably fold JJ and call with a 9) but whatever categorizing it isn't too important as you said. I think he folds 10s/Js a bit especially since the BD flush completed and you definitely have stuff like AKhh in your range as well as slowplayed J10/KK/AA though i'm sure they wouldn't think you'd shove KK/AA here since most of it's value is bluffcatching which would be an interesting spot in itself since everything got there.

Blah blah blah, i think this is a river c/fold but I seem to always be telling you that your plays are spews. Metagame wise i'm sure this has merit though.

[Poker Guru]

I think villain checks back worse and you have good showdown value. Maybe you can fold out some marginal hands, but not too many. So I like more a check on the river.

[pocketfours]

Is there value in my turn bet if I don't shove this river? I think I like c/f down or bet turn shove river, NOT bet turn c/f river.

[IowaSkinsFan]

It's a bluff, and it seems alright.

[Marshall28]

Couple things... this is 2/4, there is no one you should be concerned balancing against, so I wouldn't care what it does for my image to be able to show up w/ 9T here.

I think you are right that the turn bet is a losing bet if you don't bluff the river, but I think that's only true when the river isn't a card like another Q which is essentially the worst bluff card in the deck. If this were against someone good at 5/10, I could see this working, but not at 2/4.

[gabe]

couple things... This is 2/4, there is no one you should be concerned balancing against.

lol

[ATOTHEC101]

This seems really really bad too me.

[IowaSkinsFan]

You should always be concerned with balance

[Marshall28]

Myself and a couple players much better than me would argue differently.

[Marshall28]

Obv there's a difference between having the perception of balance and actually being balanced though.

[Marshall28]

lol

Since when do you have such respect for 2/4 opponents?

lol

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Bingo

[Renton]

as usual when i read threads in shnl, i hate preflop

You don't seem to have any sd value on the river, but I just don't think its gonna work enough for a bluff to be worthwhile. He probably can't have TT/JJ because he didn't try to get all in pre, so u are basically trying to make him fold T9s J9s A9s, and I think he has trips or a flush way more often than he has those hands.

[sauce123]

yea i hate preflop too unless its like absurdly loose opener and loose passive btn. its not. obv preflop cant be horrible and is +ev though.

flop check is fine, bet/folding isnt the worst thing in the world since your hand is fcked when you face a bet oop and you are drawing real thin when jammed on as the pfr here.

turn bet is fine, chk/call is fine too. bet is better probably.

river is fine if you jam for value, but thats really difficult