villain is an ok nit reg 12-10 with 3% 3b and high fold to steal. He has been moving up through stakes and is now mixing 25nl and occasional 'shots' at 50nl but he's sorta scared money. we have some history, i know he hasn't caught me bluff raising rivers before. He sees me as 18-13, 30% steal, low c-bet and kinda nitty post-flop. He has a low fold to cbet - mostly cos he always has a hand. I've stacked him once same session, different table, when i opened QQ and value bet 3 streets on Q48rb, 9, 2 vs his 99 turned set.

His range pre is like 44+/AQ+/KQs at its widest, but more likely AQ+/77-JJ. I steal pretty wide vs him, and he knows it and isn't folding here if i c-bet. I c-bet sometimes, sometimes don't vs him, kinda irrespective of my hole cards. I call turn cos he has 77 some of the time, TT/JJ sometimes, rest of his range sometimes - and basically i'm planning to steal the pot on any river unimproved - probably call any A or K river if he bets, and bet those cards if he checks. Thoughts? He's the type to be scared of TJ/two pair a bunch here and his sizing fits with him hoping for thin value.

bluff needs to work about half the time..


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($84.25)
UTG ($50)
UTG+1 ($50)
MP1 ($83.30)
MP2 ($50)
CO ($14.60)
Hero (Button) ($50)
SB ($51.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A
5 folds, Hero bets $1.75, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($4) 6, 4, 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($4) 8 (2 players)
SB bets $2.65, Hero calls $2.65

River: ($9.30) Q (2 players)
SB bets $6, Hero raises to $17,